Difference between revisions of "User:Achoicenotanecho/IR"
From Phyllis Schlafly Eagles
| (2 intermediate revisions by the same user not shown) | |||
| Line 1: | Line 1: | ||
[https://www.conservapedia.com/User:Conservative/Politics Politics] | [https://www.conservapedia.com/User:Conservative/Politics Politics] | ||
| − | |||
| − | + | [[User:Conservative/Politics|Politics]] | |
| − | + | == International relations and geopolitics YouTube channels, websites and podcasts == | |
| − | + | International relations: | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | *[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLB5965C13F4B0B2DA International relations course] | |
| − | + | Geopolitics: | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | === | + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZJFozFsnIU A Geopolitical Tour of the World] |
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUowNpYL120&list=PLbjmSS6LZDGpASOCJ9TAG_VvfMM3-rWq9 Geopolitics introduction] | ||
| − | + | '''Geopolitics and Empire''' | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | Geopolitics and Empire - Features people from the right, center and left (Conducts interviews with prominent international experts on a wide-range of topics. Past guests have included diplomats, government officials, whistleblowers, soldiers, spies, economists, academics, scientists, wealthy investors, dissidents, journalists, and musicians.): | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/ | + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@GeopoliticsEmpire/videos Geopolitics & Empire] |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | *[https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitics-empire/id1003465597 Geopolitics and Empire] - Apple Podcast | |
| − | + | *[https://soundcloud.com/geopoliticsandempire?_pxhc=1612166400404 Geopolitics and Empire] - Soundcloud | |
| − | + | '''Burning archive:''' | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@theburningarchive/videos The Burning Archive], YouTube (Former government worker who has studied world history) | |
| + | *[https://jeffrich.substack.com/ Burning Archive substack], Substack | ||
| − | + | '''Popular International relations and geopolitics:''' | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | ''' | + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics/videos Zeihan on Geopolitics] - Pro-Western |
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@theglobalgambit/videos Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics] (YouTube) - Pyotr Kurzin is a British-Russian expat who lives in Washington DC and graduated from Johns Hopkins Univesity. | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@GeopoliticalFuturesGPF/videos Geopolitical Futures] - George Friedman | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@CaspianReport/videos Caspian Report], Azerbaijan | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@icarusproject/videos Icarus Project] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://mearsheimer.substack.com/ John Mearsheimer's substack] | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Nikola Mikovic - Serbian (Tries to be objective realistic)''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://twitter.com/nikola_mikovic?lang=en Nikola Mikovic - Twitter] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://muckrack.com/nikola-mikovic/articles Nikola Mikovic] - Muckrack | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.diplomaticourier.com/people/nikola-mikovic Nikola Mikovic] - Diplomaticourier.com | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/contributors/articles/nikola-mikovic Nikola Mikovic] - Lowy Institute | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.arabnews.com/authors/nikola-mikovic Nikola Mikovic] - Arab News | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.americanpurpose.com/authors/nikola-mikovic/ Nikola Mikovic], American Purpose | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Pro-Western YouTube channels:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@foreignaffairs/videos Foreign Affairs] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@TheEconomist/videos The Economist] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics/videos Peter Zeihan] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@Network2020/videos Network 20/20] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@RANENetwork/videos RANE] (Related to Stratfor) | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://worldview.stratfor.com/ Stratfor website] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@StratNewsGlobal/videos StratNewsGlobal] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@GeopoliticalFuturesGPF/videos Geopolitical Futures] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@CentreforGeopolitics/videos Centre for Geopolitics] - UK | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@gefirachannel9054/videos Gefira Channel] - Netherlands | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@FPRI/videos Foreign Policy Research Institute] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@GeopoliticsDaily247/videos Geopolitics Daily] - Greece, Very Pro-Western | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@FPA1918/videos Foreign Policy Association] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@Geo-Politico/videos Geopolitico] - Run by Infographics channel guy | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Pro-Western podcasts:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.csis.org/podcasts/truth-matter The Truth of the Matter] - Center for Strategic and International Studies | ||
| + | *[https://www.brookings.edu/podcasts/ Brookings Institution Podcast] (Current affairs, tech news, economic news and Africa) | ||
| + | *[https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/mark-leonards-world-in-30-minutes/id340460705 The World in 30 Minutes] - European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) | ||
| + | *[https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ecfr-on-air/id1200798765 ECFR on Air] | ||
| + | *[https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/economist-podcasts/id151230264 Economist Podcast] | ||
| + | *[https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/first-person/ First Person] - Foreign Policy Podcast] | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''India:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@amitsengupta01/videos Amit Sengupta] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@DEFTALKSbyAadi/videos DEF - TALKS by Aadi] - India focused | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@WorldAffairsUnacademy/videos World Affairs] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@WION/videos WION] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@CRUXnews/videos Crux] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@studyiqofficial/videos Study IQ] | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Pro-Russia, semi anti-Western, anti-Western or pessimistic about the West/USA''' | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/videos The Duran] | *[https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/videos The Duran] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://glenndiesen.substack.com/ Glenn Diesen substack] and [https://www.youtube.com/@GDiesen1/videos Glen Diesen - YouTube] | ||
| + | |||
*[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning | *[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning | ||
| − | |||
| − | + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@AlexMercouris/videos Alexander Mercouris] | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ | + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@AlexChristoforou/videos Alex Christoforou] |
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudies/videos Neutrality Studies] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@TheNewAtlas/videos The New Atlas] | ||
| + | |||
| + | Glen Diesen videos: | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmF9ILWgP9Y The Impending Economic Meltdown: Investor Legend Jim Rogers, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen] | ||
| + | |||
| + | == International relations websites - Pro-Western == | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ Foreign Affairs] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://thediplomat.com/ The Diplomat] - Asia Pacific - Affiliated with the [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Strategic_and_International_Studies Center for Strategic and International Studies] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://foreignpolicy.com/ Foreign Policy] (Founded by [[Samuel Huntington]], but endorsed [[Hillary Clinton]]) | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.fpri.org/ Foreign Policy Research Institute] | ||
== Major powers: Western World, USA, European nations, China and Russia, World events and world history == | == Major powers: Western World, USA, European nations, China and Russia, World events and world history == | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-winter-2018-issue-no-10/great-powers-in-the-twenty-first-century Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century] by [https://rest.gmu.edu/people/mkatz Mark N. Katz], George Mason University, 2018 | ||
=== Burning Archive === | === Burning Archive === | ||
| Line 67: | Line 149: | ||
*[https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-burning-archive/id1562981468 Burning Achive Apple Podcast] - Apple Podcast | *[https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-burning-archive/id1562981468 Burning Achive Apple Podcast] - Apple Podcast | ||
| + | |||
| + | === David Woo Unbound === | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound/videos David Woo Unbound], YouTube | ||
| + | *[https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ David Woo Unbound], Website | ||
| + | |||
| + | === Peter Zeihan === | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics/videos Zeihan on geopolitics] | ||
| + | *[https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihan/posts Peter Zeihan - Patreon] | ||
=== Stephen Kotkin lectures === | === Stephen Kotkin lectures === | ||
| Line 73: | Line 165: | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin Stephen Kotkin] - YouTube search | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin Stephen Kotkin] - YouTube search | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Odt-z_-1cA STEPHEN KOTKIN - THE WORLD IN PIECES], September 2024 | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCusFCg-z_0 Stephen Kotkin: Turning Points: Yesterday’s World, and Tomorrow’s] | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCusFCg-z_0 Stephen Kotkin: Turning Points: Yesterday’s World, and Tomorrow’s] | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLbjmSS6LZDGp-B8j17UbbY8Z2HznqcV3y Steve Kotkin - Sphere of influence lectures - 3 part series] | *[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLbjmSS6LZDGp-B8j17UbbY8Z2HznqcV3y Steve Kotkin - Sphere of influence lectures - 3 part series] | ||
| + | |||
| + | === The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) === | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.osw.waw.pl/en The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)] - website (Based in Warsaw) | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@centreforeasternstudies/videos Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) - YouTube], YouTube (Based in Warsaw) | ||
| + | |||
| + | === Search Party === | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@Search-Party/videos Search Party] - More documentary/entertainment | ||
=== World Politics Review === | === World Politics Review === | ||
| Line 84: | Line 187: | ||
*[https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/ World Politics Review], website | *[https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/ World Politics Review], website | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/@worldpoliticsreview/videos World Politics Review], YouTube | *[https://www.youtube.com/@worldpoliticsreview/videos World Politics Review], YouTube | ||
| + | |||
| + | === Adam Tooze === | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=adam+tooze&sca_esv=69fb379725caa853&sca_upv=1&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ADLYWIIk__vEwANKtkUohmfcTVZ6KEeOBQ:1726576008480&ei=iHXpZuSGHYKf0PEPjr3gkAc&start=0&sa=N&ved=2ahUKEwjk6qbt_MmIAxWCDzQIHY4eGHI4ChDy0wN6BAgDEAQ&biw=1920&bih=925&dpr=1 Adam Tooze - Google News] | ||
| + | *[https://adamtooze.substack.com/ Adam Tooze - Substack] | ||
| + | *[https://www.amazon.com/Books-Adam-Tooze/s?rh=n%3A283155%2Cp_27%3AAdam+Tooze Adam Tooze - Amazon] | ||
=== Emmanuel Todd === | === Emmanuel Todd === | ||
| Line 153: | Line 262: | ||
=== USA === | === USA === | ||
| + | [[File:Bigger, better, stronger.jpg|thumbnail|right|500px|“Sadly the American dream is dead, but if I get elected president I will bring it back. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAxQVx9X-DE&list=PL65HKFevUNqLs-0AXYmDHdyg9-QtnfnhC&index=1 Bigger, better and stronger] than ever before.” - [[Donald Trump]] | ||
| + | <br /> | ||
| + | <br /> | ||
| + | See: [[Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future|The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future]] ]] | ||
| + | [[File:Trump dancing.png|right|500px|thumb|"Surrounded by serious and talented people like J.D. Vance, his running mate, RFK Jr., who abandoned his own campaign to support Trump, former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, Vivek Ramaswamy, Elon Musk and other business leaders, Donald Trump’s campaign will be like Patton’s Third Army racing across France in 1944." - Roger Kimball, [https://thespectator.com/politics/kamala-harris-will-lose-2024-prediction/ ''Why Kamala Harris will lose'''], ''The Spectator'', October 21, 2024 ]] | ||
Economy: | Economy: | ||
| Line 174: | Line 288: | ||
*[https://www.google.com/search?q=us+long+term++economic+outlook&sca_esv=619c697d276fe56b&biw=1920&bih=927&sxsrf=ACQVn0-hC0DrbvZ6HYGcwYV0qbKdSFGz2A%3A1713995628190&ei=bH8pZsCXC9arptQPwaOoqAc&ved=0ahUKEwjA_cGk69uFAxXWlYkEHcERCnUQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=us+long+term++economic+outlook&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiHnVzIGxvbmcgdGVybSAgZWNvbm9taWMgb3V0bG9vazIFEAAYgAQyBhAAGBYYHjILEAAYgAQYhgMYigUyCxAAGIAEGIYDGIoFMgsQABiABBiGAxiKBTIIEAAYgAQYogRIgz5QnwxY-StwAXgBkAEAmAGkAaABrQWqAQMwLjW4AQPIAQD4AQH4AQKYAgagAu0FwgIKEAAYsAMY1gQYR8ICBhAAGAcYHsICCBAAGAcYCBgewgIIEAAYBRgHGB7CAgYQABgIGB7CAgcQABiABBgNmAMAiAYBkAYIkgcDMS41oAfeHg&sclient=gws-wiz-serp US long term economic outlook - Google Search] | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=us+long+term++economic+outlook&sca_esv=619c697d276fe56b&biw=1920&bih=927&sxsrf=ACQVn0-hC0DrbvZ6HYGcwYV0qbKdSFGz2A%3A1713995628190&ei=bH8pZsCXC9arptQPwaOoqAc&ved=0ahUKEwjA_cGk69uFAxXWlYkEHcERCnUQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=us+long+term++economic+outlook&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiHnVzIGxvbmcgdGVybSAgZWNvbm9taWMgb3V0bG9vazIFEAAYgAQyBhAAGBYYHjILEAAYgAQYhgMYigUyCxAAGIAEGIYDGIoFMgsQABiABBiGAxiKBTIIEAAYgAQYogRIgz5QnwxY-StwAXgBkAEAmAGkAaABrQWqAQMwLjW4AQPIAQD4AQH4AQKYAgagAu0FwgIKEAAYsAMY1gQYR8ICBhAAGAcYHsICCBAAGAcYCBgewgIIEAAYBRgHGB7CAgYQABgIGB7CAgcQABiABBgNmAMAiAYBkAYIkgcDMS41oAfeHg&sclient=gws-wiz-serp US long term economic outlook - Google Search] | ||
| − | USA 2030s economic depression: | + | USA oil production: |
| + | |||
| + | "The US is the largest oil-producing country in the world, with output of 21.91 million barrels per day in 2023, taking the spot for the sixth year in a row."[https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/energy-investing/oil-and-gas-investing/top-oil-producing-countries/] | ||
| + | |||
| + | USA 2030s economic depression forecast: | ||
*[https://itreconomics.com/2030s-great-depression/ 2030s Great Depression] (If the USA sees a [[Great Depression]] in the 2030s, it will likely affect the whole world. USA 26% of the global economy in 2023 in nominal terms, and about 15.5% in PPP terms.[https://www.statista.com/statistics/270267/united-states-share-of-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/#:~:text=United%20States%20share%20of%20global%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP)%202028&text=In%202022%2C%20the%20United%20States,seventh%20of%20the%20global%20total.]) | *[https://itreconomics.com/2030s-great-depression/ 2030s Great Depression] (If the USA sees a [[Great Depression]] in the 2030s, it will likely affect the whole world. USA 26% of the global economy in 2023 in nominal terms, and about 15.5% in PPP terms.[https://www.statista.com/statistics/270267/united-states-share-of-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/#:~:text=United%20States%20share%20of%20global%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP)%202028&text=In%202022%2C%20the%20United%20States,seventh%20of%20the%20global%20total.]) | ||
| Line 181: | Line 299: | ||
*[http://time.com/3899972/us-superpower-status-military/ These Are the 5 Reasons Why the U.S. Remains the World’s Only Superpower] | *[http://time.com/3899972/us-superpower-status-military/ These Are the 5 Reasons Why the U.S. Remains the World’s Only Superpower] | ||
| − | *[https://www. | + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiFYfDzdGaI The United States Transforms into a Global Superpower], 2024 |
| − | + | ||
*[[Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future|The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future]] | *[[Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future|The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future]] | ||
| + | |||
| + | USA's power relative to other nations and the aging populations in the major powers: | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/files/is3201_pp112-147.pdf A Geriatric Peace? The Future of U.S. Power in a World of Aging Populations], 2007, [https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article-abstract/32/1/112/11893/A-Geriatric-Peace-The-Future-of-U-S-Power-in-a?redirectedFrom=fulltext Abstract] | ||
| + | |||
| + | USA and late Soviet Union comparison flawed: | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/gfile/no-we-are-not-living-in-late-soviet-america/ No, We Are Not Living in ‘Late Soviet America’], The Dispatch, 2024 | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.aei.org/multimedia/we-arent-all-soviets-now-or-are-we-jonah-goldberg-vs-niall-ferguson/ We Aren’t All Soviets Now … Or Are We? | Jonah Goldberg vs. Niall Ferguson] - Jonah Goldberg, American Enterprise Institute, 2024 | ||
| + | |||
| + | US challenges: | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://sites.google.com/view/usa-challenges/home USA - Pessimistic view of the future] | ||
| + | |||
| + | === US/China power competition === | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://sites.google.com/view/usachinapowercompetition/home US/China power competition] | ||
| + | |||
| + | === USA and international relations === | ||
| + | |||
| + | Stephen Kotkin, historian (Moderate/liberal view): | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/trump-and-future-american-power-stephen-kotkin Trump and the Future of American Power. A Conversation With Stephen Kotkin], 2024 (Acknowledges Trump is very American and very unpredictable) | ||
=== Canada === | === Canada === | ||
| Line 236: | Line 377: | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3bxgkJNv40 Europe Is Losing Its Factories] | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3bxgkJNv40 Europe Is Losing Its Factories] | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== France ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en Institute Montaigne] | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== Germany ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.ifw-kiel.de/ Kiel Institute] | ||
=== India === | === India === | ||
| Line 260: | Line 409: | ||
=== China === | === China === | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://sites.google.com/view/decline-of-china/home Decline of China] | ||
Economics: | Economics: | ||
| Line 266: | Line 417: | ||
*[https://www.google.com/search?q=china+economy&oq=china+economy&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyDggAEEUYJxg5GIAEGIoFMgwIARAjGCcYgAQYigUyEAgCEAAYkQIYsQMYgAQYigUyDQgDEAAYkQIYgAQYigUyDQgEEAAYkQIYgAQYigUyBggFEEUYPDIGCAYQRRg8MgYIBxAuGEDSAQg3MzUxajBqM6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 China economy] - Google search | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=china+economy&oq=china+economy&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyDggAEEUYJxg5GIAEGIoFMgwIARAjGCcYgAQYigUyEAgCEAAYkQIYsQMYgAQYigUyDQgDEAAYkQIYgAQYigUyDQgEEAAYkQIYgAQYigUyBggFEEUYPDIGCAYQRRg8MgYIBxAuGEDSAQg3MzUxajBqM6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 China economy] - Google search | ||
*[https://www.google.com/search?q=china%27s+debt&oq=china%27s+debt&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyCQgAEEUYORiABDIHCAEQABiABDIHCAIQABiABDIHCAMQABiABDIHCAQQABiABDIHCAUQABiABDIHCAYQABiABDIHCAcQABiABDIHCAgQABiABDIGCAkQLhhA0gEINTY3MWowajSoAgCwAgE&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 China's debt] | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=china%27s+debt&oq=china%27s+debt&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyCQgAEEUYORiABDIHCAEQABiABDIHCAIQABiABDIHCAMQABiABDIHCAQQABiABDIHCAUQABiABDIHCAYQABiABDIHCAcQABiABDIHCAgQABiABDIGCAkQLhhA0gEINTY3MWowajSoAgCwAgE&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 China's debt] | ||
