Difference between revisions of "User:Achoicenotanecho/IR"

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[[User:Conservative/Politics|Politics]]
  
 
== International relations and geopolitics YouTube channels, websites and podcasts ==
 
== International relations and geopolitics YouTube channels, websites and podcasts ==
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*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin Stephen Kotkin] - YouTube search
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin Stephen Kotkin] - YouTube search
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*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Odt-z_-1cA STEPHEN KOTKIN - THE WORLD IN PIECES], September 2024
  
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCusFCg-z_0 Stephen Kotkin: Turning Points: Yesterday’s World, and Tomorrow’s]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCusFCg-z_0 Stephen Kotkin: Turning Points: Yesterday’s World, and Tomorrow’s]
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*[https://www.osw.waw.pl/en The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)] - website (Based in Warsaw)
 
*[https://www.osw.waw.pl/en The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)] - website (Based in Warsaw)
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/@centreforeasternstudies/videos Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) - YouTube], YouTube (Based in Warsaw)
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/@centreforeasternstudies/videos Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) - YouTube], YouTube (Based in Warsaw)
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=== Search Party ===
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*[https://www.youtube.com/@Search-Party/videos Search Party] - More documentary/entertainment
  
 
=== World Politics Review ===
 
=== World Politics Review ===
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=== USA ===
 
=== USA ===
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[[File:Bigger, better, stronger.jpg|thumbnail|right|500px|“Sadly the American dream is dead, but if I get elected president I will bring it back. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAxQVx9X-DE&list=PL65HKFevUNqLs-0AXYmDHdyg9-QtnfnhC&index=1 Bigger, better and stronger] than ever before.” - [[Donald Trump]]
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<br />
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<br />
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See: [[Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future|The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future]] ]]
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[[File:Trump dancing.png|right|500px|thumb|"Surrounded by serious and talented people like J.D. Vance, his running mate, RFK Jr., who abandoned his own campaign to support Trump, former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, Vivek Ramaswamy, Elon Musk and other business leaders, Donald Trump’s campaign will be like Patton’s Third Army racing across France in 1944." - Roger Kimball, [https://thespectator.com/politics/kamala-harris-will-lose-2024-prediction/ ''Why Kamala Harris will lose'''], ''The Spectator'', October 21, 2024 ]]
  
 
Economy:
 
Economy:
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*[https://www.google.com/search?q=us+long+term++economic+outlook&sca_esv=619c697d276fe56b&biw=1920&bih=927&sxsrf=ACQVn0-hC0DrbvZ6HYGcwYV0qbKdSFGz2A%3A1713995628190&ei=bH8pZsCXC9arptQPwaOoqAc&ved=0ahUKEwjA_cGk69uFAxXWlYkEHcERCnUQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=us+long+term++economic+outlook&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiHnVzIGxvbmcgdGVybSAgZWNvbm9taWMgb3V0bG9vazIFEAAYgAQyBhAAGBYYHjILEAAYgAQYhgMYigUyCxAAGIAEGIYDGIoFMgsQABiABBiGAxiKBTIIEAAYgAQYogRIgz5QnwxY-StwAXgBkAEAmAGkAaABrQWqAQMwLjW4AQPIAQD4AQH4AQKYAgagAu0FwgIKEAAYsAMY1gQYR8ICBhAAGAcYHsICCBAAGAcYCBgewgIIEAAYBRgHGB7CAgYQABgIGB7CAgcQABiABBgNmAMAiAYBkAYIkgcDMS41oAfeHg&sclient=gws-wiz-serp US long term economic outlook - Google Search]
 
*[https://www.google.com/search?q=us+long+term++economic+outlook&sca_esv=619c697d276fe56b&biw=1920&bih=927&sxsrf=ACQVn0-hC0DrbvZ6HYGcwYV0qbKdSFGz2A%3A1713995628190&ei=bH8pZsCXC9arptQPwaOoqAc&ved=0ahUKEwjA_cGk69uFAxXWlYkEHcERCnUQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=us+long+term++economic+outlook&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiHnVzIGxvbmcgdGVybSAgZWNvbm9taWMgb3V0bG9vazIFEAAYgAQyBhAAGBYYHjILEAAYgAQYhgMYigUyCxAAGIAEGIYDGIoFMgsQABiABBiGAxiKBTIIEAAYgAQYogRIgz5QnwxY-StwAXgBkAEAmAGkAaABrQWqAQMwLjW4AQPIAQD4AQH4AQKYAgagAu0FwgIKEAAYsAMY1gQYR8ICBhAAGAcYHsICCBAAGAcYCBgewgIIEAAYBRgHGB7CAgYQABgIGB7CAgcQABiABBgNmAMAiAYBkAYIkgcDMS41oAfeHg&sclient=gws-wiz-serp US long term economic outlook - Google Search]
  
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USA 2030s economic depression:
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USA oil production:
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"The US is the largest oil-producing country in the world, with output of 21.91 million barrels per day in 2023, taking the spot for the sixth year in a row."[https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/energy-investing/oil-and-gas-investing/top-oil-producing-countries/]
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USA 2030s economic depression forecast:
  
 
*[https://itreconomics.com/2030s-great-depression/ 2030s Great Depression] (If the USA sees a [[Great Depression]] in the 2030s, it will likely affect the whole world. USA 26% of the global economy in 2023 in nominal terms, and about 15.5% in PPP terms.[https://www.statista.com/statistics/270267/united-states-share-of-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/#:~:text=United%20States%20share%20of%20global%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP)%202028&text=In%202022%2C%20the%20United%20States,seventh%20of%20the%20global%20total.])
 