| + | |||
| + | Chinese politics and economics: | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.csis.org/podcasts/pekingology Pekingology] | ||
| + | |||
| + | China and financial websites: | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.visualcapitalist.com/?s=china Visual Capitalist - China] | ||
| + | *[https://www.forbes.com/search/?q=China Forbes - China] | ||
| + | *[https://www.wsj.com/world/china Wall Street Journal - China] | ||
| + | *[https://fortune.com/advanced-search/?query=China Fortune - China] | ||
YouTube channels: | YouTube channels: | ||
| Line 300: | Line 462: | ||
*[https://archive.ph/Sv2MA#selection-1651.7-1659.100 The Chinese Communist Party is on the verge of turning today's China into yesterday's Soviet Union] | *[https://archive.ph/Sv2MA#selection-1651.7-1659.100 The Chinese Communist Party is on the verge of turning today's China into yesterday's Soviet Union] | ||
*[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-05/chinas-communist-party-is-at-a-fatal-age-for-one-party-regimes/11807138 China's Communist Party is at a fatal age for one-party regimes. How much longer can it survive?] | *[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-05/chinas-communist-party-is-at-a-fatal-age-for-one-party-regimes/11807138 China's Communist Party is at a fatal age for one-party regimes. How much longer can it survive?] | ||
| + | |||
| + | China's property crisis: | ||
| + | |||
| + | Chinese economy: "Growth is slowing at an alarming pace. The most recent figures, for the three months to the end of June, were the worst in five quarters while consumer prices again threaten to tip into negative territory. More alarmingly, the three-year meltdown in its property market continues unabated. What once was chipping away at personal wealth is now running a wrecking ball through the economy, hitting terminally weak household consumption." [https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-23/china-approaching-economic-oblivion-property-market-trade-trap/104128504] | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== Decline of China ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://sites.google.com/view/decline-of-china/home Decline of China] | ||
==== US-China relations ==== | ==== US-China relations ==== | ||
| Line 321: | Line 491: | ||
==== Chinese export strategy will not work this time ==== | ==== Chinese export strategy will not work this time ==== | ||
[[File:House-of-cards.jpg|thumbnail|right|300px|In the coming years and decades, the slowing Chinese economy will show that it is a fragile house of cards. ]] | [[File:House-of-cards.jpg|thumbnail|right|300px|In the coming years and decades, the slowing Chinese economy will show that it is a fragile house of cards. ]] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.newsweek.com/china-tariffs-us-deals-trade-blow-worlds-no-2-economy-1959792 China Tariffs: US Deals Trade Blow to World's No. 2 Economy], September 2024. | ||
| + | |||
| + | "The U.S.'s steep tariff hikes on Chinese goods took effect on Friday after Beijing criticized the move as mutually destructive protectionism. The Biden administration announced in May that it was upholding tariffs on $300 billion worth of Trump administration tariffs after a four-year review. | ||
Due to China having a significantly higher percentage of world exports than it did 25 years ago, China cannot export its way out of its economic problems because the world is not as able to absorb China's exports (See: [https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/04/15/chinas-export-game-wont-work-this-time/?sh=2953510c68b9 China’s Export Game Won’t Work This Time], ''Forbes'', April 15, 2024). | Due to China having a significantly higher percentage of world exports than it did 25 years ago, China cannot export its way out of its economic problems because the world is not as able to absorb China's exports (See: [https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/04/15/chinas-export-game-wont-work-this-time/?sh=2953510c68b9 China’s Export Game Won’t Work This Time], ''Forbes'', April 15, 2024). | ||
| Line 333: | Line 507: | ||
====== Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60% ====== | ====== Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60% ====== | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.reuters.com/world/china/why-chinas-economy-is-more-vulnerable-trump-tariffs-this-time-2024-11-06/ Why Trump tariffs pose a bigger threat to China’s economy this time], Reuters, November 2024 | ||
*[https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-suggests-tariffs-against-nations-including-china-over-illegal-immigration-2024-06-06/ Trump suggests tariffs against nations including China over illegal immigration], 2024 | *[https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-suggests-tariffs-against-nations-including-china-over-illegal-immigration-2024-06-06/ Trump suggests tariffs against nations including China over illegal immigration], 2024 | ||
| Line 417: | Line 593: | ||
=== Russia === | === Russia === | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | ==== Russia News ==== | ||
| + | [[Image:A Solzhenitsyn.jpg|thumbnail|500px|right|"Since then I have spent well nigh 50 years working on the history of our revolution, but if I were asked today to formulate as concisely as possible the main cause of the ruinous revolution that swallowed up some 60 million of our people, I could not put it more accurately than to repeat, men have forgotten God. That's why all this has happened." - [[Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn]] | ||
| + | <br /> | ||
| + | <br /> | ||
| + | Church attendance rates in Russia are low, and the level of religiosity in the country has been declining in recent years.[https://re-russia.net/en/review/278/] ]] | ||
| + | *[https://russiapost.info/ Russia Post] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@csis/videos Center for Strategic & International Studies] | ||
| + | *[https://www.themoscowtimes.com/ Moscow Times] (con) and [https://www.youtube.com/@moscowtimes/videos Moscow Times - YouTube] | ||
| + | *[https://theins.ru/en/ The Insider] | ||
| + | *[https://en.thebell.io/ The Bell] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@INSIDERUSSIA/videos Inside Russia] (Con) | ||
| + | *[https://ridl.io/blog/ Riddle] (Con) | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@VladVexler/videos Vlad Vexler] (YouTube) - My mission is to guide you through the political challenges we all face in the 21st century. I’m a philosopher. My academic life focuses on the concept of freedom and I'm writing a book about Isaiah Berlin. I'm a British citizen living in London. I was born in Soviet Russia - I left before the collapse of the USSR. I continue to closely analyse Russian politics. | ||
| + | *[https://www.kyivpost.com/ Kyiv Post] and [https://www.youtube.com/@kyiv_post/videos Kyiv Post - YouTube] | ||
| + | *[https://kyivindependent.com/ Kyiv Independent] and [https://www.youtube.com/@kyivindependent/videos Kyiv Independent - YouTube] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@AnnafromUkraine/videos Anna from Ukraine] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin+Putin&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Stephen Kotin - Putin] (Con) | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@theglobalgambit/videos Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics] (YouTube) - Pyotr Kurzin is a British-Russian expat who lives in Washington DC and graduated from Johns Hopkins Univesity. | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@SiliconCurtain/videos Silicon Curtain] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@icarusproject/videos Icarus Project] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics/search?query=russia Peter Zeihan - Russia] (Con) | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@JoeBlogs/search?query=russia Joe Blogs - Russia] (Con) | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin+russia&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Stephen Kotkin - Russia] (Con) - [https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/stephen-kotkin-ukraine-russia-china-and-world Stephen Kotkin on Ukraine, Russia, China and the World] | ||
| + | |||
| + | <br /> | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=mearsheimer&sp=EgIIBA%253D%253D John Mearsheimer] - Middle of the road, but leans Russia | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@DrSteveTurleyTV/search?query=Russia Steve Turley] - Middle of the road, but leans Russia | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aq1VBFyhIuI Dmitry Orlov - YouTube] - [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Orlov_(writer) Dmitry Orlov] is reasonable person overall in some ways and intelligent, leans Russia (American engineer and writer raised in Russia until the age of 12. Witnesswed Collapse of Soviet Union) | ||
| + | <br /> | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/videos The Duran] (Pro) | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@lenapetrova/videos Lena Petrova] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning | ||
| + | *[https://www.rt.com/ Russia Today] (Pro) | ||
| + | *[https://sputnikglobe.com/ Sputnik International] (pro) | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning | ||
| + | <br /> | ||
| + | <br /> | ||
| + | Blogs: | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.russiamatters.org/blog Russia Matters] - Harvard's Kennedy Center for Science and International Affairs | ||
| + | *[https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blogs/russia-file The Russia File] - Mixed bag | ||
| + | *[https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/ In Moscow's Shadows] | ||
| + | |||
| + | === General info on Russia === | ||
| + | |||
| + | [[File:Butter.jpg|thumbnail|right|400px|I used to be more interested in Russia, but the [https://www.newsweek.com/russians-resort-stealing-butter-amid-shortages-1976575 ButterGate] scandal put a damper on that. | ||
| + | <br /> | ||
| + | <br /> | ||
| + | Russian President Vladimir Putin says that Russia's war economy is well balanced to supply both guns and butter, but the price of butter itself is now soaring as surging inflation distorts parts of the economy. The price of a block of butter has risen by 25.7 per cent since December, according to the state statistics service. | ||
| + | <br /> | ||
| + | <br /> | ||
| + | 'The Armageddon with butter is escalating,' Russian economists claim on Telegram. | ||
| + | <br /> | ||
| + | <br /> | ||
| + | See: [https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-wartime-economy-butter-price-inflation-1.7371742 Butter prices soar in Russia amid surging inflation in war economy], CBC News, November 2, 2024 and [https://www.newsweek.com/russians-resort-stealing-butter-amid-shortages-1976575 Russians Resort to Stealing Butter Amid Shortages], ''Newsweek'', October 29, 2024 ]] | ||
*[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-russian-economy/home Russia and Russian economy] (Putin's trilemna, Check Russia's economy on 4-19-2027, Put in my electronic calendar). If war in Ukraine ends sooner, then recalibrate when I check on Russia's economy next. | *[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-russian-economy/home Russia and Russian economy] (Putin's trilemna, Check Russia's economy on 4-19-2027, Put in my electronic calendar). If war in Ukraine ends sooner, then recalibrate when I check on Russia's economy next. | ||
| Line 426: | Line 659: | ||
*[https://www.google.com/search?q=urals+oil+price&sca_esv=587351034&sxsrf=AM9HkKlSMypsScyN1A1QvRxVh7sfYPGTkw%3A1701556583927&ei=Z7FrZd-VOM_H0PEPxdy62AI&ved=0ahUKEwif5f-d6PGCAxXPIzQIHUWuDisQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=urals+oil+price&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiD3VyYWxzIG9pbCBwcmljZTIKEAAYgAQYigUYQzIKEAAYgAQYigUYQzIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyChAAGIAEGIoFGEMyBRAAGIAEMgsQABiABBiKBRiGAzILEAAYgAQYigUYhgNIziJQlAZYjSBwBXgBkAEAmAGtAaABqgqqAQQwLjEwuAEDyAEA-AEBwgIKEAAYRxjWBBiwA8ICDRAAGIAEGIoFGEMYsAPCAgsQABgWGB4Y8QQYCsICBRAhGKABwgIHEAAYgAQYDcICBhAAGB4YDcICBhAAGBYYHuIDBBgAIEGIBgGQBgo&sclient=gws-wiz-serp Urals oil price] | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=urals+oil+price&sca_esv=587351034&sxsrf=AM9HkKlSMypsScyN1A1QvRxVh7sfYPGTkw%3A1701556583927&ei=Z7FrZd-VOM_H0PEPxdy62AI&ved=0ahUKEwif5f-d6PGCAxXPIzQIHUWuDisQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=urals+oil+price&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiD3VyYWxzIG9pbCBwcmljZTIKEAAYgAQYigUYQzIKEAAYgAQYigUYQzIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyChAAGIAEGIoFGEMyBRAAGIAEMgsQABiABBiKBRiGAzILEAAYgAQYigUYhgNIziJQlAZYjSBwBXgBkAEAmAGtAaABqgqqAQQwLjEwuAEDyAEA-AEBwgIKEAAYRxjWBBiwA8ICDRAAGIAEGIoFGEMYsAPCAgsQABgWGB4Y8QQYCsICBRAhGKABwgIHEAAYgAQYDcICBhAAGB4YDcICBhAAGBYYHuIDBBgAIEGIBgGQBgo&sclient=gws-wiz-serp Urals oil price] | ||
| − | '''Russia | + | '''Russia's roads:''' |
| − | + | "2024: According to most global rankings, Russian roads are considered to be of poor quality, placing them very low in the world ranking, often falling within the bottom half of countries when considering road infrastructure and quality; with reports frequently placing Russia around the 120th position globally." - [https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/2024/11/russia-land-of-potholes-and-bad-roads.html Russia: A land of potholes and bad roads!] | |
| − | + | ==== Leading/insightful historians on Russia ==== | |
| − | ''' | + | '''[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Radchenko Sergey Radchenko]:''' (He leans Western): |
| − | + | [https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=14cfa2bca5bf3d22&sxsrf=ADLYWIJnxz0hu51Od9L03AYu9QP1J-b32g:1733207521432&q=Sergey+Radchenko&tbm=nws&source=lnms&fbs=AEQNm0Aa4sjWe7Rqy32pFwRj0UkWtG_mNb-HwafvV8cKK_h1a0WYAF4mXQP8CuyQXqW6TNxu33IfIxH7NwnQR9rk5Rof0T7YPvS2QT9inz3OPGD-zkbPc_otHmADkabzRR-hh08FIDXRPgnmgqr9Sz_bDbvNbNKsTZ-mj8rD8AHbJ8UJGMv3rN4XWF78mW396acjeXCwLsCy0yyLXxHp3Dqmq9cSwOMxcA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjN84uV_YqKAxVUElkFHRZFBNUQ0pQJegQIGxAB&biw=1920&bih=917&dpr=1 Sergey Radchenko]- Google News | |
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Sergey+Radchenko+ Sergey Radchenko] | ||
| − | "Guriev | + | Articles: |
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-should-putin-negotiate/ Why should Putin negotiate?] by the historian Sergey Radchenko, October 2024. He might be wrong due to financial pressure on Russia, but this is an unknown. Sergey S. Radchenko is a Soviet-born British-Russian historian. He tries to put himself in Putin's mindset as far as what Putin wants to accomplish, but he is not an economist so that is a shortcoming. Ultimately, authoritarian regimes are opaque as far as decision making and so "mind reading" is of limited value. | ||
| + | *[https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/vladimir-putin-does-not-want-a-peace-deal-he-wants-to-destroy-ukraine/ Vladimir Putin does not want a peace deal. He wants to destroy Ukraine.], Atlantic Council, December 2024 (Argues Putin does not want a peace deal and that the Istanbul 2022 peace terms of Russia were unreasonable) - Tough to do mind reading of autocratic regimes like Putin. Maybe financial pressures will cause Putin to agree to a peace deal or maybe Trump's more openness to a deal than Biden will cause Putin to be more willing to negotiate. | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Stephen Kotkin''' (He leans Western): | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin Stephen Kotkin - YouTube search] | ||
| + | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=stephen+kotkin&sca_esv=14cfa2bca5bf3d22&biw=1920&bih=917&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ADLYWIJ3dFDRN2XGfDAQLyWOmxUY5mcOPA%3A1733207831039&ei=F6dOZ7_8Aa-h5NoP7YG7iQI&ved=0ahUKEwj_49yo_oqKAxWvEFkFHe3ALiEQ4dUDCA0&uact=5&oq=stephen+kotkin&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LW5ld3MiDnN0ZXBoZW4ga290a2luMg4QABiABBiRAhixAxiKBTIFEAAYgAQyCxAAGIAEGJECGIoFMgsQABiABBiRAhiKBTIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABEj3K1AAWOMmcAF4AJABAJgBfaABqQyqAQQwLjE0uAEDyAEA-AEBmAIOoALODKgCAMICChAAGIAEGEMYigXCAgsQABiABBixAxiDAcICDhAAGIAEGLEDGIMBGIoFwgIIEAAYgAQYsQPCAg0QABiABBixAxhDGIoFwgIKEAAYgAQYsQMYCsICBxAAGIAEGAqYAwGSBwQwLjE0oAe2TA&sclient=gws-wiz-news Stephen Kotkin - Google News] | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Richard Sakwa:''' (He leans pro-Russia) | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Sakwa Richard Sakwa] - Wikipedia | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=Richard+Sakwa&sca_esv=14cfa2bca5bf3d22&biw=1920&bih=917&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ADLYWII2BISFOmUdLKnIXVLLg6X3lvT-6A%3A1733207532813&ei=7KVOZ8-jMY-Hw8cPoKL_yAM&ved=0ahUKEwjPycKa_YqKAxWPw_ACHSDRHzkQ4dUDCA0&uact=5&oq=Richard+Sakwa&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LW5ld3MiDVJpY2hhcmQgU2Frd2EyCxAAGIAEGJECGIoFMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIGEAAYFhgeMgYQABgWGB5I8TFQ9QlY-iVwAXgAkAEDmAGCAaABrQ-qAQQwLjE3uAEDyAEA-AEB-AECmAIDoAL0AqgCAMICChAAGIAEGEMYigWYAwKIBgGSBwMwLjOgB_5e&sclient=gws-wiz-news Richard Sakwa - Google news] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Richard+Sakwa Richard Sakwa - YouTube search] | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== Various Scenarios for Russia's future ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://archive.ph/taIRm The Five Futures of Russia] by historian Stephen Kotkin, May/June 2024 | ||
| + | *[https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/five-scenarios-for-russias-future/ Russia Tomorrow: Five scenarios for Russia’s future], February 2024 | ||
| + | *[https://archive.ph/SJz3Y#selection-1225.0-1229.72 Russia Is Burning Up Its Future], How Putin’s Pursuit of Power Has Hollowed Out the Country and Its People, 2024 | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lgf0Yp9PfQ&list=PLshhjXvNVYNP1gSQXsVzzK0air6RNBpAK&index=7 Welcome & Keynote, "Past, Present and Future of Putin's Russia (and What Comes Next)"], 2023, Russian Sergei Guriev (Economist) | ||
| + | *[https://willrussiapayukrainereparations.blogspot.com/2024/08/will-russia-eventually-pay-ukraine.html Will Russia eventually pay Ukraine reparations?], Deteriorating economic conditions post war in Ukraine causes Russia to wish reapproachment with the West and agree to paying Ukraine reparations | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrpzRGWahSk Putin's offensive capability will be gone 'within a decade' | Peter Zeihan] | ||
| + | *[https://istories.media/en/opinions/2024/11/13/mad-russia-is-a-long-time-coming/ Mad Russia is a Long Time Coming] | ||
| + | ===== Russia becoming a failed state. Decline of Russia ===== | ||
| + | [[File:Massive sewage geyser.png|thumbnail|right|400px|Skyscraper-high sewage plume of feces erupts in Moscow.[https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/2024/11/russias-sewage-system-crisis.html] ]] | ||
| + | *[https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/05/russia-ukraine-empire-imperialism-war/ The Inevitable Fall of Putin’s New Russian Empire], Foreign Policy, 2023 (Re-imperialization requirements: Strong economy, strong military and effective government. Russia lacks all three.). | ||
| + | *[https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/2024/11/will-russia-become-failed-state-is.html Will Russia become a failed state within 10 years? Is Russia currently a failed state? Will Russia eventually become a failed state?] | ||
| + | *[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-failing/home Russia becoming a failed state] - Google site | ||
| + | *[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-is-in-decline/home Decline of Russia] - Google site | ||
| + | *[https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/ Decline of Russia], Blog | ||
| + | *[https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/2024/12/russias-overseas-troubles-so-many-all.html Russia's overseas troubles - so many all at once! Putin's jenga tower is unstable!], December 4, 2024 | ||
| + | *[https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/russia-disintegrate/ Could Russia disintegrate?], GIS reports, 2023 (Argues for slow decay) | ||
| + | *[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/22/putin-regime-will-collapse-without-warning-says-freed-gulag-dissident Putin regime will collapse without warning, says freed gulag dissident], Guardian, 2024 (failed war, economic, etc.) | ||
| + | *[https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/after-fall-must-we-prepare-breakup-russia After the Fall. Must We Prepare for the Breakup of Russia?], Institute Montaigne, 2023 | ||
| + | *[https://www.newsweek.com/decline-putins-russia-its-way-global-irrelevance-65847 In Decline, Putin's Russia Is On Its Way to Global Irrelevance], Historian Niall Ferguson on Russia, 2011 (updated 2017) | ||
| + | |||
| + | Quote: "What good is Russia as a partner if it cannot save its oldest client in the Middle East from a ragtag band of militias? Besides the operational setback, it is also a diplomatic and reputational blow.” - Eugene Rumer, director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, [https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/08/world/europe/russia-syria-assad-putin.html Bogged Down in Ukraine, Russia Pays a Price in Syria], NYT, December 8, 2024 | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== Russia's entering stormy, uncharted, economic waters ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | "According to the Russian Central Bank, over $253 billion in private capital has left the country, and estimates suggest that up to one million highly skilled workers have emigrated, constituting about 10% of Russia's technology workforce and a third of its millionaires, according to the Financial Times." - [https://www.newsweek.com/russian-economy-stormy-uncharted-waters-putins-banking-chief-says-1932691 Russian Economy in 'Stormy Uncharted Waters,' Putin's Banking Chief Says], 2024 | ||