*[https://itreconomics.com/2030s-great-depression/ 2030s Great Depression] (If the USA sees a [[Great Depression]] in the 2030s, it will likely affect the whole world. USA 26% of the global economy in 2023 in nominal terms, and about 15.5% in PPP terms.[https://www.statista.com/statistics/270267/united-states-share-of-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/#:~:text=United%20States%20share%20of%20global%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP)%202028&text=In%202022%2C%20the%20United%20States,seventh%20of%20the%20global%20total.])
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*[http://time.com/3899972/us-superpower-status-military/ These Are the 5 Reasons Why the U.S. Remains the World’s Only Superpower]
 
*[http://time.com/3899972/us-superpower-status-military/ These Are the 5 Reasons Why the U.S. Remains the World’s Only Superpower]
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*[https://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2020/august-web-only/ive-experienced-this-cultural-moment-before-in-russia.html I’ve Experienced This Cultural Moment Before … in Russia] - Decline of the USA and Christian response
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*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiFYfDzdGaI The United States Transforms into a Global Superpower], 2024
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*[[Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future|The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future]]
 
*[[Essay: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future|The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future]]
  
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*[https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/files/is3201_pp112-147.pdf A Geriatric Peace? The Future of U.S. Power in a World of Aging Populations], 2007, [https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article-abstract/32/1/112/11893/A-Geriatric-Peace-The-Future-of-U-S-Power-in-a?redirectedFrom=fulltext Abstract]
 
*[https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/files/is3201_pp112-147.pdf A Geriatric Peace? The Future of U.S. Power in a World of Aging Populations], 2007, [https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article-abstract/32/1/112/11893/A-Geriatric-Peace-The-Future-of-U-S-Power-in-a?redirectedFrom=fulltext Abstract]
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USA and late Soviet Union comparison flawed:
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*[https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/gfile/no-we-are-not-living-in-late-soviet-america/ No, We Are Not Living in ‘Late Soviet America’], The Dispatch,  2024 
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*[https://www.aei.org/multimedia/we-arent-all-soviets-now-or-are-we-jonah-goldberg-vs-niall-ferguson/ We Aren’t All Soviets Now … Or Are We? | Jonah Goldberg vs. Niall Ferguson]  - Jonah Goldberg,  American Enterprise Institute, 2024
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US challenges:
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*[https://sites.google.com/view/usa-challenges/home USA - Pessimistic view of the future]
  
 
=== US/China power competition ===
 
=== US/China power competition ===
  
 
*[https://sites.google.com/view/usachinapowercompetition/home US/China power competition]
 
*[https://sites.google.com/view/usachinapowercompetition/home US/China power competition]
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=== USA and international relations ===
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Stephen Kotkin, historian (Moderate/liberal view):
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*[https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/trump-and-future-american-power-stephen-kotkin Trump and the Future of American Power. A Conversation With Stephen Kotkin], 2024 (Acknowledges Trump is very American and very unpredictable)
  
 
=== Canada ===
 
=== Canada ===
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*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3bxgkJNv40 Europe Is Losing Its Factories]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3bxgkJNv40 Europe Is Losing Its Factories]
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 +
==== France ====
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*[https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en Institute Montaigne]
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==== Germany ====
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*[https://www.ifw-kiel.de/ Kiel Institute]
  
 
=== India ===
 
=== India ===
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=== China ===
 
=== China ===
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 +
*[https://sites.google.com/view/decline-of-china/home Decline of China]
  
 
Economics:
 
Economics:
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Chinese economy: "Growth is slowing at an alarming pace. The most recent figures, for the three months to the end of June, were the worst in five quarters while consumer prices again threaten to tip into negative territory. More alarmingly, the three-year meltdown in its property market continues unabated. What once was chipping away at personal wealth is now running a wrecking ball through the economy, hitting terminally weak household consumption." [https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-23/china-approaching-economic-oblivion-property-market-trade-trap/104128504]
 
Chinese economy: "Growth is slowing at an alarming pace. The most recent figures, for the three months to the end of June, were the worst in five quarters while consumer prices again threaten to tip into negative territory. More alarmingly, the three-year meltdown in its property market continues unabated. What once was chipping away at personal wealth is now running a wrecking ball through the economy, hitting terminally weak household consumption." [https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-23/china-approaching-economic-oblivion-property-market-trade-trap/104128504]
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====  Decline of China ====
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*[https://sites.google.com/view/decline-of-china/home Decline of China]
  
 
==== US-China relations ====
 
==== US-China relations ====
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====== Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60% ======
 
====== Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60% ======
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*[https://www.reuters.com/world/china/why-chinas-economy-is-more-vulnerable-trump-tariffs-this-time-2024-11-06/ Why Trump tariffs pose a bigger threat to China’s economy this time], Reuters, November 2024
  
 
*[https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-suggests-tariffs-against-nations-including-china-over-illegal-immigration-2024-06-06/ Trump suggests tariffs against nations including China over illegal immigration], 2024
 
*[https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-suggests-tariffs-against-nations-including-china-over-illegal-immigration-2024-06-06/ Trump suggests tariffs against nations including China over illegal immigration], 2024
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=== Russia ===
 
=== Russia ===
  
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*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoZ6dBCgk1M Why Is Russia Not Rich?], 2024, video, History Scope
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==== Russia News ====
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[[Image:A Solzhenitsyn.jpg|thumbnail|500px|right|"Since then I have spent well nigh 50 years working on the history of our revolution, but if I were asked today to formulate as concisely as possible the main cause of the ruinous revolution that swallowed up some 60 million of our people, I could not put it more accurately than to repeat, men have forgotten God. That's why all this has happened." - [[Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn]]
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<br />
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Church attendance rates in Russia are low, and the level of religiosity in the country has been declining in recent years.[https://re-russia.net/en/review/278/] ]]
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*[https://russiapost.info/ Russia Post]
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*[https://www.youtube.com/@csis/videos Center for Strategic & International Studies]
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*[https://www.themoscowtimes.com/ Moscow Times] (con) and [https://www.youtube.com/@moscowtimes/videos Moscow Times - YouTube]
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*[https://theins.ru/en/ The Insider]
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*[https://en.thebell.io/ The Bell]
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*[https://www.youtube.com/@INSIDERUSSIA/videos Inside Russia] (Con)
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*[https://ridl.io/blog/ Riddle] (Con)
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*[https://www.youtube.com/@VladVexler/videos Vlad Vexler] (YouTube) - My mission is to guide you through the political challenges we all face in the 21st century.  I’m a philosopher. My academic life focuses on the concept of freedom and I'm writing a book about Isaiah Berlin. I'm a British citizen living in London. I was born in Soviet Russia - I left before the collapse of the USSR. I continue to closely analyse Russian politics.
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*[https://www.kyivpost.com/ Kyiv Post] and [https://www.youtube.com/@kyiv_post/videos Kyiv Post - YouTube]
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*[https://kyivindependent.com/ Kyiv Independent] and [https://www.youtube.com/@kyivindependent/videos Kyiv Independent - YouTube]
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*[https://www.youtube.com/@AnnafromUkraine/videos Anna from Ukraine]
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*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin+Putin&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Stephen Kotin - Putin] (Con)
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*[https://www.youtube.com/@theglobalgambit/videos Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics]  (YouTube) - Pyotr Kurzin is a British-Russian expat who lives in Washington DC and graduated from Johns Hopkins Univesity. 
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*[https://www.youtube.com/@SiliconCurtain/videos Silicon Curtain]
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*[https://www.youtube.com/@icarusproject/videos Icarus Project]
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*[https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics/search?query=russia Peter Zeihan - Russia] (Con)
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*[https://www.youtube.com/@JoeBlogs/search?query=russia Joe Blogs - Russia] (Con)
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*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin+russia&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Stephen Kotkin - Russia] (Con) - [https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/stephen-kotkin-ukraine-russia-china-and-world Stephen Kotkin on Ukraine, Russia, China and the World]
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<br />
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*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=mearsheimer&sp=EgIIBA%253D%253D John Mearsheimer] - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
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*[https://www.youtube.com/@DrSteveTurleyTV/search?query=Russia Steve Turley] - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
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*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aq1VBFyhIuI Dmitry Orlov - YouTube] - [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Orlov_(writer) Dmitry Orlov] is reasonable person overall in some ways and intelligent, leans Russia (American engineer and writer raised in Russia until the age of 12. Witnesswed Collapse of Soviet Union)
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<br />
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*[https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/videos The Duran] (Pro)
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*[https://www.youtube.com/@lenapetrova/videos Lena Petrova]
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*[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning
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*[https://www.rt.com/ Russia Today] (Pro)
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*[https://sputnikglobe.com/ Sputnik International] (pro)
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*[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning
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<br />
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<br />
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Blogs:
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*[https://www.russiamatters.org/blog Russia Matters] - Harvard's Kennedy Center for Science and International Affairs
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*[https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blogs/russia-file The Russia File] - Mixed bag
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*[https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/ In Moscow's Shadows]
 +
 
 +
=== General info on Russia ===
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[[File:Butter.jpg|thumbnail|right|400px|I used to be more interested in Russia, but the [https://www.newsweek.com/russians-resort-stealing-butter-amid-shortages-1976575 ButterGate] scandal put a damper on that.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin says that Russia's war economy is well balanced to supply both guns and butter, but the price of butter itself is now soaring as surging inflation distorts parts of the economy. The price of a block of butter has risen by 25.7 per cent since December, according to the state statistics service.
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'The Armageddon with butter is escalating,' Russian economists claim on Telegram.
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See: [https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-wartime-economy-butter-price-inflation-1.7371742 Butter prices soar in Russia amid surging inflation in war economy], CBC News, November 2, 2024 and [https://www.newsweek.com/russians-resort-stealing-butter-amid-shortages-1976575 Russians Resort to Stealing Butter Amid Shortages], ''Newsweek'', October 29, 2024 ]]
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*[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-russian-economy/home Russia and Russian economy] (Putin's trilemna, Check Russia's economy on 4-19-2027, Put in my electronic calendar). If war in Ukraine ends sooner, then recalibrate when I check on Russia's economy next.  
 
*[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-russian-economy/home Russia and Russian economy] (Putin's trilemna, Check Russia's economy on 4-19-2027, Put in my electronic calendar). If war in Ukraine ends sooner, then recalibrate when I check on Russia's economy next.  
 