| + | *[https://warontherocks.com/2024/09/russia-is-on-a-slow-path-to-bankruptcy-but-how-slow/#:~:text=On%20the%20revenue%20side%2C%20things,25%20percent%20over%20one%20year. Russia Is on a Slow Path to Bankruptcy, But How Slow?], 2024 | ||
| + | |||
| + | ===== Potential stagflation or deep recession for Russia in 2025 ===== | ||
| + | |||
| + | "The Bank of Russia’s statements indicate the central bank sees the economy on the cusp of stagflation. Despite sanctions and labor shortages binding output growth, corporations and consumers don’t expect price increases to slow. They also don’t perceive double digit borrowing rates as particularly restrictive. The central bank is right to be worried — we expect inflation to continue running above policymakers’ 4% target, while GDP growth is likely to slow to 1%-1.5% in 2025." — Alex Isakov, Russia economist[https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/russia-flags-slowing-economic-demand-as-price-pressures-persist] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/russia-faces-stagflation-prospect-amid-dogged-inflation-lower-growth Russia faces stagflation prospect amid dogged inflation, lower growth], 2024 | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://archive.ph/JJnkl#selection-1429.0-1429.124 Russia's 'overheating' economy will face a sharp slowdown in 2025 as inflation, labor shortages and sanctions crush momentum, Russia central bank says], 2025. "GDP could fall from as much as 4% to as low as 0.5% in 2025, the report said." | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://archive.ph/79opP#selection-1691.0-1691.215 Russia Flags Slowing Economic Demand as Price Pressures Persist], Bloomberg September 2024. "The Bank of Russia sees early indications that policymakers’ nightmare scenario of high prices coupled with slow economic growth — elements of what is known as stagflation — risks becoming a reality for the country." | ||
| + | *[https://archive.ph/ifMjH#selection-1479.0-1479.57 Russia's economy is signaling a fate worse than recession], September, 2024 | ||
| + | *[https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2024/07/russia-expected-to-see-severe-recession-within-a-year/ Russia expected to see ‘severe recession’ within a year] | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Russia and sales of natural gas:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/06/russia-economy-ukraine-war-gazprom-putin/ The war in Ukraine has turned Russia’s biggest company, Gazprom (a Russian state-controlled energy firm) into a massive money loser], 2024. If Trump is elected, he will likely end Biden's idiotic regulatory “pause” on development of facilities for exporting liquid natural gas (LNG). | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Fertility rate and demographic crisis relative to Russia:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5n9HXNmTro The Hidden Crisis Destroying Russia From the Inside], video | ||
| + | *[https://archive.ph/HL7Wu Putin’s Existential Problem: Not Enough Russians], WSJ, 2024 (Russia’s population has been in decline for years, and the war in Ukraine has made matters worse) | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | '''Alcoholism rising in Russia due to psychological tension related to the war in Ukraine - alcohol consumption is at a 9 year high:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2024/07/psychological-tension-driving-alcoholic-drink-demand-in-russia/ ‘Psychological tension’ driving alcoholic drink demand in Russia], The Drinks Business, July 2024 | ||
| − | + | *But as supply in Russia has dwindled, demand has shot up. As db reported, the increased demand for alcoholic drinks is partly due to “psychological tension” caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. In 2023, the number of litres of alcohol consumed per person per year in Russia reached a nine-year high to eight litres, and may even be higher than that volume. Currently the per capita sales of absolute alcohol are growing in Russia. This clearly indicates an increase in consumption. This is how the population responds to difficulties,” said Evgeny Andreev, a leading researcher at the Centre for Demographic Research of the Russian Economic School (NES).[https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2024/07/russia-expected-to-see-severe-recession-within-a-year/]. | |
| − | + | Tremendous cost of wounded and PTSD/alcoholic veterans post war in Ukraine: [https://warontherocks.com/2024/07/wounded-veterans-wounded-economy-the-personnel-costs-of-russias-war/ Wounded Veterans, Wounded Economy: The Personnel Costs of Russia’s War] | |
| − | + | ||
| − | |||
'''Will Russian assets be seized?''' | '''Will Russian assets be seized?''' | ||
| Line 456: | Line 758: | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9Vtck34kRs The Limits of Russia's War Machine], Peter Zeihan, 2024 | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9Vtck34kRs The Limits of Russia's War Machine], Peter Zeihan, 2024 | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | [[File:512px-Changing the guards kremlin.jpeg|thumbnail|right|400px|thumbnail|[[Goose step]]ping changing of the guards in Russia at the Kremlin in 2006.<ref>[https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Changing_the_guards_kremlin.JPG Changing of the guards in Russia at the Kremlin, 2006]</ref>]] | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== Russia economy and commentary by economists and financial people ==== | ||
'''Sergei Guriev (Economist):''' | '''Sergei Guriev (Economist):''' | ||
| Line 462: | Line 769: | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=sergei+Guriev+russia Sergei Guriev Russia] - YouTube | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=sergei+Guriev+russia Sergei Guriev Russia] - YouTube | ||
| + | |||
| + | Articles by Sergei Guriev: | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://theconversation.com/qanda-with-sergei-guriev-the-optimistic-scenario-is-the-departure-of-vladimir-putin-in-whatever-way-222950 Q&A with Sergei Guriev: ‘The optimistic scenario is the departure of Vladimir Putin in whatever way’], 2024 | ||
| + | |||
| + | Videos by Sergei Guriev: | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7Ur8D7LR7o Sergei Guriev & Oleg Itskhoki: Russian Economy 2 1/2 Years Into the War Against Ukraine] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lgf0Yp9PfQ&t=660s Welcome & Keynote, "Past, Present and Future of Putin's Russia (and What Comes Next)"] | ||
| + | |||
| + | Books by Sergei Guriev: | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.amazon.com/stores/Sergei-Guriev/author/B09NZC2B91?ref=ap_rdr&isDramIntegrated=true&shoppingPortalEnabled=true Books by Sergei Guriev] | ||
| + | |||
| + | Sergey Aleksashenko: | ||
| + | |||
| + | Sergey Aleksashenko is a Russian economist and former government official. He was the deputy finance minister and first deputy chairman of the board of the Central Bank of Russia from 1995 to 1998.[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Aleksashenko] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=884896eda14e76c3&sxsrf=ADLYWIJ2IQgf_F59q8mpdt8UF_2u-h4P0Q:1731682026238&q=Sergey+Aleksashenko&tbm=nws&source=lnms&fbs=AEQNm0Aa4sjWe7Rqy32pFwRj0UkWtG_mNb-HwafvV8cKK_h1a5eSkyfXNgRC6a9SKsMT7FKel2oEVH7CAeL9GJLZ9zSE1b0VTwOacLkI4XgtHWeWNmKPMmJVT-fsL2j8HgVBOedFE0rcv3l9ce7iX7VQHiBT41qOitP2uFNPJwqo3Nj1J21-Gh5tg3bNyqf1kLEJ7mR0Orp4LTigYJIGRfW985SFZs7PWg&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjPrKagyt6JAxXBmokEHbE_M70Q0pQJegQIERAB&biw=1920&bih=917&dpr=1 Sergey Aleksashenko - Google news search] | ||
| + | |||
| + | Vladislav Inozemtsev: | ||
| + | |||
| + | Vladislav Leonidovich Inozemtsev is a Russian academician who is the director of the Moscow-based Centre for Research on Post-Industrial Societies, a nonprofit think tank. He is a professor and the chair at the Department of World Economy, Faculty of Public Governance, Moscow State Lomonosov University.[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladislav_Inozemtsev] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://archive.is/becjN#selection-1923.20-1923.40 The odds of Russia's economy collapsing are 'extremely small' and the war can go on for the long], Vladislav Inozemstev, 2024 | ||
| + | *[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=884896eda14e76c3&sxsrf=ADLYWILJcjkm81G_yXAWbh30qR-r1pF8BA:1731682389834&q=Vladislav+Inozemtsev&tbm=nws&source=lnms&fbs=AEQNm0Aa4sjWe7Rqy32pFwRj0UkWtG_mNb-HwafvV8cKK_h1a5eSkyfXNgRC6a9SKsMT7FKel2oEVH7CAeL9GJLZ9zSE1b0VTwOacLkI4XgtHWeWNmKPMmJVT-fsL2j8HgVBOedFE0rcv3l9ce7iX7VQHiBT41qOitP2uFNPJwqo3Nj1J21-Gh5tg3bNyqf1kLEJ7mR0Orp4LTigYJIGRfW985SFZs7PWg&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwikzNbNy96JAxW-jYkEHQ22AwcQ0pQJegQIEBAB&biw=1920&bih=917&dpr=1 Vladislav Inozemtsev - Google news] | ||
'''Alexandra Prokopenko:''' | '''Alexandra Prokopenko:''' | ||
| Line 476: | Line 809: | ||
*[https://twitter.com/amenka Alexandra Prokopenko - Twitter] | *[https://twitter.com/amenka Alexandra Prokopenko - Twitter] | ||
| + | |||
| + | Key articles by Alexandra Prokopenko: | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://archive.ph/AmzBB#selection-1699.0-1699.60 Russia’s new budget is a blueprint for war, despite the cost], Financial Times, 2024 | ||
| + | *[https://archive.ph/ikvr0#selection-1499.0-1499.110 Russia's economy faces an 'unsolvable trilemma' but can survive for several more years, think tank expert says], Business Insider, 2024. "Defense and national security spending will account for 8% of GDP and 40% of all federal expenditures, Prokopeko said — the highest level since the Soviet Union's collapse. In boosting spending to such heights, Russian President Vladimir Putin is effectively dismissing brewing economic imbalances as other parts of the budget become squeezed. This shift toward a military-oriented economy could last up to eight years, she pred, but will come back to bite Russia down the road." | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Anders Aslund:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.google.com/search?q=Anders+Aslund&sca_esv=a705397e3bbcc753&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ADLYWILZVJBgVAbo38cFzjey-mCtYdbxfA:1729345038608&ei=DrYTZ4DmJPn8ptQPpLuUoQU&start=10&sa=N&ved=2ahUKEwiApeGlyJqJAxV5vokEHaQdJVQQ8tMDegQIBBAE&biw=1920&bih=917&dpr=1 Anders Aslund], Swedish economist - Google News | ||
| + | |||
'''Jeffrey Sonnenfeld''' | '''Jeffrey Sonnenfeld''' | ||
| Line 483: | Line 826: | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=+Jeffrey+Sonnenfeld&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Jeffrey Sonnenfeld - YouTube], YouTube | *[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=+Jeffrey+Sonnenfeld&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Jeffrey Sonnenfeld - YouTube], YouTube | ||
| − | |||
| − | + | Russian war machine and its sensitivity to oil prices: | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | It is argued that only a slump in oil prices will stop Russia's war efforts (See: [https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/only-an-oil-slump-can-stop-vladimir-putin-2024-03-18/ Only an oil slump can stop Vladimir Putin], Reuters, 2024). | |
| − | + | ||
| − | *[https:// | + | *[https://archive.is/qP0R3#selection-695.0-695.91 Saudi Arabia has a big plan for oil that could hammer Russia’s war machine, economists warn], Fortune magazine, October 14, 2024 |
Russian oil: Lower production and lower profits: | Russian oil: Lower production and lower profits: | ||
| + | *[https://archive.is/tuyE6#selection-501.0-501.67 Donald Trump’s Presidency Will Likely Boost U.S. Oil Output In 2025], Fortune, November 6, 2024 | ||
| + | *[https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russias-Oil-Revenues-Plunged-29-in-October-as-Crude-Prices-Fell.html Russia’s Oil Revenues Plunged 29% in October as Crude Prices Fell], Oilprice.com | ||
| + | *[https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Fall-as-Trump-Inches-Toward-Victory.html Oil Prices Fall as Trump Inches Toward Victory], Oilprice.com) | ||
*[https://archive.ph/RzRRI The Golden Age of Russian Oil Nears an End] | *[https://archive.ph/RzRRI The Golden Age of Russian Oil Nears an End] | ||
*[https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Future-of-Russian-Oil-Production-in-the-Short-Medium-and-Long-Term-Insight-57.pdf The Future of Russian Oil Production in the Short, Medium, and Long Term], [https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/the-future-of-russian-oil-production-in-the-short-medium-and-long-term/ Abstract] | *[https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Future-of-Russian-Oil-Production-in-the-Short-Medium-and-Long-Term-Insight-57.pdf The Future of Russian Oil Production in the Short, Medium, and Long Term], [https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/the-future-of-russian-oil-production-in-the-short-medium-and-long-term/ Abstract] | ||
| Line 528: | Line 850: | ||
*[https://theins.ru/en/opinion/igor-lipsitz/267664 The “no human” factor: How Russia’s workforce shortage rolls back its economic development] | *[https://theins.ru/en/opinion/igor-lipsitz/267664 The “no human” factor: How Russia’s workforce shortage rolls back its economic development] | ||
| − | + | ==== Russian culture overview ==== | |
| − | + | International relations: | |
| + | *[https://bigthink.com/the-past/russia-myths-and-realities/ Why Russia sees itself as much more than just a nation] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJSDdCPpbto Prof. Kotkin: "Russia: Back to the USSR or Back to the Tsarist Empire?"] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAu9prBL5Bs To Run the World: The Kremlin's Cold War Bid for Global Power] by [https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=a54abf1cb7933d7b&sxsrf=ADLYWIKErN7yDBLSf7gc2p9B7MzJPbndhw:1729612938328&q=Sergey+Radchenko&tbm=nws&source=lnms&fbs=AEQNm0Aa4sjWe7Rqy32pFwRj0UkWtG_mNb-HwafvV8cKK_h1a5eSkyfXNgRC6a9SKsMT7FKel2oEVH7CAeL9GJLZ9zSE1b0VTwOacLkI4XgtHWeWNoh5zOuUDAXdYlDCgudMwVm8Q_C3PSXnqvYaHPM-f2C27OJHIBf2F026DrNVVK7DrYYq11uFIXF7ScJ7Y69on5hm6hl6qngG8jwgq0xGMIetYDw-cw&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjPxaamrqKJAxUvkokEHTZYJ-EQ0pQJegQIERAB&biw=1920&bih=917&dpr=1 Sergey Radchenko] | ||
| + | |||
| + | Culture: | ||
| + | |||
| + | *Russian culture, traditions and art: [https://www.livescience.com/44154-russian-culture.html#:~:text=Russian%20culture%20has%20a%20long,to%20its%20ornate%20religious%20symbols. Russian Culture: Facts, Customs & Traditions] and [https://www.britannica.com/place/Russia/Cultural-life Russian Culture, Traditions, Arts - Britannica] and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culture_of_Russia culture of Russia] and [https://culturalatlas.sbs.com.au/russian-culture/russian-culture-core-concepts Russian culture - Core Concepts] and [https://www.tota.world/article/1601 Russian Cultural Overview] and [https://www.advantour.com/russia/culture.htm Russian Culture] and [https://www.56thparallel.com/russian-traditions/ A guide to: Russian Traditions, Culture, Customs & Etiquette] | ||
*[https://greenhearttravel.org/blog/teach-in-a-homestay-russia/5-characteristics-of-russian-culture-i-have-learned-from-my-host-family 5 Characteristics of Russian Culture I Have Learned from My Host Family While Teaching English] | *[https://greenhearttravel.org/blog/teach-in-a-homestay-russia/5-characteristics-of-russian-culture-i-have-learned-from-my-host-family 5 Characteristics of Russian Culture I Have Learned from My Host Family While Teaching English] | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWo-PXvaXLAA35Je934wbfev6BMCGkK61 Contemporary Russia before the war in Ukraine and Russian history] - video playlist | *[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWo-PXvaXLAA35Je934wbfev6BMCGkK61 Contemporary Russia before the war in Ukraine and Russian history] - video playlist | ||
| Line 537: | Line 866: | ||
Other cultural overview: | Other cultural overview: | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnKsO1LDRrM The Black Legend of Russian History - The Burning Archive Podcast Remixed] | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcFfQ3-2onM A brief history of Russia with Sergei Guriev] | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcFfQ3-2onM A brief history of Russia with Sergei Guriev] | ||
| + | *[https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2010/10/INOZEMTSEV/19776#partage Russia, a society without citizens] by Vladislav Inozemtsev, Monde Diplomatique, 2010 | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jqnx3La76jc Why Russia is so poor and weak], video | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoZ6dBCgk1M Why Is Russia Not Rich?], 2024, video, History Scope | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fJ6j-kUcvc The History Behind Russia's Expansionary Foreign Policy with Stephen Kotkin | Policy Stories] | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVooyeCm_YM Plenary 1: Russia, Civilization, and Western Liberalism] | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVooyeCm_YM Plenary 1: Russia, Civilization, and Western Liberalism] | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0Zv7MGPpIo Unwrapping The Enigma, Mystery And Riddle: Stephen Kotkin Explains Russia To Andrew Roberts] | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0Zv7MGPpIo Unwrapping The Enigma, Mystery And Riddle: Stephen Kotkin Explains Russia To Andrew Roberts] | ||
| + | *[https://www.historynewsnetwork.org/article/are-russians-really-long-suffering Are Russians really longsuffering? Russia is more prone to revolution and revolutionary change than places like the United States, United Kingdom or many other modern democratic counties], History Network | ||
| + | *[https://www.aei.org/op-eds/russias-ukraine-resurgence-shows-its-often-down-but-never-out/ Russia’s Ukraine Resurgence Shows It’s Often Down but Never Out] by Hal Brands, 2024 | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/@VladVexler/videos Vlad Vexler] | *[https://www.youtube.com/@VladVexler/videos Vlad Vexler] | ||
*[https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/a-look-at-russian-civilization-power-truth-trust-and-war A LOOK AT RUSSIAN CIVILIZATION: POWER, TRUTH, TRUST, AND WAR] | *[https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/a-look-at-russian-civilization-power-truth-trust-and-war A LOOK AT RUSSIAN CIVILIZATION: POWER, TRUTH, TRUST, AND WAR] | ||
| Line 552: | Line 888: | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWz2deJZppE&t=670s Russian television excerpts - Russian imperialism] | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWz2deJZppE&t=670s Russian television excerpts - Russian imperialism] | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou8mI_ce80s 'The borders of Russia do not end' says Putin at awards ceremony - November 24, 2016] (Russian Geographic Society in Moscow) | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou8mI_ce80s 'The borders of Russia do not end' says Putin at awards ceremony - November 24, 2016] (Russian Geographic Society in Moscow) | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Religiosity percentages of Russians:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/pulpit-propaganda-machine-tracing-russian-orthodox-churchs-role-putins-war Religiosity percentages of Russians - chart] | ||
Essay: [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future|Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]] and [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU0resswOds The true impact of a year of war on Russia's economy ] | Essay: [[Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future|Why I am not bullish on Russia's future]] and [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU0resswOds The true impact of a year of war on Russia's economy ] | ||
| Line 557: | Line 897: | ||
Russia and fertility rate and demographics: | Russia and fertility rate and demographics: | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5n9HXNmTro The Hidden Crisis Destroying Russia From the Inside], Video | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuhgLlxJMkU Demographics of the Orthodox Christain world] by [[Peter Zeihan]] | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuhgLlxJMkU Demographics of the Orthodox Christain world] by [[Peter Zeihan]] | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-pdZSv7G10&t=23s Russia's Demographic Crisis Explained - TLDR News] | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-pdZSv7G10&t=23s Russia's Demographic Crisis Explained - TLDR News] | ||
| Line 568: | Line 909: | ||
'''Putin:''' | '''Putin:''' | ||
| − | *[https://sites.google.com/view/vlad-putin-101/home Vladimir Putin - history and analysis] | + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BItVlwystr8 Drunk president who created Vladimir Putin - The story of Boris Yeltsin] and [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9YnDirqwT4 Best of drunk Boris Yeltsin!] |