*[https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/indicators Russia's leading economic indicators]  
 
*[https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/indicators Russia's leading economic indicators]  
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*[https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-per-capita-ppp Russia GDP per capita PPP]
 
*[https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-per-capita-ppp Russia GDP per capita PPP]
 
*[https://www.google.com/search?q=urals+oil+price&sca_esv=587351034&sxsrf=AM9HkKlSMypsScyN1A1QvRxVh7sfYPGTkw%3A1701556583927&ei=Z7FrZd-VOM_H0PEPxdy62AI&ved=0ahUKEwif5f-d6PGCAxXPIzQIHUWuDisQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=urals+oil+price&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiD3VyYWxzIG9pbCBwcmljZTIKEAAYgAQYigUYQzIKEAAYgAQYigUYQzIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyChAAGIAEGIoFGEMyBRAAGIAEMgsQABiABBiKBRiGAzILEAAYgAQYigUYhgNIziJQlAZYjSBwBXgBkAEAmAGtAaABqgqqAQQwLjEwuAEDyAEA-AEBwgIKEAAYRxjWBBiwA8ICDRAAGIAEGIoFGEMYsAPCAgsQABgWGB4Y8QQYCsICBRAhGKABwgIHEAAYgAQYDcICBhAAGB4YDcICBhAAGBYYHuIDBBgAIEGIBgGQBgo&sclient=gws-wiz-serp Urals oil price]
 
*[https://www.google.com/search?q=urals+oil+price&sca_esv=587351034&sxsrf=AM9HkKlSMypsScyN1A1QvRxVh7sfYPGTkw%3A1701556583927&ei=Z7FrZd-VOM_H0PEPxdy62AI&ved=0ahUKEwif5f-d6PGCAxXPIzQIHUWuDisQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=urals+oil+price&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiD3VyYWxzIG9pbCBwcmljZTIKEAAYgAQYigUYQzIKEAAYgAQYigUYQzIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyChAAGIAEGIoFGEMyBRAAGIAEMgsQABiABBiKBRiGAzILEAAYgAQYigUYhgNIziJQlAZYjSBwBXgBkAEAmAGtAaABqgqqAQQwLjEwuAEDyAEA-AEBwgIKEAAYRxjWBBiwA8ICDRAAGIAEGIoFGEMYsAPCAgsQABgWGB4Y8QQYCsICBRAhGKABwgIHEAAYgAQYDcICBhAAGB4YDcICBhAAGBYYHuIDBBgAIEGIBgGQBgo&sclient=gws-wiz-serp Urals oil price]
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*[https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/roads_quality/ Russia ranked #99 in the world in road quality], 2019. [https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/russia-s-pothole-predicament Russia's Pothole Predicament], 2017. "An estimated 40 percent of rural villages are not connected to a paved road. In 1999 an estimated 43 percent of federal roads (which account for 46,000 kilometers and half of the country’s trucking volume) did not meet minimum quality standards because of broken surfaces, poor marking, and poor lighting. Road conditions are a major factor in Russia’s very high rate of traffic casualties. The road crisis is exacerbated by steady increases in vehicle volume. [Source: Library of Congress, October 2006 **]. Automobile travel is expanding, but the construction of new roads is not keeping pace. Some dreamers believe that in the not too distant future, the pot-holed roads will be replaced with a network of modern highways and goods will thus be moved overland by truck rather than railway."[https://factsanddetails.com/russia/Education_Health_Transportation_Energy/sub9_6d/entry-5157.html#:~:text=Road%20Conditions%20in%20Russia,-According%20to%20the&text=About%2090%20percent%20of%20federal,and%20towns%20in%20each%20region.]  
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'''Russia's roads:'''
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"2024: According to most global rankings, Russian roads are considered to be of poor quality, placing them very low in the world ranking, often falling within the bottom half of countries when considering road infrastructure and quality; with reports frequently placing Russia around the 120th position globally." - [https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/2024/11/russia-land-of-potholes-and-bad-roads.html Russia: A land of potholes and bad roads!]
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==== Leading/insightful historians on Russia ====
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'''[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Radchenko Sergey Radchenko]:''' (He leans Western):
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[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=14cfa2bca5bf3d22&sxsrf=ADLYWIJnxz0hu51Od9L03AYu9QP1J-b32g:1733207521432&q=Sergey+Radchenko&tbm=nws&source=lnms&fbs=AEQNm0Aa4sjWe7Rqy32pFwRj0UkWtG_mNb-HwafvV8cKK_h1a0WYAF4mXQP8CuyQXqW6TNxu33IfIxH7NwnQR9rk5Rof0T7YPvS2QT9inz3OPGD-zkbPc_otHmADkabzRR-hh08FIDXRPgnmgqr9Sz_bDbvNbNKsTZ-mj8rD8AHbJ8UJGMv3rN4XWF78mW396acjeXCwLsCy0yyLXxHp3Dqmq9cSwOMxcA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjN84uV_YqKAxVUElkFHRZFBNUQ0pQJegQIGxAB&biw=1920&bih=917&dpr=1 Sergey Radchenko]- Google News
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*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Sergey+Radchenko+ Sergey Radchenko]
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Articles:
 +
 
 +
*[https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-should-putin-negotiate/ Why should Putin negotiate?] by the historian Sergey Radchenko, October 2024. He might be wrong due to financial pressure on Russia, but this is an unknown. Sergey S. Radchenko is a Soviet-born British-Russian historian. He tries to put himself in Putin's mindset as far as what Putin wants to accomplish, but he is not an economist so that is a shortcoming. Ultimately, authoritarian regimes are opaque as far as decision making and so "mind reading" is of limited value.  
 +
*[https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/vladimir-putin-does-not-want-a-peace-deal-he-wants-to-destroy-ukraine/ Vladimir Putin does not want a peace deal. He wants to destroy Ukraine.], Atlantic Council, December 2024 (Argues Putin does not want a peace deal and that the Istanbul 2022 peace terms of Russia were unreasonable) - Tough to do mind reading of autocratic regimes like Putin. Maybe financial pressures will cause Putin to agree to a peace deal or maybe Trump's more openness to a deal than Biden will cause Putin to be more willing to negotiate.  
 +
 
 +
'''Stephen Kotkin''' (He leans Western):
 +
 
 +
*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin Stephen Kotkin - YouTube search]
 +
*[https://www.google.com/search?q=stephen+kotkin&sca_esv=14cfa2bca5bf3d22&biw=1920&bih=917&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ADLYWIJ3dFDRN2XGfDAQLyWOmxUY5mcOPA%3A1733207831039&ei=F6dOZ7_8Aa-h5NoP7YG7iQI&ved=0ahUKEwj_49yo_oqKAxWvEFkFHe3ALiEQ4dUDCA0&uact=5&oq=stephen+kotkin&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LW5ld3MiDnN0ZXBoZW4ga290a2luMg4QABiABBiRAhixAxiKBTIFEAAYgAQyCxAAGIAEGJECGIoFMgsQABiABBiRAhiKBTIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABEj3K1AAWOMmcAF4AJABAJgBfaABqQyqAQQwLjE0uAEDyAEA-AEBmAIOoALODKgCAMICChAAGIAEGEMYigXCAgsQABiABBixAxiDAcICDhAAGIAEGLEDGIMBGIoFwgIIEAAYgAQYsQPCAg0QABiABBixAxhDGIoFwgIKEAAYgAQYsQMYCsICBxAAGIAEGAqYAwGSBwQwLjE0oAe2TA&sclient=gws-wiz-news Stephen Kotkin - Google News]
 +
 
 +
'''Richard Sakwa:''' (He leans pro-Russia)
 +
 
 +
*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Sakwa Richard Sakwa] - Wikipedia
 +
 
 +
*[https://www.google.com/search?q=Richard+Sakwa&sca_esv=14cfa2bca5bf3d22&biw=1920&bih=917&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ADLYWII2BISFOmUdLKnIXVLLg6X3lvT-6A%3A1733207532813&ei=7KVOZ8-jMY-Hw8cPoKL_yAM&ved=0ahUKEwjPycKa_YqKAxWPw_ACHSDRHzkQ4dUDCA0&uact=5&oq=Richard+Sakwa&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LW5ld3MiDVJpY2hhcmQgU2Frd2EyCxAAGIAEGJECGIoFMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIGEAAYFhgeMgYQABgWGB5I8TFQ9QlY-iVwAXgAkAEDmAGCAaABrQ-qAQQwLjE3uAEDyAEA-AEB-AECmAIDoAL0AqgCAMICChAAGIAEGEMYigWYAwKIBgGSBwMwLjOgB_5e&sclient=gws-wiz-news Richard Sakwa - Google news]
 +
*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Richard+Sakwa Richard Sakwa - YouTube search]
  
 
==== Various Scenarios for Russia's future ====
 
==== Various Scenarios for Russia's future ====
Line 565: Line 695:
 
*[https://willrussiapayukrainereparations.blogspot.com/2024/08/will-russia-eventually-pay-ukraine.html Will Russia eventually pay Ukraine reparations?], Deteriorating economic conditions post war in Ukraine causes Russia to wish reapproachment with the West and agree to paying Ukraine reparations
 
*[https://willrussiapayukrainereparations.blogspot.com/2024/08/will-russia-eventually-pay-ukraine.html Will Russia eventually pay Ukraine reparations?], Deteriorating economic conditions post war in Ukraine causes Russia to wish reapproachment with the West and agree to paying Ukraine reparations
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrpzRGWahSk Putin's offensive capability will be gone 'within a decade' | Peter Zeihan]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrpzRGWahSk Putin's offensive capability will be gone 'within a decade' | Peter Zeihan]
 +
*[https://istories.media/en/opinions/2024/11/13/mad-russia-is-a-long-time-coming/ Mad Russia is a Long Time Coming]
 +
===== Russia becoming a failed state. Decline of Russia =====
 +
[[File:Massive sewage geyser.png|thumbnail|right|400px|Skyscraper-high sewage plume of feces erupts in Moscow.[https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/2024/11/russias-sewage-system-crisis.html]  ]]
 +
*[https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/05/russia-ukraine-empire-imperialism-war/ The Inevitable Fall of Putin’s New Russian Empire], Foreign Policy, 2023 (Re-imperialization requirements: Strong economy, strong military and effective government. Russia lacks all three.).
 +
*[https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/2024/11/will-russia-become-failed-state-is.html Will Russia become a failed state within 10 years? Is Russia currently a failed state? Will Russia eventually become a failed state?]
 +
*[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-failing/home Russia becoming a failed state] - Google site
 +
*[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-is-in-decline/home Decline of Russia] - Google site
 +
*[https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/ Decline of Russia], Blog
 +
*[https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/2024/12/russias-overseas-troubles-so-many-all.html Russia's overseas troubles - so many all at once! Putin's jenga tower is unstable!], December 4, 2024
 +
*[https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/russia-disintegrate/ Could Russia disintegrate?], GIS reports, 2023 (Argues for slow decay)
 +
*[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/22/putin-regime-will-collapse-without-warning-says-freed-gulag-dissident Putin regime will collapse without warning, says freed gulag dissident], Guardian, 2024 (failed war, economic, etc.)
 +
*[https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/after-fall-must-we-prepare-breakup-russia After the Fall. Must We Prepare for the Breakup of Russia?], Institute Montaigne, 2023
 +
*[https://www.newsweek.com/decline-putins-russia-its-way-global-irrelevance-65847 In Decline, Putin's Russia Is On Its Way to Global Irrelevance], Historian Niall Ferguson on Russia, 2011 (updated 2017)
 +
 +
Quote: "What good is Russia as a partner if it cannot save its oldest client in the Middle East from a ragtag band of militias? Besides the operational setback, it is also a diplomatic and reputational blow.” - Eugene Rumer, director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, [https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/08/world/europe/russia-syria-assad-putin.html Bogged Down in Ukraine, Russia Pays a Price in Syria], NYT, December 8, 2024
  