| − | *[https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/putin-the-planner/ Putin the planner] | + | *[https://sites.google.com/view/vlad-putin-101/home Vladimir Putin - history and analysis] - Google sites |
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnWp_kr4tfc What Everyone Needs to Know about Russia Under Putin - FPRI's 2018 Champagne Brunch for Partners] (Russia is a paradox of strengths and weaknesses) | ||
| + | *[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-17/why-china-s-sinking-economy-could-backfire-on-vladimir-putin/104355186 Why China's sinking economy could backfire on Vladimir Putin , Australian Broadcasting Corporation], 2024 | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRnBoEcVW9Q The Complete History Of Vladimir Putin's Rise To Power] - video | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zti6uiQxfgM Vladimir Putin: Life of a Modern Warlord] - video | ||
| + | *[https://mishtalk.com/uncategorized/its-time-to-discuss-putin-derangement-syndrome-pds-type-i-and-type-ii/ It’s Time to Discuss Putin Derangement Syndrome (PDS) Type I and Type II] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1Oxe_LijfM Andrei Kolesnikov: Putin’s Fragile Compact With the Russian People | Foreign Affairs Interview], 2024 | ||
| + | *[https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/putin-the-planner/ Putin the planner] and [https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLbjmSS6LZDGrWm7mLrUiJj_a0EapkZpvP Putin: We Must Understand What Makes him tick] - Andrei Illarionov, formerly a Senior Policy Adviser during Putin's early period as President] | ||
*[https://networks.h-net.org/node/28443/reviews/1675147/lynch-lourie-putin-his-downfall-and-russias-coming-crash Lynch on Lourie, 'Putin: His Downfall and Russia's Coming Crash'] | *[https://networks.h-net.org/node/28443/reviews/1675147/lynch-lourie-putin-his-downfall-and-russias-coming-crash Lynch on Lourie, 'Putin: His Downfall and Russia's Coming Crash'] | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEaDRnIFIzY The Putin Paradox: The Missed Opportunity of 1989 & Beyond | Feb. 12, 2020], video (Russia scholar [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Sakwa Richard Sakwa] was featured on [[The Duran]] on March, 11, 2024).[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaC2t-BdB20] | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEaDRnIFIzY The Putin Paradox: The Missed Opportunity of 1989 & Beyond | Feb. 12, 2020], video (Russia scholar [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Sakwa Richard Sakwa] was featured on [[The Duran]] on March, 11, 2024).[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaC2t-BdB20] | ||
| Line 575: | Line 923: | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sB8_322qbM President Putin asks outgoing government to remain at work - Richard Sakwa], 2020 | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sB8_322qbM President Putin asks outgoing government to remain at work - Richard Sakwa], 2020 | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvOINAeRSMQ Putin Debate | Richard Sakwa | Oxford Union], 2014 (Achievements and downsides of Putin) | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvOINAeRSMQ Putin Debate | Richard Sakwa | Oxford Union], 2014 (Achievements and downsides of Putin) | ||
| + | *[https://archive.is/5N6JE 8 over-the-top, macho Putin stunts that were nowhere near as impressive as they seemed], Business Insider, 2019 | ||
*[https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-dismissed-us-warnings-days-before-moscow-concert-hall-attack-2024-3 Putin dismissed US warnings about a potential terror incident as 'blackmail' just 3 days before Moscow concert hall attack] | *[https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-dismissed-us-warnings-days-before-moscow-concert-hall-attack-2024-3 Putin dismissed US warnings about a potential terror incident as 'blackmail' just 3 days before Moscow concert hall attack] | ||
| + | *Putin fell down stairs, soiled himself as speculation over worsening health grows: report.[https://nypost.com/2022/12/02/putin-fell-down-stairs-soiled-himself-amid-health-woes-report/][https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/putin-fell-down-stairs-soiled-himself-claims-report-amid-health-rumours/articleshow/95982373.cms][https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/vladimir-putin-news-russia-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-health-vladimir-putin-falls-down-stairs-soils-himself-at-official-residence-report-101670128999409.html][https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11494595/Vladimir-Putin-fell-stairs-home-soiled-himself.html] | ||
| + | *[https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4839613-another-russian-mercenary-leader-has-turned-against-putin/ Another Russian mercenary leader has turned against Putin], 2024, The Hill | ||
'''Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?''' | '''Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?''' | ||
| Line 591: | Line 942: | ||
'''Ukraine:''' | '''Ukraine:''' | ||
| + | *[https://sites.google.com/view/ukraine-powderkeg/home Ukraine - Google sites] | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEIFwLKlq1Q Kim Iversen: Former NATO Analyst & Top UN Official Says THIS Is The REAL Reason For War In Ukraine] | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEIFwLKlq1Q Kim Iversen: Former NATO Analyst & Top UN Official Says THIS Is The REAL Reason For War In Ukraine] | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fTxHIVUjRc The Chris Hedges Report: The truth about Ukraine with Medea Benjamin] - History of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia (And U.S. involvement) | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fTxHIVUjRc The Chris Hedges Report: The truth about Ukraine with Medea Benjamin] - History of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia (And U.S. involvement) | ||
| Line 601: | Line 953: | ||
*[https://time.com/6969273/russias-war-against-evangelicals/ Russia’s War Against Evangelicals], Time, 2024 | *[https://time.com/6969273/russias-war-against-evangelicals/ Russia’s War Against Evangelicals], Time, 2024 | ||
| − | ==== Russia's fertility rate ==== | + | ==== Russia's fertility rate and demographic crisis ==== |
| + | *[https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/a-russia-without-russians-putins-disastrous-demographics/ A Russia without Russians? Putin’s disastrous demographics], August 2024 | ||
| + | *[https://www.intellinews.com/russia-s-fertility-rate-is-catastrophically-low-335864/ Russia's fertility rate is "catastrophically low"], bne IntelliNews, July 29, 2024 | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXfNGcMSwzU Russia is Running Out of People], 2024 | ||
*[https://russiapost.info/economy/children Can Putin’s Russia Have More Children, Boost Growth and Reduce Poverty All at Once?], Russia Post, 2024 | *[https://russiapost.info/economy/children Can Putin’s Russia Have More Children, Boost Growth and Reduce Poverty All at Once?], Russia Post, 2024 | ||
| + | |||
| + | "So far, Moscow has demonstrated long-term adeptness in its policies toward immigrants, relaxing regulations when they were most needed. For instance, it admitted more immigrants after the pandemic and during the war, gradually simplified the rules for granting citizenship, and compensated for the natural population decline through naturalisation. This flexible approach, regardless of the current social climate in the country, is likely to continue. Although this will not reverse the negative trends, it will significantly mitigate them to prevent a demographic collapse. However, '''Russia’s plans could be thwarted by a severe economic downturn''', which would discourage immigrants from Central Asia and the Caucasus from choosing Russia as a destination for economic migration."[https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2024-07-03/short-term-stability-and-long-term-problems-demographic] | ||
| + | |||
| + | "An increase in beatings, vandalism and episodes of racism against Central Asian migrants has been reported in Russia since the deadly attacks at Moscow's Crocus City Hall last Friday."[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68665896] | ||
==== Russian diaspora ==== | ==== Russian diaspora ==== | ||
| Line 618: | Line 977: | ||
'''Russia is experiencing a large brain drain:''' | '''Russia is experiencing a large brain drain:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/2024/11/russias-economy-is-that-of-shrinking.html Russia's brain drain] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://archive.is/aA1vB#selection-1351.0-1351.127 Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's], Business Insider, 2024 (Makes a 2026 forecast) | ||
*[https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9 Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's], Business Insider, September 2023 | *[https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9 Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's], Business Insider, September 2023 | ||
| Line 698: | Line 1,061: | ||
*[https://www.cidob.org/publicaciones/serie_de_publicacion/notes_internacionals/n1_213/will_russia_return_to_europe Will Russia Return to Europe?], 2019 | *[https://www.cidob.org/publicaciones/serie_de_publicacion/notes_internacionals/n1_213/will_russia_return_to_europe Will Russia Return to Europe?], 2019 | ||
| − | == | + | == BRICS == |
| − | + | 2024: | |
| − | + | BRICS are not agreeing on a common currency so it's not much of an international trade organization. | |
| − | + | BRICS is a China lead/dominated organization subsidized by China. China accounts for about 52% to 70% of the BRICS group's total GDP. If China keeps having economic problems, BRICS probably doesn't have much a future. | |
| − | + | With the addition of new members in BRICS+, the group of emerging powers will be more globally representative — but also face more internal divisions.[https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/brics-summit-emerging-middle-powers-g7-g20?lang=en] For example, "In a major setback to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Brazil has decided against joining Beijing’s multi-billion-dollar initiative becoming the second country after India in the BRICS bloc not to endorse the mega project."[https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/brazil-becomes-second-brics-country-after-india-not-to-join-chinas-bri/article68809530.ece] | |
| − | + | China and India's historical disagreements regarding membership expansion will shape the prospects of aspiring BRICS countries and the organization's future. | |
| − | ''' | + | 2019 source: "China is playing the leading role in this process, as a main investor and importer of FDI (foreign direct investment) and trade partner in BRICS group... Trade and investment cooperation of China with other BRICS countries exerts very strong impact on the development of their economies. China continue to deepen its economic ties with other BRICS countries and open up its financial market to serve as a cushion against rising global uncertainty. Development of Intra-BRICS trade and investment cooperation is very important in the context of trade war imposed by the USA against China." '''But China is having economic weakness in 2024.'''[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1043951X19300100#:~:text=China%20is%20playing%20the%20leading,formation%20of%20their%20economic%20growth.] |
| − | + | == Better demographics and a country being a stronger power == | |
| − | + | *[https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/political-demography-how-population-changes-are-reshaping-international-security-and-national Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics] | |
| + | *[https://archive.ph/GXmVr With Great Demographics Comes Great Power], Foreign Affairs, July/August 2019 | ||
| + | *[https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/geosci.2023043?viewType=HTML Demography, geopolitics and great power: A lesson from the past], Aim Press, 2023 | ||
| + | *[https://www.isa-world.com/news/?tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=410&cHash=75d2b3ca20ed102940b3a64ce8f44b4e The Geopolitical Importance of Demographic Power], 2018 | ||
| − | + | === USA and demographics and it being favorable to other major powers === | |
| − | *[https://www. | + | *[https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/13/united-states-demographic-edge-china-russia-birthrates/ The United States Has a Keen Demographic Edge], May 13, 2024 |
| + | *[https://www.polytechnique-insights.com/en/braincamps/geopolitics/do-demographics-still-weigh-in-on-geopolitics/demographics-in-the-us-are-a-source-of-power/ Demographics in the US are a source of power], Polytechnique Insights, Paris | ||
| − | + | == Countries by population == | |
| − | *[https:// | + | *[https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/ Countries by population size] |
| − | + | == World economics and trends == | |
| − | + | === Global weekly economic update === | |
| − | *[https:// | + | *[https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/global-economic-outlook/weekly-update.html Global weekly economic update], Deloitte |
| − | + | === GNP by country === | |
| − | + | Per capita: | |
| − | *[https:// | + | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_(PPP)_per_capita List of countries by GNI (PPP) per capita] |
| + | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GNI_(nominal)_per_capita List of countries by GNI (nominal) per capita List of countries by GNI (nominal) per capita] | ||
| − | + | Total GNP: | |
| − | + | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_national_income Gross national income] | |
| + | *[https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ranking/gnp-gross-national-product GNP by country], Macrotrends | ||
| + | *[https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/gnp-by-country GNP by country], Worldpopulationreview.com | ||
| − | + | === 2023 === | |
| − | *[https://www. | + | *[https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-105-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/ Visualizing the $105 Trillion World Economy in One Chart], August 2023 |
| + | *[https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-richest-countries-2023-gdp-per-capita/ Ranked: The World’s 25 Richest Countries by GDP per Capita], 2023 | ||
| − | + | == 2024: Stephen Kotkin on international relations and geopolitics == | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/ | + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oevcTSV0tO8 Stephen Kotkin on Lost in Translation: World Order & Word Order | HISPBC Ch.1], 2024 |
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqFZam02Kmg Stephen Kotkin on Principles & Pragmatism: Walking the Geopolitical Tightrope | HISPBC Ch.2], 2024 | ||
| − | + | == World News == | |
| − | + | '''World news Western perspective:''' | |
| − | *[https://www. | + | *[https://wng.org/ World News] - Christian website |
| + | *[https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/ World news - United Press International] | ||
| + | *[https://www.reuters.com/world/ World News - Reuters] | ||
| + | *[https://www.wsj.com/world?mod=nav_top_section Wall Street Journal] | ||
| + | *[https://apnews.com/world-news World news - Associated Press] | ||
| − | + | '''World News - NonWestern perspective:''' | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ | + | *[https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world Times of India - World news] |
| + | *[https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news Hindustan Times - World news] | ||
| + | *[https://www.wionews.com/world Wion News - World] | ||
| + | *[https://www.rt.com/news/ Russia Today - World news] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@HT-Videos/videos Hindustan Times - YouTube] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_gUM8rL-Lrg6O3adPW9K1g/videos WION news] | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@BusinessBasicsYT/videos Business basics] - Mixed bag of quality, geopolitics | ||
| − | + | '''Non-Western international politics YouTube channels perspective:''' | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | ''' | + | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/videos The Duran] | *[https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/videos The Duran] | ||
| − | |||
| − | |||
| − | |||
*[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning | *[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@CaspianReport/videos The Caspian Report], [[Azerbaijan]] based, Mixed bag in terms of quality | ||
| − | + | '''World news. Data-driven UK YouTube video channel:''' | |
| − | *[https://www.youtube.com/@ | + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@JoeBlogs/videos Joe Blogs] |
| − | + | == Israel == | |
| − | + | Times of Israel: | |
| − | + | *[https://www.timesofisrael.com/ Times of Israel website] | |
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@TimesofIsrael/videos Times of Israel - YouTube] | ||
| − | + | CBN News: | |
| − | *[https:// | + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@CBNnewsonline/search?query=israel CBN News - Israel], YouTube |
| − | + | General: | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEoVzKyD_IM Here’s THE TRUTH About the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (A Comprehensive History)] by Ben Shapiro | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEoVzKyD_IM Here’s THE TRUTH About the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (A Comprehensive History)] by Ben Shapiro | ||
| Line 848: | Line 1,197: | ||
== NATO == | == NATO == | ||
| − | *[https://sites.google.com/view/ | + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaZQhrwSBcE What is NATO? Explained in 1 minute] |
| + | |||
| + | As of 2024, the USA pays 16% of NATO's total budget.[https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/us-contributes-16-nato-annual-budget-not-two-thirds-2024-05-31/] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://sites.google.com/view/nato-intfo-other-info/home NATO] - Google sites | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEoY7OT3xwE Why NATO may have to stop a Russian invasion - without the US], Daily Mail, 2023 | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEoY7OT3xwE Why NATO may have to stop a Russian invasion - without the US], Daily Mail, 2023 | ||
*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO%E2%80%93Russia_relations#:~:text=In%201991%2C%20as%20the%20Soviet,aim%20was%20to%20join%20NATO. NATO–Russia relations] | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO%E2%80%93Russia_relations#:~:text=In%201991%2C%20as%20the%20Soviet,aim%20was%20to%20join%20NATO. NATO–Russia relations] | ||
| − | |||
| − | |||
=== Expansion of NATO === | === Expansion of NATO === | ||
| − | ''' | + | '''Did the USA promise not to expand in 1990? No, it did not view:''' |
| + | *[https://bitterwinter.org/myth-of-the-american-coups-in-ukraine-4-the-nato/ Did the NATO Really Promise Not to Expand Eastward?], Bitter Winter | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dwe8l8to8pA Stephen Kotkin on Russia’s argument to NATO expansion] - anti-Russian/Putin argument on NATO expansion | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dwe8l8to8pA Stephen Kotkin on Russia’s argument to NATO expansion] - anti-Russian/Putin argument on NATO expansion | ||
*"But it was Vladimir Putin himself who signed the Rome Declaration on 28 May 2002. The same piece of paper I signed, which enshrined the basic principles of territorial integrity and non-interference in other countries. He signed that. He can't blame anybody else."[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68359252] | *"But it was Vladimir Putin himself who signed the Rome Declaration on 28 May 2002. The same piece of paper I signed, which enshrined the basic principles of territorial integrity and non-interference in other countries. He signed that. He can't blame anybody else."[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68359252] | ||
| − | Historian Mary E. Sarotte on issue of whether the West promised no NATO expansion: | + | Historian Mary E. Sarotte on the issue of whether the West promised no NATO expansion: |
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cTFk6MNUHQ&t=2576s Historian Mary E. Sarotte argues that there was no promised for NATO not to expand eastward] | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cTFk6MNUHQ&t=2576s Historian Mary E. Sarotte argues that there was no promised for NATO not to expand eastward] | ||
| Line 874: | Line 1,226: | ||
*''Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate'' by Mary E. Sarotte. Yale University Press; First Edition (November 30, 2021) | *''Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate'' by Mary E. Sarotte. Yale University Press; First Edition (November 30, 2021) | ||
| + | '''Did the USA promise not to expand in 1990? Middle of the road view:''' | ||
| − | + | *[https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/40/4/7/12126/Deal-or-No-Deal-The-End-of-the-Cold-War-and-the-U Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and the U.S. Offer to Limit NATO Expansion ], MIT | |
| − | + | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVt-WXTLIZM Did NATO promise Russia never to expand to the east? | DW News], claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVt-WXTLIZM Did NATO promise Russia never to expand to the east? | DW News], claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO | ||