 
==== Russia's entering stormy, uncharted, economic waters ====
 
==== Russia's entering stormy, uncharted, economic waters ====
Line 617: Line 762:
 
[[File:512px-Changing the guards kremlin.jpeg|thumbnail|right|400px|thumbnail|[[Goose step]]ping changing of the guards in Russia at the Kremlin in 2006.<ref>[https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Changing_the_guards_kremlin.JPG Changing of the guards in Russia at the Kremlin, 2006]</ref>]]
 
[[File:512px-Changing the guards kremlin.jpeg|thumbnail|right|400px|thumbnail|[[Goose step]]ping changing of the guards in Russia at the Kremlin in 2006.<ref>[https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Changing_the_guards_kremlin.JPG Changing of the guards in Russia at the Kremlin, 2006]</ref>]]
  
−
==== Russia economy and commentary by economists ====
+
==== Russia economy and commentary by economists and financial people ====
  
 
'''Sergei Guriev (Economist):'''  
 
'''Sergei Guriev (Economist):'''  
Line 637: Line 782:
  
 
*[https://www.amazon.com/stores/Sergei-Guriev/author/B09NZC2B91?ref=ap_rdr&isDramIntegrated=true&shoppingPortalEnabled=true Books by Sergei Guriev]
 
*[https://www.amazon.com/stores/Sergei-Guriev/author/B09NZC2B91?ref=ap_rdr&isDramIntegrated=true&shoppingPortalEnabled=true Books by Sergei Guriev]
 +
 +
Sergey Aleksashenko:
 +
 +
Sergey Aleksashenko is a Russian economist and former government official. He was the deputy finance minister and first deputy chairman of the board of the Central Bank of Russia from 1995 to 1998.[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Aleksashenko]
 +
 +
*[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=884896eda14e76c3&sxsrf=ADLYWIJ2IQgf_F59q8mpdt8UF_2u-h4P0Q:1731682026238&q=Sergey+Aleksashenko&tbm=nws&source=lnms&fbs=AEQNm0Aa4sjWe7Rqy32pFwRj0UkWtG_mNb-HwafvV8cKK_h1a5eSkyfXNgRC6a9SKsMT7FKel2oEVH7CAeL9GJLZ9zSE1b0VTwOacLkI4XgtHWeWNmKPMmJVT-fsL2j8HgVBOedFE0rcv3l9ce7iX7VQHiBT41qOitP2uFNPJwqo3Nj1J21-Gh5tg3bNyqf1kLEJ7mR0Orp4LTigYJIGRfW985SFZs7PWg&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjPrKagyt6JAxXBmokEHbE_M70Q0pQJegQIERAB&biw=1920&bih=917&dpr=1 Sergey Aleksashenko - Google news search]
 +
 +
Vladislav Inozemtsev:
 +
 +
Vladislav Leonidovich Inozemtsev is a Russian academician who is the director of the Moscow-based Centre for Research on Post-Industrial Societies, a nonprofit think tank. He is a professor and the chair at the Department of World Economy, Faculty of Public Governance, Moscow State Lomonosov University.[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladislav_Inozemtsev]
 +
 +
*[https://archive.is/becjN#selection-1923.20-1923.40 The odds of Russia's economy collapsing are 'extremely small' and the war can go on for the long], Vladislav Inozemstev, 2024
 +
*[https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=884896eda14e76c3&sxsrf=ADLYWILJcjkm81G_yXAWbh30qR-r1pF8BA:1731682389834&q=Vladislav+Inozemtsev&tbm=nws&source=lnms&fbs=AEQNm0Aa4sjWe7Rqy32pFwRj0UkWtG_mNb-HwafvV8cKK_h1a5eSkyfXNgRC6a9SKsMT7FKel2oEVH7CAeL9GJLZ9zSE1b0VTwOacLkI4XgtHWeWNmKPMmJVT-fsL2j8HgVBOedFE0rcv3l9ce7iX7VQHiBT41qOitP2uFNPJwqo3Nj1J21-Gh5tg3bNyqf1kLEJ7mR0Orp4LTigYJIGRfW985SFZs7PWg&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwikzNbNy96JAxW-jYkEHQ22AwcQ0pQJegQIEBAB&biw=1920&bih=917&dpr=1 Vladislav Inozemtsev - Google news]
  
 
'''Alexandra Prokopenko:'''
 
'''Alexandra Prokopenko:'''
Line 668: Line 826:
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=+Jeffrey+Sonnenfeld&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Jeffrey Sonnenfeld - YouTube], YouTube
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=+Jeffrey+Sonnenfeld&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Jeffrey Sonnenfeld - YouTube], YouTube
  
−
==== Russia News ====
 
  
−
*[https://russiapost.info/ Russia Post]
+
Russian war machine and its sensitivity to oil prices:
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/@csis/videos Center for Strategic & International Studies]
+
−
*[https://www.themoscowtimes.com/ Moscow Times] (con)
+
−
*[https://theins.ru/en/ The Insider]
+
−
*[https://en.thebell.io/ The Bell]
+
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/@theglobalgambit/videos Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics]  (YouTube) - Pyotr Kurzin is a British-Russian expat who lives in Washington DC and graduated from Johns Hopkins Univesity. 
+
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/@VladVexler/videos Vlad Vexler] (YouTube) - My mission is to guide you through the political challenges we all face in the 21st century.  I’m a philosopher. My academic life focuses on the concept of freedom and I'm writing a book about Isaiah Berlin. I'm a British citizen living in London. I was born in Soviet Russia - I left before the collapse of the USSR. I continue to closely analyse Russian politics.
+
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/@SiliconCurtain/videos Silicon Curtain]
+
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/@INSIDERUSSIA/videos Inside Russia] (Con)
+
−
*[https://ridl.io/blog/ Riddle] (Con)
+
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/@icarusproject/videos Icarus Project]
+
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/@ZeihanonGeopolitics/search?query=russia Peter Zeihan - Russia] (Con)
+
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/@JoeBlogs/search?query=russia Joe Blogs - Russia] (Con)
+
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin+russia&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Stephen Kotkin - Russia] (Con) - [https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/stephen-kotkin-ukraine-russia-china-and-world Stephen Kotkin on Ukraine, Russia, China and the World]
+
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=stephen+kotkin+Putin&sp=EgIIBQ%253D%253D Stephen Kotin - Putin] (Con)
+
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/@AnnafromUkraine/videos Anna from Ukraine]
+
  