| − | ''' | + | '''Did the USA promise not to expand in 1990? Yes, it did view''' |
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mciLyG9iexE Stephen F. Cohen: NATO expansion and Russia], claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mciLyG9iexE Stephen F. Cohen: NATO expansion and Russia], claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO | ||
| Line 921: | Line 1,273: | ||
=== John Mearsheimer's view === | === John Mearsheimer's view === | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://mearsheimer.substack.com/ John Mearsheimer's substack] | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aNMOEQ0248 The 2022 Holberg Debate w/ John Mearsheimer and Carl Bildt: Ukraine, Russia, China and the West] | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aNMOEQ0248 The 2022 Holberg Debate w/ John Mearsheimer and Carl Bildt: Ukraine, Russia, China and the West] | ||
| Line 933: | Line 1,287: | ||
Background info that Mearsheimer doesn't discuss: China is in economic decline, but it might attack Taiwan to distract from domestic economic problems. But such a war would hurt it economically since it is a trading nation and the Chinese appear to know that. Chinese threats of attacking Taiwan may be political kabuki theatre for its domestic population to distract from its interal problems. | Background info that Mearsheimer doesn't discuss: China is in economic decline, but it might attack Taiwan to distract from domestic economic problems. But such a war would hurt it economically since it is a trading nation and the Chinese appear to know that. Chinese threats of attacking Taiwan may be political kabuki theatre for its domestic population to distract from its interal problems. | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== Limitations/problems of Mearsheimer's view ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14kEIoXdVwE Why John Mearsheimer is wrong about realism, great power politics and history], The Burning Archive | ||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QojwHRTCWls Here’s Where Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer Disagree] | ||
=== Peter Zeihan's view === | === Peter Zeihan's view === | ||
| Line 943: | Line 1,302: | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio] -2022 (Ray Dahlio has some good ideas, but he is inconsistent when it comes to China[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1iv0q_SW3E]) | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio] -2022 (Ray Dahlio has some good ideas, but he is inconsistent when it comes to China[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1iv0q_SW3E]) | ||
| − | == Changing civilizational world order == | + | === Changing civilizational world order === |
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TmmhwQs10s Why the post-1989 global system is facing collapse] | ||
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3PXFA1xaCk Civilizational World Order w/Dr. Steve Turley] - Listen to this | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3PXFA1xaCk Civilizational World Order w/Dr. Steve Turley] - Listen to this | ||
| + | |||
| + | === Anti-American axis (China/Russia/Iran/North Korea === | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qw7xG1KGC_U The US's enemies want to shatter the world order] | ||
| + | |||
== Globalization of trade == | == Globalization of trade == | ||
| Line 959: | Line 1,324: | ||
* [https://sites.google.com/view/peoplewhofallforpropaganda/home Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda] | * [https://sites.google.com/view/peoplewhofallforpropaganda/home Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda] | ||
| − | == Military, | + | == Imperialism, interventionism and isolationism == |
| + | |||
| + | *[https://sites.google.com/view/imperialism-isolationism/home Imperialism, interventionism and isolationism] - Google sites | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Military == | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[[User: Conservative/military|Military]] | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Top 10 militaries by strength == | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Rankings of the world's top militaries:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | Articles may not take into account alliances such as NATO, Aukus, etc. [https://sites.google.com/view/nato-intfo-other-info/home NATO] has a provision that an attack on one country is an attack on all of the countries. See: [https://sites.google.com/view/nato-intfo-other-info/home NATO articles and videos] | ||
| + | |||
| + | The U.S.-Japan Alliance (日米同盟, Nichi-Bei Dōmei) is a military alliance between Japan and the United States of America, as codified in the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, which was first signed in 1951, took effect in 1952, and was amended in 1960.[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S.%E2%80%93Japan_Alliance#:~:text=The%20U.S.%2DJapan%20Alliance%20(%E6%97%A5,and%20was%20amended%20in%201960.] | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Articles and resources:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.globalfirepower.com/ Global Firepower website] | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://indianexpress.com/article/trending/top-10-listing/top-10-most-powerful-countries-in-the-world-by-military-strength-in-2024-9382565/ Top 10 most powerful countries in the world by military strength in 2024], Indian Express, 2024[https://archive.is/jqbGj] (The USA, UK, Turkey and Italy are members of NATO). | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Military, wars, mass murder and expense == | ||
[[File:WWII collage.JPG|thumbnail|right|300px|[[WWII]] photo montage]] | [[File:WWII collage.JPG|thumbnail|right|300px|[[WWII]] photo montage]] | ||
"The level of war in the world seems to have risen to 1989 (post-WWII) peak levels and holding, ending the pacific 1989-2006 era. Does this contradict the Decline of Violence (Pinker) / End of History ([[Francis Fukuyama|Fukuyama]]) theses, or is it just a blip?". - Professor [[Eric Kaufmann]], Twitter/X.[https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1744338524994748831], See: [https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace War and Peace]. | "The level of war in the world seems to have risen to 1989 (post-WWII) peak levels and holding, ending the pacific 1989-2006 era. Does this contradict the Decline of Violence (Pinker) / End of History ([[Francis Fukuyama|Fukuyama]]) theses, or is it just a blip?". - Professor [[Eric Kaufmann]], Twitter/X.[https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1744338524994748831], See: [https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace War and Peace]. | ||
| + | |||
| + | === War, debt and the collapse of empires === | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://erikhare.com/2018/09/21/war-debt-collapse-of-the-empire/ War Debt & Collapse of the Empire], 2018 | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/world-history/ancient-medieval/classical-states-and-empires/a/rise-and-fall-of-empires#:~:text=Some%20of%20the%20broad%20factors,Environmental%20issues Comparing how empires fall], Khan Academy | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/whp-origins/era-4-regional/41-systems-collapse-betaa/a/read-empires-fall-beta Empires Fall], Khan Academy | ||
=== How long do wars last? === | === How long do wars last? === | ||
| Line 1,020: | Line 1,415: | ||
=== Military concepts === | === Military concepts === | ||
| − | + | [[Image:Clausewitz.jpg|right|thumb|[[Carl von Clausewitz]] ]] | |
*[[Sun Tzu]] | *[[Sun Tzu]] | ||
*[[Sun Tzu quotes]] | *[[Sun Tzu quotes]] | ||
| Line 1,029: | Line 1,424: | ||
*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawfare Lawfare] | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawfare Lawfare] | ||
*[[Carl von Clausewitz]] | *[[Carl von Clausewitz]] | ||
| + | *[[Antoine-Henri Jomini]] | ||
*[[List of military strategies and concepts]] | *[[List of military strategies and concepts]] | ||
*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth-generation_warfare Fourth generation warfare] | *[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth-generation_warfare Fourth generation warfare] | ||
=== Military competence and incompetence === | === Military competence and incompetence === | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.youtube.com/@Taskandpurpose/videos Task and purpose] (Chris Cappy is a former US Army infantryman and Iraq Veteran. I cover geopolitics, history, weapon systems and all things military related — I do this from a veteran's perspective.). | ||
==== Military competence ==== | ==== Military competence ==== | ||
| Line 1,043: | Line 1,441: | ||
*Military Incompetence: Why the American Military Doesn't Win (American Century) by Richard A. Gabriel. Hill & Wang Pub; First Edition (January 1, 1985) | *Military Incompetence: Why the American Military Doesn't Win (American Century) by Richard A. Gabriel. Hill & Wang Pub; First Edition (January 1, 1985) | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== Are we headed towards WW3? It's not likely - at least not yet ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://today.tamu.edu/2024/02/22/are-we-heading-for-world-war-iii-texas-am-experts-say-its-unlikely/ Are We Heading For World War III? Texas A&M Experts Say It’s Unlikely]: "While recent wars have sparked speculation about an ensuing global conflict, military scholars say comparisons to past world wars are largely overblown." | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://news.sky.com/story/are-we-heading-for-world-war-three-experts-give-their-verdicts-13116540 Are we heading for World War Three? Experts give their verdicts] | ||
| + | *[https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/comments/1ew4r4i/cmv_were_not_heading_towards_world_war_3_or_a/ We are not headed towards WW3 - at least not yet] | ||
| + | *"If I remember correctly, the last anxiety about world war in international public opinion appeared during the Cold War in the 1960s and 1970s... It is both thought-provoking and alarming that talk of world war has become heated and part of official discourse once again after half a century. Looking around, however, it seems that no one is really making plans to start a such a war."[https://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/are-we-heading-into-world-war-iii] | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== Victories in war are not necessarily won by winning battles. Wars can be won by eliminating the enemies will to fight which is a critical factor in winning wars ==== | ||
| + | [[File:Sun Tzu portrait.jpg|thumbnail|right|200px|"Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."- [[Sun Tzu]] ]] | ||
| + | In the Vietnam War, the Vietnamese consistently lost the bigger battles and the U.S. General Westmoreland was obsessed about body counts that showed the USA was "winning". However, although the Tet Offensive was not ultimately not a successful operation militarily, it did win on the propaganda front because it showed the American public that the Vietcong were not on their last legs. Specifically, the Tiet Offensive showed that the Vietmanese still had power to oppose the USA via a large operation and as a result of this the American public soured on the war. One does not win wars solely by winning battles. Breaking the will of the enemy is a key component as far as how wars are won (And wars are generally governed by politics[https://vimeo.com/397320700]). Near the end of the Vietnam War at the peace negotiations, the American officer Harry Summers said to a Vietcong colonel that the USA won on the battlefield and the Vietcong did not. The Vietcong colonel replied back, that's true, but it is also irrelevant.[https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/winning-battles-losing-wars] It was the political context that was more important in the Vietnam War than the military context. But ultimately the the USA won the peace in Vietnam as evidenced by all the Coca Cola now being sold in Vietnam and the current cordial relations between the USA and Vietnam. | ||
| + | |||
| + | One of the things the Russians may face in Ukraine if they win a pyrrhic victory is a Ukrainian insurgency that wears down the Russians. Most insurgencies are not successful and last about 10 years.[https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG965.sum.pdf][https://publications.armywarcollege.edu/News/Display/Article/3890242/the-challenges-of-next-gen-insurgency/#:~:text=Insurgency%2C%20or%20something%20like%20it,discover%20its%20dangers%20and%20inefficacy.] However, The Troubles insurgency in Northern Ireland lasted about 30 years and perhaps the same could happen in Ukraine due to the bitterness of the conflict and due to the intensity of Ukrainian nationalism. This may come into play because of two factors: First, [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmeZRN6YrN0 Russia defector reveals 'majority' of people inside Kremlin unhappy with war in Ukraine], ABC News video, July 2023. This shows that some of the will to fight in the Kremlin may have been diminished (But Putin likely calls the shots so this issue is not a definitive point). Secondly, as far as the Kursk invasion, the inability of the Russian state to protect its borders shows this: [https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/05/03/russia-has-failed-as-a-state/ Russia has failed as a state], Modern Diplomacy, 2023 and [https://archive.ph/Jqu2p#selection-637.0-637.99 Almost half of global strategists think Russia could become a failed state within the next 10 years], Fortune magazine, January 23, 2023 and [https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/2024/11/will-russia-become-failed-state-is.html Will Russia become a failed state within 10 years? Is Russia currently a failed state? Will Russia eventually become a failed state?] | ||
| + | |||
| + | "Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." - [[Sun Tzu]] | ||
== Sanctions have a poor record in effectiveness with unintended consequences == | == Sanctions have a poor record in effectiveness with unintended consequences == | ||
| Line 1,074: | Line 1,488: | ||
*[https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/15/west-promises-developing-countries-summit-paris-climate-vaccines-budgets The West has broken its promises to developing countries – and we’re all paying the price], The Guardian, 2023 | *[https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/15/west-promises-developing-countries-summit-paris-climate-vaccines-budgets The West has broken its promises to developing countries – and we’re all paying the price], The Guardian, 2023 | ||
| + | |||
| + | == World politics, peak oil consumption, technology, forecasts, China and Russia == | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''China, economic decline, green energy adoption and oil consumption:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://archive.ph/QcD1u#selection-1481.0-1481.68 Beijing is no longer hiding its panic about the state of its economy], September 2024 | ||
| + | |||
| + | *China is Russia's biggest customer of oil. [https://archive.ph/X9IAg#selection-1239.1-1239.126 China’s oil demand dips, ticks down as economic ebb eases fuel imports], August 2024. China has reduced its oil imports in recent months, as lower economic activity and green energy adoption have depressed demand. | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''USA's oil production:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2024/09/26/why-us-oil-production-is-65-ahead-of-last-years-record-pace/ Why U.S. Oil Production Is 6.5% Ahead Of Last Year’s Record Pace], September 2024. Ongoing growth in U.S. oil output remains a key driver of the global energy market. U.S. crude oil production will almost certainly set a second consecutive record this year, reflecting strong demand and advances in extraction technologies, particularly in shale oil. If Trump is elected, USA oil production may further improve. | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Saudi oil production:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.newsweek.com/saudi-arabia-ramp-oil-production-blow-putin-1959817 Blow to Putin's War Machine As Saudi Arabia Ramps Up Oil Production], September 2024 (If Trump is elected, US-Saudi relations may improve) | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Nuclear power growing due to technological advances:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/nuclear-power-expansion-fuelled-by-small-modular-reactors-says-iaea/51194/ Nuclear power expansion fuelled by small modular reactors, says IAEA'], Nuclear energy capacity is now expected to increase 2.5 times by 2050 compared to current levels. | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Short-term oil price forecast:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-oil-primed-explosive-short-082500855.html Crude Oil Primed for Explosive Short-Squeeze as Bearish Sentiment Peaks], September 2024 | ||
| + | |||
| + | '''Forecast of world oil consumption:''' | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-global-energy-production-in-2023/ Charted: What Powered the World in 2023], Visual Capitalist | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2023/08/06/global-energy-trends-insights-from-the-2023-statistical-review-of-world-energy/ Global Energy Trends: Insights From The 2023 Statistical Review Of World Energy], Forbes, 2023 | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth104/node/1345 Global energy sources by type over time], Graph/pie chart | ||
| + | |||
| + | Exxon Mobil forecast: | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/sustainability-and-reports/global-outlook#ExploretheGlobalOutlook ExxonMobil Global Outlook: Our view to 2050], [https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/global/files/global-outlook/2024/global-outlook-executive-summary.pdf Executive summary] | ||
| + | |||
| + | OPEC Forecasts: | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-Expects-Strong-Global-Oil-Demand-Growth-Through-to-2050.html Russia Expects Strong Global Oil Demand Growth Through to 2050], OilPrice.com, September 2024 | ||
| + | |||
| + | *[https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-rolls-out-global-oil-outlook-2050-sees-no-peak-demand-2024-09-24/#:~:text=OPEC%20expects%20world%20oil%20demand,2050%20forecasts%20from%20the%20industry. OPEC boosts long-term oil demand outlook, driven by developing world growth] | ||
== Notes == | == Notes == | ||
{{Reflist}} | {{Reflist}} | ||
Latest revision as of 09:18, 9 December 2024
Contents
- 1 International relations and geopolitics YouTube channels, websites and podcasts
- 2 International relations websites - Pro-Western
- 3 Major powers: Western World, USA, European nations, China and Russia, World events and world history
- 3.1 Burning Archive
- 3.2 David Woo Unbound
- 3.3 Peter Zeihan
- 3.4 Stephen Kotkin lectures
- 3.5 The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
- 3.6 Search Party
- 3.7 World Politics Review
- 3.8 Adam Tooze
- 3.9 Emmanuel Todd
- 3.10 The changing character of war - Peter Zeihan
- 3.11 Current state of the world in terms of polarity and international relations
- 3.12 Polarity (International relations)
- 3.13 Western World
- 3.14 USA
- 3.15 US/China power competition
- 3.16 USA and international relations
- 3.17 Canada
- 3.18 Europe
- 3.19 India
- 3.20 China
- 3.20.1 Decline of China
- 3.20.2 US-China relations
- 3.20.3 China likely stuck in middle-income trap
- 3.20.4 Chinese export strategy will not work this time
- 3.20.4.1 Biden hits China with steel tariffs
- 3.20.4.1.1 US trade chief calls for action to shield EV sector from China
- 3.20.4.1.2 Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60%
- 3.20.4.1.3 US tariffs against China may spark China-EU Trade War
- 3.20.4.1.4 Communist China's plan to address its property crisis will do tremendous damage to China's economic prospects
- 3.20.4.1.5 Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back
- 3.20.4.2 China and a potential balance sheet recession
- 3.20.4.1 Biden hits China with steel tariffs
- 3.20.5 Anti-China hawks
- 3.20.6 Pro-China doves
- 3.20.7 USA is an era of "cold peace"/frenemies era and not yet cold war yet
- 3.21 Taiwan
- 3.22 Japan
- 3.23 Russia
- 3.24 General info on Russia
- 3.24.1 Leading/insightful historians on Russia
- 3.24.2 Various Scenarios for Russia's future
- 3.24.3 Russia's entering stormy, uncharted, economic waters
- 3.24.4 Russia economy and commentary by economists and financial people
- 3.24.5 Russian culture overview
- 3.24.6 Russia's fertility rate and demographic crisis
- 3.24.7 Russian diaspora
- 3.25 Post Western World notion
- 3.26 Map of world by population size
- 4 BRICS
- 5 Better demographics and a country being a stronger power
- 6 Countries by population
- 7 World economics and trends
- 8 2024: Stephen Kotkin on international relations and geopolitics
- 9 World News
- 10 Israel
- 11 USA foreign policy: Interventionalism vs. Isolationism
- 12 NATO
- 13 China and Christianity
- 14 What would a post-communist China look like?
- 15 World map
- 16 Major power politics in the 21st century for the foreseeable future
- 17 Globalization of trade
- 18 Books
- 19 Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda
- 20 Imperialism, interventionism and isolationism
- 21 Military
- 22 Top 10 militaries by strength
- 23 Military, wars, mass murder and expense
- 23.1 War, debt and the collapse of empires
- 23.2 How long do wars last?
- 23.3 Just war vs. realist view of war
- 23.4 Winning the peace vs. winning a war
- 23.5 Military
- 23.6 Wars and warlike natures
- 23.7 Mass murder
- 23.8 Right-wing death squads vs. Left-wing murderous regimes
- 23.9 Military concepts
- 23.10 Military competence and incompetence
- 24 Sanctions have a poor record in effectiveness with unintended consequences
- 25 International agreements
- 26 World politics, peak oil consumption, technology, forecasts, China and Russia
- 27 Notes
International relations and geopolitics YouTube channels, websites and podcasts
International relations:
Geopolitics:
Geopolitics and Empire
Geopolitics and Empire - Features people from the right, center and left (Conducts interviews with prominent international experts on a wide-range of topics. Past guests have included diplomats, government officials, whistleblowers, soldiers, spies, economists, academics, scientists, wealthy investors, dissidents, journalists, and musicians.):
- Geopolitics and Empire - Apple Podcast
- Geopolitics and Empire - Soundcloud
Burning archive:
- The Burning Archive, YouTube (Former government worker who has studied world history)
- Burning Archive substack, Substack
Popular International relations and geopolitics:
- Zeihan on Geopolitics - Pro-Western
- Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics (YouTube) - Pyotr Kurzin is a British-Russian expat who lives in Washington DC and graduated from Johns Hopkins Univesity.
- Geopolitical Futures - George Friedman
- Caspian Report, Azerbaijan
Nikola Mikovic - Serbian (Tries to be objective realistic)
- Nikola Mikovic - Muckrack
- Nikola Mikovic - Diplomaticourier.com
- Nikola Mikovic - Lowy Institute
- Nikola Mikovic - Arab News
- Nikola Mikovic, American Purpose
Pro-Western YouTube channels:
- RANE (Related to Stratfor)
- Gefira Channel - Netherlands
- Geopolitics Daily - Greece, Very Pro-Western
- Geopolitico - Run by Infographics channel guy
Pro-Western podcasts:
- The Truth of the Matter - Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Brookings Institution Podcast (Current affairs, tech news, economic news and Africa)
- The World in 30 Minutes - European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- ECFR on Air
- Economist Podcast
- First Person - Foreign Policy Podcast]
India:
- Amit Sengupta
- DEF - TALKS by Aadi - India focused
- World Affairs
- WION
- Crux
- Study IQ
Pro-Russia, semi anti-Western, anti-Western or pessimistic about the West/USA
- Dialogue Works - Pro-Russia leaning
Glen Diesen videos:
International relations websites - Pro-Western
- The Diplomat - Asia Pacific - Affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Foreign Policy (Founded by Samuel Huntington, but endorsed Hillary Clinton)
Major powers: Western World, USA, European nations, China and Russia, World events and world history
- Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century by Mark N. Katz, George Mason University, 2018
Burning Archive
- Burning Archive - YouTube
- Burning Archive substack - Substack
- Burning Achive Apple Podcast - Apple Podcast
David Woo Unbound
- David Woo Unbound, YouTube
- David Woo Unbound, Website
Peter Zeihan
Stephen Kotkin lectures
- Stephen Kotkin - Google search
- Stephen Kotkin - YouTube search
- STEPHEN KOTKIN - THE WORLD IN PIECES, September 2024
The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
- The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) - website (Based in Warsaw)
- Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) - YouTube, YouTube (Based in Warsaw)
Search Party
- Search Party - More documentary/entertainment
World Politics Review
Combines realist/liberal internationalist school perspective. Written by several hundred contributors from around the world, experts in a variety of disciplines.
- World Politics Review, website
- World Politics Review, YouTube
Adam Tooze
Emmanuel Todd
- Emmanuel Todd - Contrarian French historian, anthropologist, demographer, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies in Paris.
The changing character of war - Peter Zeihan
Current state of the world in terms of polarity and international relations
Biggest mistakes of view of international politics in terms of distortions are these 3: Geography is destiny (Mackinder), world is simply great power politics (Mearsheimer) and cycles of history (Turchin). See: Three mistakes geopolitics makes about history (Mackinder, Mearsheimer, Turchin). Better way to look at things is look at specific/unique circumstances. Theories/ideology should not trump reality/specific/unique history.
World is currently a mix of nationalism/cultures/global trade and political blocks (West vs. China/Russia/Iran/North Korea. Also, nonaligned countries. USA is still the strongest country in terms of economics, etc.).
Polarity (International relations)
Bipolar:
- The Myth of Multipolarity, American Power’s Staying Power, Foreign Affairs, April 18, 2023
- No, the World Is Not Multipolar, Foreign Affairs, September 22, 2023
- Multipolarity: What Is It Good For? (Discussion of the above Foreign Affairs article The Myth of Multipolarity, 2023)
- The multipolarity thesis: the verdict of Unhedged and Chartbook, FT, 2023 (Argues multipolarity is exaggerated. Focuses on financial)
- Why has the West been so successful? (Stephen Kotkin - Multipolar world is nonsense)
Middle Ground:
- Prospects for a multipolar world order, GS, 2023 (Liechtenstein based)
- 'A Multipolar World With Bipolar Features', video, Stratfor, 2023
- In Defense of Multipolarity, INTERNATIONALE POLITIK QUARTERLY (IPQ), Nov 17, 2023, Germany's leading foreign affairs magazine, offering a Berlin view on foreign affairs.
Multiple views discussed:
- The Long unipolar moment?, Foreign Affairs, 2023 (Article with counter-response) - Focuses on multiple dimensions, etc.
- Assumption Testing: Multipolarity is more dangerous than bipolarity for the United States, October 23, 2023
Multipolar:
- Yes, the World Is Multipolar, and that isn’t bad news for the United States. - Foreign Policy, 2023
- A multipolar world can benefit both US and China: ex-FM George Yeo, The Star, 2023 (Singapore)
- US needs to accept it’s a multipolar world and work with China, South China Morning Post, 2023
- Piece by piece, the BRICS really are building a multipolar world, Atlantic Council, 2023
Focuses on the rise of non-state actors and the state having less power:
- The new age of multipolar, 5D war against the West has begun, The Australian, 2023 (See also: The Fate of the State by MARTIN VAN CREVELD)
Western World
USA
File:Bigger, better, stronger.jpg
“Sadly the American dream is dead, but if I get elected president I will bring it back. Bigger, better and stronger than ever before.” - Donald Trump
See: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
See: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
File:Trump dancing.png
"Surrounded by serious and talented people like J.D. Vance, his running mate, RFK Jr., who abandoned his own campaign to support Trump, former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, Vivek Ramaswamy, Elon Musk and other business leaders, Donald Trump’s campaign will be like Patton’s Third Army racing across France in 1944." - Roger Kimball, Why Kamala Harris will lose', The Spectator, October 21, 2024
Economy:
- USA Composite Leading Index
- USA Leading Index
- USA/Western economic indicators
- US economy - Google News search
- US economy - YouTube search
- US debt
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
US economic outlook:
US long term economic outlook:
USA oil production:
"The US is the largest oil-producing country in the world, with output of 21.91 million barrels per day in 2023, taking the spot for the sixth year in a row."[3]
USA 2030s economic depression forecast:
- 2030s Great Depression (If the USA sees a Great Depression in the 2030s, it will likely affect the whole world. USA 26% of the global economy in 2023 in nominal terms, and about 15.5% in PPP terms.[4])
Articles, leading power:
- These Are the 5 Reasons Why the U.S. Remains the World’s Only Superpower
- The United States Transforms into a Global Superpower, 2024
- The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
USA's power relative to other nations and the aging populations in the major powers:
USA and late Soviet Union comparison flawed:
- No, We Are Not Living in ‘Late Soviet America’, The Dispatch, 2024
- We Aren’t All Soviets Now … Or Are We? | Jonah Goldberg vs. Niall Ferguson - Jonah Goldberg, American Enterprise Institute, 2024
US challenges:
US/China power competition
USA and international relations
Stephen Kotkin, historian (Moderate/liberal view):
- Trump and the Future of American Power. A Conversation With Stephen Kotkin, 2024 (Acknowledges Trump is very American and very unpredictable)
Canada
- Trudeau's Dystopia: How the Woke Conquered Canada. (Prof. Eric Kaufmann)
- Rebel News - Right-wing
- National Post - Right-wing
- CBC News: The National - Mainstream
- CBC News
Europe
File:There are no atheists on a sinking ship.jpg
According to a September 2022 Ipsos poll, 7 in 10 Britons agree that the UK is in decline.[1]
As the HMS United Kingdom was going down, Britons could be heard saying, "We shouldn't have put Charles Darwin on our currency. God is not mocked. We are reaping what we sowed."
As the HMS United Kingdom was going down, Britons could be heard saying, "We shouldn't have put Charles Darwin on our currency. God is not mocked. We are reaping what we sowed."
European News:
- The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) - The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) is the research division of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Europe, a leading American graduate school offering advanced degrees in international relations, international affairs and global risk.
- TLDR Euronews YouTube channel
- Breitbart - Europe
- Europe - Bing news
- France 24 - Europe
- Politico Europe
- Europe - Euronews
- Europe - Google News
Other:
- EU records lowest birthrate amid a steady 60-year decline
- Why is Europe losing the will to breed?- Irish Times, 2016
- David Harsanyi – On Busting the Myth of European Superiority
- Everything You Hear About Europe is Wrong
- David Harsanyi: “Eurotrash”—Rejecting the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent
- David Harsanyi, Author of "Eurotrash" on The Interview with Hugh Hewitt
Europe's anti-Americanism post start of Russia vs. Ukraine War:
- Europe’s anti-American itch, Politico, 2022
Classical liberalism view:
Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent:
- Death Wish - Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent - Claremont Review of Books
- Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent - book
The deindustrialization of Germany/Europe (Europe's economic engine):
France
Germany
India
Websites:
YouTube:
Articles:
China
Economics:
- China composite leading indicator index
- China economy - Google search
- China's debt
Chinese politics and economics:
China and financial websites:
YouTube channels:
- China Update (Pessimistic about China's future)
- Lei's Real talk and Lei's Real talk, Website
- China Uncensored - YouTube
- China Unscripted- YouTube
- China Observer - YouTube
- China Insights - YouTube
- New China TV - YouTube
- China News (Epoch News - China. Falun Gong organization run)
- China in Focus - YouTube (Falun Gong organization just like the Epoch Times)
- South China Morning Post - YouTube
- China Fact Chasers - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel (SerpentZA) and a friend. Both formerly were English teachers in China. Mentions YouTube channels they endorse.
- The China Show - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel (SerpentZA) and a friend.
- ADV China - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel (SerpentZA) and a friend.
- Serpentza - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel. Former English teacher in China
- laowhy86 - YouTube. I am Matthew Tye from Laowhy86. I am a human rights advocate for China.
China:
- The Chinese Collapse: A (MASSIVE) Housing Overbuild || Peter Zeihan
- A Conversation with Professor Stephen Kotkin, Kleinheinz Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution - China by Stephen Kotkin, December 2022
- The End of China? - Nomad capitalist
- The Protestant Work Ethic: Alive & Well…In China
China, leading economic indicators:
- China, leading economic indicators (China's figures are suspect due to corruption of the Chinese Communist Party)
Length of modern, authoritarian/communist regimes:
- The Chinese Communist Party is on the verge of turning today's China into yesterday's Soviet Union
- China's Communist Party is at a fatal age for one-party regimes. How much longer can it survive?
China's property crisis:
Chinese economy: "Growth is slowing at an alarming pace. The most recent figures, for the three months to the end of June, were the worst in five quarters while consumer prices again threaten to tip into negative territory. More alarmingly, the three-year meltdown in its property market continues unabated. What once was chipping away at personal wealth is now running a wrecking ball through the economy, hitting terminally weak household consumption." [5]
Decline of China
US-China relations
Donald Trump and his China policy
- Who Will Trump Listen to On China?, 2024, City Journal
- Donald Trump’s First-Term China Strategy Was A Success, National Interest, 2024
China likely stuck in middle-income trap
- China Confronts the Middle-Income Trap by Nouriel Roubini (economist), Project Syndicate, 2024
- With “Xinomics” Caught in a Trap, China Will Not Join the Ranks of Advanced Economies, September 2023, Nippon.com
China and debt
- CHINA Trillion Yuan Debt Disaster: Stimulus Fails to Deliver Economic Growth & Investment Collapses, 2024 video
Chinese export strategy will not work this time
File:House-of-cards.jpg
In the coming years and decades, the slowing Chinese economy will show that it is a fragile house of cards.
- China Tariffs: US Deals Trade Blow to World's No. 2 Economy, September 2024.
"The U.S.'s steep tariff hikes on Chinese goods took effect on Friday after Beijing criticized the move as mutually destructive protectionism. The Biden administration announced in May that it was upholding tariffs on $300 billion worth of Trump administration tariffs after a four-year review.
Due to China having a significantly higher percentage of world exports than it did 25 years ago, China cannot export its way out of its economic problems because the world is not as able to absorb China's exports (See: China’s Export Game Won’t Work This Time, Forbes, April 15, 2024).
Biden hits China with steel tariffs
US trade chief calls for action to shield EV sector from China
Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60%
- Why Trump tariffs pose a bigger threat to China’s economy this time, Reuters, November 2024
- Trump says US China tariffs needed on other vehicles, products, Reuters, May 14, 2024
- Joe Biden and Donald Trump battle to prove who can be toughest on China, May 16, 2024 Financial Times
In 2023, China's exports made up around 18.9% of its gross domestic product (GDP).
According to World's Top Exports, the United States is one of China's top trading partners, accounting for 14.8% of China's total exports in 2023.
If USA starts decoupling from China, it could spur other countries to as well (Like a contagion). Plus, it would give other countries more bargaining power.
China's economy is already showing "economic cracks".
US tariffs against China may spark China-EU Trade War
Communist China's plan to address its property crisis will do tremendous damage to China's economic prospects
See: Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)
- Real Estate Crisis Bailout: ‘It Could Bankrupt Them’ – China’s Massive Bailout, Video 5/2024
- China mulls government purchases of unsold homes to ease glut, WION, May 2024
- The Plan For China’s Property Crisis May Cost More Than $280 Billion, Forbes, March 1, 2024 ( Communist China's plan to address its property crisis will do tremendous damage to China's economic prospects)
Peter Zeihan on Chinese housing overbuild:
- The Chinese Collapse: A (MASSIVE) Housing Overbuild, 2023 (2007/2008 USA housing crisis was 5% housing overbuild. China's overbuild of housing is 200%. THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG PROBLEM. )
Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back
Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back, Economist, May 16, 2024
China and a potential balance sheet recession
- What must China do to avoid a Japan-type recession? Economist Richard Koo adds up why ‘the Chinese situation is far more serious’, May 2024, South China Morning Post
- China's 'Balance Sheet Recession' Is Like, Unlike Japan’s, Economist Who Coined Term Says, 2024
Anti-China hawks
Pro-China doves
USA is an era of "cold peace"/frenemies era and not yet cold war yet
- No, This Is Not a Cold War—Yet, Why are China hawks exaggerating the threat from Beijing?, Foreign Affairs, 2024
Taiwan
Japan
Japan YouTube channels:
Russia
Russia News
File:A Solzhenitsyn.jpg
"Since then I have spent well nigh 50 years working on the history of our revolution, but if I were asked today to formulate as concisely as possible the main cause of the ruinous revolution that swallowed up some 60 million of our people, I could not put it more accurately than to repeat, men have forgotten God. That's why all this has happened." - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
Church attendance rates in Russia are low, and the level of religiosity in the country has been declining in recent years.[1]
Church attendance rates in Russia are low, and the level of religiosity in the country has been declining in recent years.[1]
- Russia Post
- Center for Strategic & International Studies
- Moscow Times (con) and Moscow Times - YouTube
- The Insider
- The Bell
- Inside Russia (Con)
- Riddle (Con)
- Vlad Vexler (YouTube) - My mission is to guide you through the political challenges we all face in the 21st century. I’m a philosopher. My academic life focuses on the concept of freedom and I'm writing a book about Isaiah Berlin. I'm a British citizen living in London. I was born in Soviet Russia - I left before the collapse of the USSR. I continue to closely analyse Russian politics.
- Kyiv Post and Kyiv Post - YouTube
- Kyiv Independent and Kyiv Independent - YouTube
- Anna from Ukraine
- Stephen Kotin - Putin (Con)
- Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics (YouTube) - Pyotr Kurzin is a British-Russian expat who lives in Washington DC and graduated from Johns Hopkins Univesity.
- Silicon Curtain
- Icarus Project
- Peter Zeihan - Russia (Con)
- Joe Blogs - Russia (Con)
- Stephen Kotkin - Russia (Con) - Stephen Kotkin on Ukraine, Russia, China and the World
- John Mearsheimer - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
- Steve Turley - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
- Dmitry Orlov - YouTube - Dmitry Orlov is reasonable person overall in some ways and intelligent, leans Russia (American engineer and writer raised in Russia until the age of 12. Witnesswed Collapse of Soviet Union)
- The Duran (Pro)
- Lena Petrova
- Dialogue Works - Pro-Russia leaning
- Russia Today (Pro)
- Sputnik International (pro)
- Dialogue Works - Pro-Russia leaning
Blogs:
- Russia Matters - Harvard's Kennedy Center for Science and International Affairs
- The Russia File - Mixed bag
- In Moscow's Shadows
General info on Russia
File:Butter.jpg
I used to be more interested in Russia, but the ButterGate scandal put a damper on that.
Russian President Vladimir Putin says that Russia's war economy is well balanced to supply both guns and butter, but the price of butter itself is now soaring as surging inflation distorts parts of the economy. The price of a block of butter has risen by 25.7 per cent since December, according to the state statistics service.
'The Armageddon with butter is escalating,' Russian economists claim on Telegram.
See: Butter prices soar in Russia amid surging inflation in war economy, CBC News, November 2, 2024 and Russians Resort to Stealing Butter Amid Shortages, Newsweek, October 29, 2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin says that Russia's war economy is well balanced to supply both guns and butter, but the price of butter itself is now soaring as surging inflation distorts parts of the economy. The price of a block of butter has risen by 25.7 per cent since December, according to the state statistics service.
'The Armageddon with butter is escalating,' Russian economists claim on Telegram.
See: Butter prices soar in Russia amid surging inflation in war economy, CBC News, November 2, 2024 and Russians Resort to Stealing Butter Amid Shortages, Newsweek, October 29, 2024
- Russia and Russian economy (Putin's trilemna, Check Russia's economy on 4-19-2027, Put in my electronic calendar). If war in Ukraine ends sooner, then recalibrate when I check on Russia's economy next.
- Russia's leading economic indicators
- Russia crude oil production
- Russia - economy
- Russia fertility rate
- Russia GDP per capita PPP
- Urals oil price
Russia's roads:
"2024: According to most global rankings, Russian roads are considered to be of poor quality, placing them very low in the world ranking, often falling within the bottom half of countries when considering road infrastructure and quality; with reports frequently placing Russia around the 120th position globally." - Russia: A land of potholes and bad roads!