−
<br />
+
It is argued that only a slump in oil prices will stop Russia's war efforts (See: [https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/only-an-oil-slump-can-stop-vladimir-putin-2024-03-18/ Only an oil slump can stop Vladimir Putin], Reuters, 2024).
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=mearsheimer&sp=EgIIBA%253D%253D John Mearsheimer] - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
+
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/@DrSteveTurleyTV/search?query=Russia Steve Turley] - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
+
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aq1VBFyhIuI Dmitry Orlov - YouTube] - [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Orlov_(writer) Dmitry Orlov] is reasonable person overall in some ways and intelligent, leans Russia (American engineer and writer raised in Russia until the age of 12. Witnesswed Collapse of Soviet Union)
+
−
<br />
+
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/@TheDuran/videos The Duran] (Pro)
+
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/@lenapetrova/videos Lena Petrova]
+
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning
+
−
*[https://www.rt.com/ Russia Today] (Pro)
+
−
*[https://sputnikglobe.com/ Sputnik International] (pro)
+
−
*[https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/videos Dialogue Works] - Pro-Russia leaning
+
−
<br />
+
−
<br />
+
−
Blogs:
+
  
−
*[https://www.russiamatters.org/blog Russia Matters] - Harvard's Kennedy Center for Science and International Affairs
+
*[https://archive.is/qP0R3#selection-695.0-695.91 Saudi Arabia has a big plan for oil that could hammer Russia’s war machine, economists warn], Fortune magazine, October 14, 2024
−
*[https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blogs/russia-file The Russia File] - Mixed bag
+
−
*[https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/ In Moscow's Shadows]
+
  
 
Russian oil: Lower production and lower profits:
 
Russian oil: Lower production and lower profits:
  
 +
*[https://archive.is/tuyE6#selection-501.0-501.67 Donald Trump’s Presidency Will Likely Boost U.S. Oil Output In 2025], Fortune, November 6, 2024
 +
*[https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russias-Oil-Revenues-Plunged-29-in-October-as-Crude-Prices-Fell.html Russia’s Oil Revenues Plunged 29% in October as Crude Prices Fell], Oilprice.com
 +
*[https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Fall-as-Trump-Inches-Toward-Victory.html Oil Prices Fall as Trump Inches Toward Victory], Oilprice.com)
 
*[https://archive.ph/RzRRI The Golden Age of Russian Oil Nears an End]
 
*[https://archive.ph/RzRRI The Golden Age of Russian Oil Nears an End]
 
*[https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Future-of-Russian-Oil-Production-in-the-Short-Medium-and-Long-Term-Insight-57.pdf The Future of Russian Oil Production in the Short, Medium, and Long Term], [https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/the-future-of-russian-oil-production-in-the-short-medium-and-long-term/ Abstract]
 
*[https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Future-of-Russian-Oil-Production-in-the-Short-Medium-and-Long-Term-Insight-57.pdf The Future of Russian Oil Production in the Short, Medium, and Long Term], [https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/the-future-of-russian-oil-production-in-the-short-medium-and-long-term/ Abstract]
Line 721: Line 851:
  
 
==== Russian culture overview ====
 
==== Russian culture overview ====
 +
 +
International relations:
  
 
*[https://bigthink.com/the-past/russia-myths-and-realities/ Why Russia sees itself as much more than just a nation]
 
*[https://bigthink.com/the-past/russia-myths-and-realities/ Why Russia sees itself as much more than just a nation]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJSDdCPpbto Prof. Kotkin: "Russia: Back to the USSR or Back to the Tsarist Empire?"]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJSDdCPpbto Prof. Kotkin: "Russia: Back to the USSR or Back to the Tsarist Empire?"]
−
*Russian culture, traditions and art: [https://www.livescience.com/44154-russian-culture.html#:~:text=Russian%20culture%20has%20a%20long,to%20its%20ornate%20religious%20symbols. Russian Culture: Facts, Customs & Traditions] and [https://www.britannica.com/place/Russia/Cultural-life Russian Culture, Traditions, Arts - Britannica] and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culture_of_Russia culture of Russia] and [https://culturalatlas.sbs.com.au/russian-culture/russian-culture-core-concepts Russian culture - Core Concepts] and [https://www.tota.world/article/1601 Russian Cultural Overview] and [https://www.advantour.com/russia/culture.htm Russian Culture] and [https://www.56thparallel.com/russian-traditions/ A guide to: Russian Traditions, Culture, Customs & Etiquette]
+
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAu9prBL5Bs To Run the World: The Kremlin's Cold War Bid for Global Power] by [https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=a54abf1cb7933d7b&sxsrf=ADLYWIKErN7yDBLSf7gc2p9B7MzJPbndhw:1729612938328&q=Sergey+Radchenko&tbm=nws&source=lnms&fbs=AEQNm0Aa4sjWe7Rqy32pFwRj0UkWtG_mNb-HwafvV8cKK_h1a5eSkyfXNgRC6a9SKsMT7FKel2oEVH7CAeL9GJLZ9zSE1b0VTwOacLkI4XgtHWeWNoh5zOuUDAXdYlDCgudMwVm8Q_C3PSXnqvYaHPM-f2C27OJHIBf2F026DrNVVK7DrYYq11uFIXF7ScJ7Y69on5hm6hl6qngG8jwgq0xGMIetYDw-cw&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjPxaamrqKJAxUvkokEHTZYJ-EQ0pQJegQIERAB&biw=1920&bih=917&dpr=1 Sergey Radchenko]
  