Leading/insightful historians on Russia
Sergey Radchenko: (He leans Western):
Sergey Radchenko- Google News
Articles:
- Why should Putin negotiate? by the historian Sergey Radchenko, October 2024. He might be wrong due to financial pressure on Russia, but this is an unknown. Sergey S. Radchenko is a Soviet-born British-Russian historian. He tries to put himself in Putin's mindset as far as what Putin wants to accomplish, but he is not an economist so that is a shortcoming. Ultimately, authoritarian regimes are opaque as far as decision making and so "mind reading" is of limited value.
- Vladimir Putin does not want a peace deal. He wants to destroy Ukraine., Atlantic Council, December 2024 (Argues Putin does not want a peace deal and that the Istanbul 2022 peace terms of Russia were unreasonable) - Tough to do mind reading of autocratic regimes like Putin. Maybe financial pressures will cause Putin to agree to a peace deal or maybe Trump's more openness to a deal than Biden will cause Putin to be more willing to negotiate.
Stephen Kotkin (He leans Western):
Richard Sakwa: (He leans pro-Russia)
- Richard Sakwa - Wikipedia
Various Scenarios for Russia's future
- The Five Futures of Russia by historian Stephen Kotkin, May/June 2024
- Russia Tomorrow: Five scenarios for Russia’s future, February 2024
- Russia Is Burning Up Its Future, How Putin’s Pursuit of Power Has Hollowed Out the Country and Its People, 2024
- Welcome & Keynote, "Past, Present and Future of Putin's Russia (and What Comes Next)", 2023, Russian Sergei Guriev (Economist)
- Will Russia eventually pay Ukraine reparations?, Deteriorating economic conditions post war in Ukraine causes Russia to wish reapproachment with the West and agree to paying Ukraine reparations
- Putin's offensive capability will be gone 'within a decade' | Peter Zeihan
- Mad Russia is a Long Time Coming
Russia becoming a failed state. Decline of Russia
File:Massive sewage geyser.png
Skyscraper-high sewage plume of feces erupts in Moscow.[2]
- The Inevitable Fall of Putin’s New Russian Empire, Foreign Policy, 2023 (Re-imperialization requirements: Strong economy, strong military and effective government. Russia lacks all three.).
- Will Russia become a failed state within 10 years? Is Russia currently a failed state? Will Russia eventually become a failed state?
- Russia becoming a failed state - Google site
- Decline of Russia - Google site
- Decline of Russia, Blog
- Russia's overseas troubles - so many all at once! Putin's jenga tower is unstable!, December 4, 2024
- Could Russia disintegrate?, GIS reports, 2023 (Argues for slow decay)
- Putin regime will collapse without warning, says freed gulag dissident, Guardian, 2024 (failed war, economic, etc.)
- After the Fall. Must We Prepare for the Breakup of Russia?, Institute Montaigne, 2023
- In Decline, Putin's Russia Is On Its Way to Global Irrelevance, Historian Niall Ferguson on Russia, 2011 (updated 2017)
Quote: "What good is Russia as a partner if it cannot save its oldest client in the Middle East from a ragtag band of militias? Besides the operational setback, it is also a diplomatic and reputational blow.” - Eugene Rumer, director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, Bogged Down in Ukraine, Russia Pays a Price in Syria, NYT, December 8, 2024
Russia's entering stormy, uncharted, economic waters
"According to the Russian Central Bank, over $253 billion in private capital has left the country, and estimates suggest that up to one million highly skilled workers have emigrated, constituting about 10% of Russia's technology workforce and a third of its millionaires, according to the Financial Times." - Russian Economy in 'Stormy Uncharted Waters,' Putin's Banking Chief Says, 2024
Potential stagflation or deep recession for Russia in 2025
"The Bank of Russia’s statements indicate the central bank sees the economy on the cusp of stagflation. Despite sanctions and labor shortages binding output growth, corporations and consumers don’t expect price increases to slow. They also don’t perceive double digit borrowing rates as particularly restrictive. The central bank is right to be worried — we expect inflation to continue running above policymakers’ 4% target, while GDP growth is likely to slow to 1%-1.5% in 2025." — Alex Isakov, Russia economist[6]
- Russia's 'overheating' economy will face a sharp slowdown in 2025 as inflation, labor shortages and sanctions crush momentum, Russia central bank says, 2025. "GDP could fall from as much as 4% to as low as 0.5% in 2025, the report said."
- Russia Flags Slowing Economic Demand as Price Pressures Persist, Bloomberg September 2024. "The Bank of Russia sees early indications that policymakers’ nightmare scenario of high prices coupled with slow economic growth — elements of what is known as stagflation — risks becoming a reality for the country."
- Russia's economy is signaling a fate worse than recession, September, 2024
- Russia expected to see ‘severe recession’ within a year
Russia and sales of natural gas:
- The war in Ukraine has turned Russia’s biggest company, Gazprom (a Russian state-controlled energy firm) into a massive money loser, 2024. If Trump is elected, he will likely end Biden's idiotic regulatory “pause” on development of facilities for exporting liquid natural gas (LNG).
Fertility rate and demographic crisis relative to Russia:
- The Hidden Crisis Destroying Russia From the Inside, video
- Putin’s Existential Problem: Not Enough Russians, WSJ, 2024 (Russia’s population has been in decline for years, and the war in Ukraine has made matters worse)
Alcoholism rising in Russia due to psychological tension related to the war in Ukraine - alcohol consumption is at a 9 year high:
- ‘Psychological tension’ driving alcoholic drink demand in Russia, The Drinks Business, July 2024
- But as supply in Russia has dwindled, demand has shot up. As db reported, the increased demand for alcoholic drinks is partly due to “psychological tension” caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. In 2023, the number of litres of alcohol consumed per person per year in Russia reached a nine-year high to eight litres, and may even be higher than that volume. Currently the per capita sales of absolute alcohol are growing in Russia. This clearly indicates an increase in consumption. This is how the population responds to difficulties,” said Evgeny Andreev, a leading researcher at the Centre for Demographic Research of the Russian Economic School (NES).[7].
Tremendous cost of wounded and PTSD/alcoholic veterans post war in Ukraine: Wounded Veterans, Wounded Economy: The Personnel Costs of Russia’s War
Will Russian assets be seized?
- Seize Russian assets - Google search
- Interview: 'I Don't See How This Cannot Happen,' Bill Browder Says Of Seizing Russian Assets, Radio Free Europe, 2/2024
- Momentum Builds in Efforts to Seize Russian Assets for Ukraine, Voice of America, 2/2024
- Bill Browder
The limits of the Russian military:
- The Limits of Russia's War Machine, Peter Zeihan, 2024
File:512px-Changing the guards kremlin.jpeg
Goose stepping changing of the guards in Russia at the Kremlin in 2006.[2]
Russia economy and commentary by economists and financial people
Sergei Guriev (Economist):
- Sergei Guriev Russia - Google search
- Sergei Guriev Russia - YouTube
Articles by Sergei Guriev:
- Q&A with Sergei Guriev: ‘The optimistic scenario is the departure of Vladimir Putin in whatever way’, 2024
Videos by Sergei Guriev:
- Sergei Guriev & Oleg Itskhoki: Russian Economy 2 1/2 Years Into the War Against Ukraine
- Welcome & Keynote, "Past, Present and Future of Putin's Russia (and What Comes Next)"
Books by Sergei Guriev:
Sergey Aleksashenko:
Sergey Aleksashenko is a Russian economist and former government official. He was the deputy finance minister and first deputy chairman of the board of the Central Bank of Russia from 1995 to 1998.[8]
Vladislav Inozemtsev:
Vladislav Leonidovich Inozemtsev is a Russian academician who is the director of the Moscow-based Centre for Research on Post-Industrial Societies, a nonprofit think tank. He is a professor and the chair at the Department of World Economy, Faculty of Public Governance, Moscow State Lomonosov University.[9]
- The odds of Russia's economy collapsing are 'extremely small' and the war can go on for the long, Vladislav Inozemstev, 2024
- Vladislav Inozemtsev - Google news
Alexandra Prokopenko:
Alexandra Prokopenko (Expert on Russian economic and monetary policy and the decision-making. From 2017 until early 2022 Alexandra worked at the Central Bank of Russia and at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow. She is a former columnist for Vedomosti. She is a graduate of Moscow State University and holds an MA in Sociology from the University of Manchester:
Key articles by Alexandra Prokopenko:
- Russia’s new budget is a blueprint for war, despite the cost, Financial Times, 2024
- Russia's economy faces an 'unsolvable trilemma' but can survive for several more years, think tank expert says, Business Insider, 2024. "Defense and national security spending will account for 8% of GDP and 40% of all federal expenditures, Prokopeko said — the highest level since the Soviet Union's collapse. In boosting spending to such heights, Russian President Vladimir Putin is effectively dismissing brewing economic imbalances as other parts of the budget become squeezed. This shift toward a military-oriented economy could last up to eight years, she pred, but will come back to bite Russia down the road."
Anders Aslund:
- Anders Aslund, Swedish economist - Google News
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld
- Jeffrey Sonnenfeld - Google News - Yale Researcher
- Jeffrey Sonnenfeld - YouTube, YouTube
Russian war machine and its sensitivity to oil prices:
It is argued that only a slump in oil prices will stop Russia's war efforts (See: Only an oil slump can stop Vladimir Putin, Reuters, 2024).
- Saudi Arabia has a big plan for oil that could hammer Russia’s war machine, economists warn, Fortune magazine, October 14, 2024
Russian oil: Lower production and lower profits:
- Donald Trump’s Presidency Will Likely Boost U.S. Oil Output In 2025, Fortune, November 6, 2024
- Russia’s Oil Revenues Plunged 29% in October as Crude Prices Fell, Oilprice.com
- Oil Prices Fall as Trump Inches Toward Victory, Oilprice.com)
- The Golden Age of Russian Oil Nears an End
- The Future of Russian Oil Production in the Short, Medium, and Long Term, Abstract
- How Stable Is the Russian Oil Industry? - Video
- Russian Oil's Vanishing Act - video
- Analysts Predict 42% Decline In Russian Oil Production By 2035
- Crumbling Infrastructure in the Russian Taiga - video
- A long-term outlook on Russian oil industry facing internal and external challenges
Economic problems:
Russian culture overview
International relations:
- Why Russia sees itself as much more than just a nation
- Prof. Kotkin: "Russia: Back to the USSR or Back to the Tsarist Empire?"
- To Run the World: The Kremlin's Cold War Bid for Global Power by Sergey Radchenko
Culture:
- Russian culture, traditions and art: Russian Culture: Facts, Customs & Traditions and Russian Culture, Traditions, Arts - Britannica and culture of Russia and Russian culture - Core Concepts and Russian Cultural Overview and Russian Culture and A guide to: Russian Traditions, Culture, Customs & Etiquette
- 5 Characteristics of Russian Culture I Have Learned from My Host Family While Teaching English
- Contemporary Russia before the war in Ukraine and Russian history - video playlist
Other cultural overview:
- The Black Legend of Russian History - The Burning Archive Podcast Remixed
- A brief history of Russia with Sergei Guriev
- Russia, a society without citizens by Vladislav Inozemtsev, Monde Diplomatique, 2010
- Why Russia is so poor and weak, video
- Why Is Russia Not Rich?, 2024, video, History Scope
- The History Behind Russia's Expansionary Foreign Policy with Stephen Kotkin | Policy Stories
- Plenary 1: Russia, Civilization, and Western Liberalism
- Unwrapping The Enigma, Mystery And Riddle: Stephen Kotkin Explains Russia To Andrew Roberts
- Are Russians really longsuffering? Russia is more prone to revolution and revolutionary change than places like the United States, United Kingdom or many other modern democratic counties, History Network
- Russia’s Ukraine Resurgence Shows It’s Often Down but Never Out by Hal Brands, 2024
- Vlad Vexler
- A LOOK AT RUSSIAN CIVILIZATION: POWER, TRUTH, TRUST, AND WAR
- The Russian Psyche | Konstantin Kisin
- U.S–Russia Relations, with Stephen Kotkin, August 2022
- The Psychology of an Isolated Russia - Stephen Kotkin
- Isaiah Berlin Memorial Lecture 2018: Stephen Kotkin - Sir Isaiah Berlin was a Russian-British social and political theorist, philosopher, and historian of ideas
- 5 More Questions For Stephen Kotkin: Ukraine Edition
- What is Eurasia? - Stephen Kotkin
- Russia and the West: A Historical Perspective.
- Political abuse of psychiatry in Russia
- Russian television excerpts - Russian imperialism
- 'The borders of Russia do not end' says Putin at awards ceremony - November 24, 2016 (Russian Geographic Society in Moscow)
Religiosity percentages of Russians:
Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future and The true impact of a year of war on Russia's economy
Russia and fertility rate and demographics:
- The Hidden Crisis Destroying Russia From the Inside, Video
- Demographics of the Orthodox Christain world by Peter Zeihan
- Russia's Demographic Crisis Explained - TLDR News
- Updates on Russian Demographics
- (Russia is DONE) Russia's Catastrophic Demographics Collapse is Here.
Contemporary Russia:
- Russia is burning up its future, Foreign Affairs 2024 (archive) - War in Ukraine is hiring Russia's long term future
Putin:
- Drunk president who created Vladimir Putin - The story of Boris Yeltsin and Best of drunk Boris Yeltsin!
- Vladimir Putin - history and analysis - Google sites
- What Everyone Needs to Know about Russia Under Putin - FPRI's 2018 Champagne Brunch for Partners (Russia is a paradox of strengths and weaknesses)
- Why China's sinking economy could backfire on Vladimir Putin , Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 2024
- The Complete History Of Vladimir Putin's Rise To Power - video
- Vladimir Putin: Life of a Modern Warlord - video
- It’s Time to Discuss Putin Derangement Syndrome (PDS) Type I and Type II
- Andrei Kolesnikov: Putin’s Fragile Compact With the Russian People | Foreign Affairs Interview, 2024
- Putin the planner and Putin: We Must Understand What Makes him tick - Andrei Illarionov, formerly a Senior Policy Adviser during Putin's early period as President]
- Lynch on Lourie, 'Putin: His Downfall and Russia's Coming Crash'
- The Putin Paradox: The Missed Opportunity of 1989 & Beyond | Feb. 12, 2020, video (Russia scholar Richard Sakwa was featured on The Duran on March, 11, 2024).[10]
- Putin Debate | Richard Sakwa | Oxford Union, video, 2020 (Talks about stagnation in Russia)
- President Putin asks outgoing government to remain at work - Richard Sakwa, 2020
- Putin Debate | Richard Sakwa | Oxford Union, 2014 (Achievements and downsides of Putin)
- 8 over-the-top, macho Putin stunts that were nowhere near as impressive as they seemed, Business Insider, 2019
- Putin dismissed US warnings about a potential terror incident as 'blackmail' just 3 days before Moscow concert hall attack
- Putin fell down stairs, soiled himself as speculation over worsening health grows: report.[11][12][13][14]
- Another Russian mercenary leader has turned against Putin, 2024, The Hill
Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?
- Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?
- Vladimir Putin hiding lover Alina Kabaeva and their kids in Switzerland, 2022
- PUTIN & HIS LOVERS: RUSSIAN PARADOX, 2024
Maps of Russia:
- Political map of Russia, or Russian Federation divided by types of federal subjects - republics, krays, oblasts, cities of federal significance, autonomous oblasts and autonomous okrugs. Simple flat vector map with labels - Unknown year
- Political map of Russia - Unknown year
- Russia map - Physical/geographical - Unknown year
Ukraine:
- Ukraine - Google sites
- Kim Iversen: Former NATO Analyst & Top UN Official Says THIS Is The REAL Reason For War In Ukraine
- The Chris Hedges Report: The truth about Ukraine with Medea Benjamin - History of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia (And U.S. involvement)
- Why it’s wrong to assume American evangelicals are siding with Russia over Ukraine
Russians destroying churches and engaging in religious discrimination in Ukraine:
- Report: 500 Ukrainian Churches and Religious Sites Damaged by Russian Military, Christianity Today, 2023
- Russia’s War Against Evangelicals, Time, 2024
Russia's fertility rate and demographic crisis
- A Russia without Russians? Putin’s disastrous demographics, August 2024
- Russia's fertility rate is "catastrophically low", bne IntelliNews, July 29, 2024
- Russia is Running Out of People, 2024
- Can Putin’s Russia Have More Children, Boost Growth and Reduce Poverty All at Once?, Russia Post, 2024
"So far, Moscow has demonstrated long-term adeptness in its policies toward immigrants, relaxing regulations when they were most needed. For instance, it admitted more immigrants after the pandemic and during the war, gradually simplified the rules for granting citizenship, and compensated for the natural population decline through naturalisation. This flexible approach, regardless of the current social climate in the country, is likely to continue. Although this will not reverse the negative trends, it will significantly mitigate them to prevent a demographic collapse. However, Russia’s plans could be thwarted by a severe economic downturn, which would discourage immigrants from Central Asia and the Caucasus from choosing Russia as a destination for economic migration."[15]
"An increase in beatings, vandalism and episodes of racism against Central Asian migrants has been reported in Russia since the deadly attacks at Moscow's Crocus City Hall last Friday."[16]
Russian diaspora
"A large Russian diaspora (sometimes including Russian-speaking non-Russians), estimated at 25 million people, has developed all over the world, with notable numbers in the United States, Germany, Brazil, and Canada."[17] See also: Russian diaspora
Post Ukraine invasion Russian diaspora:
Russia is experiencing a large brain drain:
- Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's, Business Insider, 2024 (Makes a 2026 forecast)
- Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's, Business Insider, September 2023
- Russia's economy faces a 'massive brain drain' as over 1 million young workers exit labor force, Markets Insider, 2023
- The Great Russian Brain Drain, Novaya Gazeta Europe, 2023
- As Russia sees tech brain drain, other nations hope to gain, Associated Press, 2022
Will Jews Continue To Flee Russia in Large Numbers?
- Will Jews Continue To Flee Russia in Large Numbers?, 2023 (43,000 Jews fled Russia since the war in Ukraine)
Many high-income people are fleeing Russia:
- Russia is ‘hemorrhaging’ millionaires, June 2022
File:The places that millionaires are leaving 2022 to 2023.png
The places that millionares are leaving in 2023-2024. Russian is 4rth on the list.
American views of Putin and Russia:
"Americans overwhelmingly rate Putin negatively: 88% say they do not have confidence in the Russian president to do the right thing regarding world affairs, with two-thirds saying they have no confidence in him at all. A similar share lacked confidence in him in 2023 (90%)." - Pew Research, May 8, 2024[18]
"As Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, Americans remain very negative toward Russia: 91% have an unfavorable view of the country, including 62% who say their views are very unfavorable. Just 7% in the U.S. have a favorable view of Russia. This is a similar level of negativity compared with last year’s survey, when 92% of Americans were negative toward Russia." - Pew Research, Pew Research, May 10, 2023[19]
Post Western World notion
Decline of nations:
Map of world by population size
Peter Zeihan's view
- Peter Zeihan is an American geopolitical analyst and author.
- Predicting the Future with Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan
The historian Stephen Kotkin on 5 scenarios for Russia's future
- Stephen Kotkin: Russia’s Murky Future | Foreign Affairs Interview, 5-2-2024
- The Five Futures of Russia by the historian Steven Kotkin
Will Russia ever have good relations with Europe again? If so, will it happen relatively/somewhat soon or ever?
- The Five Futures of Russia by the historian Steven Kotkin
Con view
- Does the Bible say anything about Russia in relation to the end times?, Gotquestions.org
- West must rebuild relations with Russia from scratch – Kremlin, Russia Today, 2024
Cultures tend to change slow.
The website Cultural Front notes: Template:Cquote
Pro-view
BRICS
2024:
BRICS are not agreeing on a common currency so it's not much of an international trade organization.
BRICS is a China lead/dominated organization subsidized by China. China accounts for about 52% to 70% of the BRICS group's total GDP. If China keeps having economic problems, BRICS probably doesn't have much a future.
With the addition of new members in BRICS+, the group of emerging powers will be more globally representative — but also face more internal divisions.[20] For example, "In a major setback to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Brazil has decided against joining Beijing’s multi-billion-dollar initiative becoming the second country after India in the BRICS bloc not to endorse the mega project."[21]
China and India's historical disagreements regarding membership expansion will shape the prospects of aspiring BRICS countries and the organization's future.
2019 source: "China is playing the leading role in this process, as a main investor and importer of FDI (foreign direct investment) and trade partner in BRICS group... Trade and investment cooperation of China with other BRICS countries exerts very strong impact on the development of their economies. China continue to deepen its economic ties with other BRICS countries and open up its financial market to serve as a cushion against rising global uncertainty. Development of Intra-BRICS trade and investment cooperation is very important in the context of trade war imposed by the USA against China." But China is having economic weakness in 2024.[22]
Better demographics and a country being a stronger power
- Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics
- With Great Demographics Comes Great Power, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2019
- Demography, geopolitics and great power: A lesson from the past, Aim Press, 2023
- The Geopolitical Importance of Demographic Power, 2018
USA and demographics and it being favorable to other major powers
- The United States Has a Keen Demographic Edge, May 13, 2024
- Demographics in the US are a source of power, Polytechnique Insights, Paris
Countries by population
World economics and trends
Global weekly economic update
- Global weekly economic update, Deloitte
GNP by country
Per capita:
- List of countries by GNI (PPP) per capita
- List of countries by GNI (nominal) per capita List of countries by GNI (nominal) per capita
Total GNP:
- Gross national income
- GNP by country, Macrotrends
- GNP by country, Worldpopulationreview.com
2023
- Visualizing the $105 Trillion World Economy in One Chart, August 2023
- Ranked: The World’s 25 Richest Countries by GDP per Capita, 2023
2024: Stephen Kotkin on international relations and geopolitics
- Stephen Kotkin on Lost in Translation: World Order & Word Order | HISPBC Ch.1, 2024
- Stephen Kotkin on Principles & Pragmatism: Walking the Geopolitical Tightrope | HISPBC Ch.2, 2024
World News
World news Western perspective:
- World News - Christian website
- World news - United Press International
- World News - Reuters
- Wall Street Journal
- World news - Associated Press
World News - NonWestern perspective:
- Times of India - World news
- Hindustan Times - World news
- Wion News - World
- Russia Today - World news
- Hindustan Times - YouTube
- WION news
- Business basics - Mixed bag of quality, geopolitics
Non-Western international politics YouTube channels perspective:
- The Duran
- Dialogue Works - Pro-Russia leaning
- The Caspian Report, Azerbaijan based, Mixed bag in terms of quality
World news. Data-driven UK YouTube video channel:
Israel
Times of Israel:
CBN News:
- CBN News - Israel, YouTube
General:
- Here’s THE TRUTH About the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (A Comprehensive History) by Ben Shapiro
- Why Evangelical Christians Love Israel | VICE on HBO
- JNS (BTW, JNS is also critical on ADL's Greenblatt woke stuff), INN, and at times center leaning I24, or left leaning - Ynet or TOI. ILH is center leaning. Note. JPost is usually center leaning when it states it's by "Jerusalem Post Staff," but it often posts pure Reuters stuff.
Israel and prophecy/Bible/miracles
Modern Israel fulfills biblical prophecy:
Prophecies about the land of Israel fulfilled in our lifetime: Is Modern Israel Fulfilling Prophecy? and Is the modern state of Israel the fullfillment of prophecy and Unveiling the mysteries of Israel: Four biblical prophecies being fulfilled right now.
Miracles
Six Day War
- GOD'S HAND IN THE SIX DAY WAR
- Six Days of Miracles
- Did God Help Israel During The Six Day War?
- Fmr Israeli Commander: God Protected us in Battle
USA foreign policy: Interventionalism vs. Isolationism
Trends:
Pointless and costly wars such as the Iraq War and War in Afghanistan are very expensive. The renowned military strategist and general Sun Tzu wrote: "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." Among the USA public, a less interventionalist and more isolationist sentiment is growing - particularly among young people (See: Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?). Of course, anything taken to an extreme can be a bad thing. The United States should stay engaged in the world - especially when it comes to the use of skillful diplomacy. At the same time, sometimes wars are unavoidable, but when a nation engages in a war, it should be a just war (See: Just War Theory).
Also, as the USA does more and more onshoring of its companies, there will be less and less of an incentive to be the world's policeman on the high seas (See: Deglobalization: The US Navy's Withdrawl as Global Protector).
NATO
As of 2024, the USA pays 16% of NATO's total budget.[23]
- NATO - Google sites
- Why NATO may have to stop a Russian invasion - without the US, Daily Mail, 2023
Expansion of NATO
Did the USA promise not to expand in 1990? No, it did not view:
- Did the NATO Really Promise Not to Expand Eastward?, Bitter Winter
- Stephen Kotkin on Russia’s argument to NATO expansion - anti-Russian/Putin argument on NATO expansion
- "But it was Vladimir Putin himself who signed the Rome Declaration on 28 May 2002. The same piece of paper I signed, which enshrined the basic principles of territorial integrity and non-interference in other countries. He signed that. He can't blame anybody else."[24]
Historian Mary E. Sarotte on the issue of whether the West promised no NATO expansion:
- Historian Mary E. Sarotte argues that there was no promised for NATO not to expand eastward
- Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate, Hoover Institution
- Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate, Washington History Seminar
- MARY ELISE SAROTTE - Not One Inch: Nato's Eastward Expansion
- Lecture of Mary Sarotte «Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate
- Mary Sarotte, "Not One Inch"
- Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate by Mary E. Sarotte. Yale University Press; First Edition (November 30, 2021)
Did the USA promise not to expand in 1990? Middle of the road view:
- Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and the U.S. Offer to Limit NATO Expansion , MIT
- Did NATO promise Russia never to expand to the east? | DW News, claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO
Did the USA promise not to expand in 1990? Yes, it did view
- Stephen F. Cohen: NATO expansion and Russia, claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO
- Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer - Anti-NATO expansion
NATO's soft underbellys
China and Christianity
What would a post-communist China look like?
World map
World map by population
- World map by population, 2018
Major power politics in the 21st century for the foreseeable future
John Mearsheimer's view
- The 2022 Holberg Debate w/ John Mearsheimer and Carl Bildt: Ukraine, Russia, China and the West
- John Mearsheimer: The West is playing Russian roulette
- Russians and NATO both feel that they cannot lose - War could drag on at a lower level for years and this is a dangerous situation.
Mearsheimer on US defense establishment likely to learn from the war in Ukraine
- Does the US still have the Capacity for Global Dominance? | Prof. John Mearsheimer, 2024, Ukraine, Taiwan and The True Cause of War | John Mearsheimer, 2024. Mearsheimer says the war in Ukraine revealed shortcomings of US Defense policies. Mearsheimer believes USA will fix its industrial capacity problems and upgrade its drone capabilities so it can better fight a potential war with China. Mearsheimer says that the USA's unpreparedness is a vestigage of the former unipolar world and that major power politics has returned. US populace embracing isolationism more in terms of young people, etc., but Mearsheimer argues that Washington/military industrial complex ignores what public wants.
Mearsheimer argues that liberalism pulls a society apart due to disagreement on first principles and that is why it preaches tolerance, but nationalism is a glue that helps hold a society together.[25]. Mearsheimer says liberals don't like realist school of politics because it goes against the grain of idealism and they like to pretend that liberal democracies never engage in realpolitik type behavior.[26]
Background info that Mearsheimer doesn't discuss: China is in economic decline, but it might attack Taiwan to distract from domestic economic problems. But such a war would hurt it economically since it is a trading nation and the Chinese appear to know that. Chinese threats of attacking Taiwan may be political kabuki theatre for its domestic population to distract from its interal problems.
Limitations/problems of Mearsheimer's view
- Why John Mearsheimer is wrong about realism, great power politics and history, The Burning Archive
- Here’s Where Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer Disagree
Peter Zeihan's view
Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio
- Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio -2022 (Ray Dahlio has some good ideas, but he is inconsistent when it comes to China[27])
Changing civilizational world order
- Why the post-1989 global system is facing collapse
- Civilizational World Order w/Dr. Steve Turley - Listen to this
Anti-American axis (China/Russia/Iran/North Korea
Globalization of trade
- Globalization of Trade Isn’t Going Anywhere. World trade in goods may have plateaued but did so at historically high levels, Meanwhile, other indicia of globalization—trade in services, digital trade, cross‐border investment and migration, and cultural exchange—continue to increase. CATO, 2023
Books
- Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies by Jared Diamond Ph.D.
Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda
Imperialism, interventionism and isolationism
- Imperialism, interventionism and isolationism - Google sites
Military
Top 10 militaries by strength
Rankings of the world's top militaries:
Articles may not take into account alliances such as NATO, Aukus, etc. NATO has a provision that an attack on one country is an attack on all of the countries. See: NATO articles and videos
The U.S.-Japan Alliance (日米同盟, Nichi-Bei Dōmei) is a military alliance between Japan and the United States of America, as codified in the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, which was first signed in 1951, took effect in 1952, and was amended in 1960.[28]
Articles and resources:
- Top 10 most powerful countries in the world by military strength in 2024, Indian Express, 2024[29] (The USA, UK, Turkey and Italy are members of NATO).
Military, wars, mass murder and expense
File:WWII collage.JPG
WWII photo montage
"The level of war in the world seems to have risen to 1989 (post-WWII) peak levels and holding, ending the pacific 1989-2006 era. Does this contradict the Decline of Violence (Pinker) / End of History (Fukuyama) theses, or is it just a blip?". - Professor Eric Kaufmann, Twitter/X.[30], See: War and Peace.
War, debt and the collapse of empires
- Comparing how empires fall, Khan Academy
- Empires Fall, Khan Academy
How long do wars last?
Wars start out as wars of maneuver. If a war a war of maneuver doesn't achieve victory in 6 months, then it most cases it turns into a war of attrition (Wars of attrition are more common than insurgencies after a war).[31]
Wars are ended by removing an enemies will to fight and/or ability to fight (Productive capacity)[32]
- "Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." - Sun Tzu
- "What is essential in war is victory, not prolonged operations." - Sun Tzu
- "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." - Sun Tzu
How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics:
Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies article How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine Template:Cquote
File:Georgetown 2.jpg
Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[3]
Just war vs. realist view of war
- War and International Politics , John Mearsheimer (He discusses realist view of war vs. Just War doctrine of war)
Winning the peace vs. winning a war
- Stephen Kotkin: Winning the peace vs. winning a war - short version
Military
- US Army fails to meet annual recruitment target, again
- US Military's Biggest Recruiting Crisis Is Here
Wars and warlike natures
Studies:
Mass murder
Right-wing death squads vs. Left-wing murderous regimes
Military concepts
- Sun Tzu
- Sun Tzu quotes
- Political warfare
- Fifth-generation warfare
- Asymmetric warfare
- Irregular warfare
- Lawfare
- Carl von Clausewitz
- Antoine-Henri Jomini
- List of military strategies and concepts
- Fourth generation warfare
Military competence and incompetence
- Task and purpose (Chris Cappy is a former US Army infantryman and Iraq Veteran. I cover geopolitics, history, weapon systems and all things military related — I do this from a veteran's perspective.).
Military competence
- Deliberate Discomfort: How U.S. Special Operations Forces Overcome Fear and Dare to Win by Getting Comfortable Being Uncomfortable by Jason B.A. Van Camp and Andy Symonds. Ballast Books (February 18, 2020)
Military incompetence
- On the Psychology of Military Incompetence by Norman F Dixon. Basic Books; Illustrated edition (May 31, 2016)
- Military Incompetence: Why the American Military Doesn't Win (American Century) by Richard A. Gabriel. Hill & Wang Pub; First Edition (January 1, 1985)
Are we headed towards WW3? It's not likely - at least not yet
- Are We Heading For World War III? Texas A&M Experts Say It’s Unlikely: "While recent wars have sparked speculation about an ensuing global conflict, military scholars say comparisons to past world wars are largely overblown."
- Are we heading for World War Three? Experts give their verdicts
- We are not headed towards WW3 - at least not yet
- "If I remember correctly, the last anxiety about world war in international public opinion appeared during the Cold War in the 1960s and 1970s... It is both thought-provoking and alarming that talk of world war has become heated and part of official discourse once again after half a century. Looking around, however, it seems that no one is really making plans to start a such a war."[33]
Victories in war are not necessarily won by winning battles. Wars can be won by eliminating the enemies will to fight which is a critical factor in winning wars
File:Sun Tzu portrait.jpg
"Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."- Sun Tzu
In the Vietnam War, the Vietnamese consistently lost the bigger battles and the U.S. General Westmoreland was obsessed about body counts that showed the USA was "winning". However, although the Tet Offensive was not ultimately not a successful operation militarily, it did win on the propaganda front because it showed the American public that the Vietcong were not on their last legs. Specifically, the Tiet Offensive showed that the Vietmanese still had power to oppose the USA via a large operation and as a result of this the American public soured on the war. One does not win wars solely by winning battles. Breaking the will of the enemy is a key component as far as how wars are won (And wars are generally governed by politics[34]). Near the end of the Vietnam War at the peace negotiations, the American officer Harry Summers said to a Vietcong colonel that the USA won on the battlefield and the Vietcong did not. The Vietcong colonel replied back, that's true, but it is also irrelevant.[35] It was the political context that was more important in the Vietnam War than the military context. But ultimately the the USA won the peace in Vietnam as evidenced by all the Coca Cola now being sold in Vietnam and the current cordial relations between the USA and Vietnam.
One of the things the Russians may face in Ukraine if they win a pyrrhic victory is a Ukrainian insurgency that wears down the Russians. Most insurgencies are not successful and last about 10 years.[36][37] However, The Troubles insurgency in Northern Ireland lasted about 30 years and perhaps the same could happen in Ukraine due to the bitterness of the conflict and due to the intensity of Ukrainian nationalism. This may come into play because of two factors: First, Russia defector reveals 'majority' of people inside Kremlin unhappy with war in Ukraine, ABC News video, July 2023. This shows that some of the will to fight in the Kremlin may have been diminished (But Putin likely calls the shots so this issue is not a definitive point). Secondly, as far as the Kursk invasion, the inability of the Russian state to protect its borders shows this: Russia has failed as a state, Modern Diplomacy, 2023 and Almost half of global strategists think Russia could become a failed state within the next 10 years, Fortune magazine, January 23, 2023 and Will Russia become a failed state within 10 years? Is Russia currently a failed state? Will Russia eventually become a failed state?
"Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." - Sun Tzu
Sanctions have a poor record in effectiveness with unintended consequences
- DO SANCTIONS ACTUALLY WORK? EXPERTS EVALUATE THE EFFICACY OF THIS WIDELY USED FOREIGN POLICY TOOL (“What we found is that it works in ways that we don’t want it to work. And it doesn’t work in the ways that we want it to work,” said Middle East expert Vali Nasr, one of the book’s authors.)
International agreements
International agreements often fail to achieve their intended results
While international agreements certainly have their place and peace/peacemaking are always a good thing to pursue, research indicates that most international agreements fail to achieve their aims (International treaties have mostly failed to produce their intended effects, PNAS, August 1, 2022, 119 (32) e2122854119 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2122854119). Given men's frequent cases of poor thinking/planning and the sinfulness of human nature, this is not entirely surprising.
Also, as far as the Russian/Ukrainian peace negotiations, agreements are only as good as the trustworthiness of the people signing them. And unfortunately, Russia/Putin/Biden Administration are all corrupt and shown HERE as can be seen in points #1, #2 and #3.
And when I look at the Minsk Agreements, former agreements and promises mentioned below, I see Russia/Ukraine/West breaking agreements/promises. Also, as far as the Minsk Agreements, as can be seen below, Russia appears to be the biggest violaters of the Minsk Agreements, with Ukraine breaking the agreements also.
Russia, West, Ukraine and the West all acting badly in terms of Minsk Agreements, agreements and promises:
Russia acting badly:
TUESDAY, JUNE 7, 2016, U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations: "Russia has acted contrary to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, and the Incidents at Sea Agreement. Russia has altered the human rights landscape within its own country, decreasing democracy and begging questions about the future of governance, not just in Moscow, but across the Federation. Moreover, Russia has joined the civil war in Syria and begun militarizing the Arctic."[4]
West and Ukraine acting badly:
- Merkel admits that West were not sincere about Minsk Agreements, Yahoo News, 2022
- The West has broken its promises to developing countries – and we’re all paying the price, The Guardian, 2023
World politics, peak oil consumption, technology, forecasts, China and Russia
China, economic decline, green energy adoption and oil consumption:
- China is Russia's biggest customer of oil. China’s oil demand dips, ticks down as economic ebb eases fuel imports, August 2024. China has reduced its oil imports in recent months, as lower economic activity and green energy adoption have depressed demand.
USA's oil production:
- Why U.S. Oil Production Is 6.5% Ahead Of Last Year’s Record Pace, September 2024. Ongoing growth in U.S. oil output remains a key driver of the global energy market. U.S. crude oil production will almost certainly set a second consecutive record this year, reflecting strong demand and advances in extraction technologies, particularly in shale oil. If Trump is elected, USA oil production may further improve.
Saudi oil production:
- Blow to Putin's War Machine As Saudi Arabia Ramps Up Oil Production, September 2024 (If Trump is elected, US-Saudi relations may improve)
Nuclear power growing due to technological advances:
- Nuclear power expansion fuelled by small modular reactors, says IAEA', Nuclear energy capacity is now expected to increase 2.5 times by 2050 compared to current levels.
Short-term oil price forecast:
Forecast of world oil consumption:
- Charted: What Powered the World in 2023, Visual Capitalist
- Global energy sources by type over time, Graph/pie chart
Exxon Mobil forecast:
OPEC Forecasts:
- Russia Expects Strong Global Oil Demand Growth Through to 2050, OilPrice.com, September 2024
Notes
Template:Reflist
Cite error: <ref> tags exist, but no <references/> tag was found