 +
Culture:
 +
 +
*Russian culture, traditions and art: [https://www.livescience.com/44154-russian-culture.html#:~:text=Russian%20culture%20has%20a%20long,to%20its%20ornate%20religious%20symbols. Russian Culture: Facts, Customs & Traditions] and [https://www.britannica.com/place/Russia/Cultural-life Russian Culture, Traditions, Arts - Britannica] and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culture_of_Russia culture of Russia] and [https://culturalatlas.sbs.com.au/russian-culture/russian-culture-core-concepts Russian culture - Core Concepts] and [https://www.tota.world/article/1601 Russian Cultural Overview] and [https://www.advantour.com/russia/culture.htm Russian Culture] and [https://www.56thparallel.com/russian-traditions/ A guide to: Russian Traditions, Culture, Customs & Etiquette]
 
*[https://greenhearttravel.org/blog/teach-in-a-homestay-russia/5-characteristics-of-russian-culture-i-have-learned-from-my-host-family 5 Characteristics of Russian Culture I Have Learned from My Host Family While Teaching English]
 
*[https://greenhearttravel.org/blog/teach-in-a-homestay-russia/5-characteristics-of-russian-culture-i-have-learned-from-my-host-family 5 Characteristics of Russian Culture I Have Learned from My Host Family While Teaching English]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWo-PXvaXLAA35Je934wbfev6BMCGkK61 Contemporary Russia before the war in Ukraine and Russian history] - video playlist
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWo-PXvaXLAA35Je934wbfev6BMCGkK61 Contemporary Russia before the war in Ukraine and Russian history] - video playlist
Line 733: Line 868:
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnKsO1LDRrM The Black Legend of Russian History - The Burning Archive Podcast Remixed]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnKsO1LDRrM The Black Legend of Russian History - The Burning Archive Podcast Remixed]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcFfQ3-2onM A brief history of Russia with Sergei Guriev]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcFfQ3-2onM A brief history of Russia with Sergei Guriev]
 +
*[https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2010/10/INOZEMTSEV/19776#partage Russia, a society without citizens] by Vladislav Inozemtsev, Monde Diplomatique, 2010
 +
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jqnx3La76jc Why Russia is so poor and weak], video
 +
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoZ6dBCgk1M Why Is Russia Not Rich?], 2024, video, History Scope
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fJ6j-kUcvc The History Behind Russia's Expansionary Foreign Policy with Stephen Kotkin | Policy Stories]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fJ6j-kUcvc The History Behind Russia's Expansionary Foreign Policy with Stephen Kotkin | Policy Stories]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVooyeCm_YM Plenary 1: Russia, Civilization, and Western Liberalism]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVooyeCm_YM Plenary 1: Russia, Civilization, and Western Liberalism]
Line 771: Line 909:
 
'''Putin:'''
 
'''Putin:'''
  
−
*[https://sites.google.com/view/vlad-putin-101/home Vladimir Putin - history and analysis]
+
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BItVlwystr8 Drunk president who created Vladimir Putin - The story of Boris Yeltsin] and [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9YnDirqwT4 Best of drunk Boris Yeltsin!]
 +
*[https://sites.google.com/view/vlad-putin-101/home Vladimir Putin - history and analysis] - Google sites
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnWp_kr4tfc What Everyone Needs to Know about Russia Under Putin - FPRI's 2018 Champagne Brunch for Partners]  (Russia is a paradox of strengths and weaknesses)
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnWp_kr4tfc What Everyone Needs to Know about Russia Under Putin - FPRI's 2018 Champagne Brunch for Partners]  (Russia is a paradox of strengths and weaknesses)
 
*[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-17/why-china-s-sinking-economy-could-backfire-on-vladimir-putin/104355186 Why China's sinking economy could backfire on Vladimir Putin , Australian Broadcasting Corporation], 2024
 
*[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-17/why-china-s-sinking-economy-could-backfire-on-vladimir-putin/104355186 Why China's sinking economy could backfire on Vladimir Putin , Australian Broadcasting Corporation], 2024
Line 784: Line 923:
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sB8_322qbM President Putin asks outgoing government to remain at work - Richard Sakwa], 2020  
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sB8_322qbM President Putin asks outgoing government to remain at work - Richard Sakwa], 2020  
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvOINAeRSMQ Putin Debate | Richard Sakwa | Oxford Union], 2014 (Achievements and downsides of Putin)
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvOINAeRSMQ Putin Debate | Richard Sakwa | Oxford Union], 2014 (Achievements and downsides of Putin)
 +
*[https://archive.is/5N6JE 8 over-the-top, macho Putin stunts that were nowhere near as impressive as they seemed], Business Insider, 2019
 
*[https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-dismissed-us-warnings-days-before-moscow-concert-hall-attack-2024-3 Putin dismissed US warnings about a potential terror incident as 'blackmail' just 3 days before Moscow concert hall attack]
 
*[https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-dismissed-us-warnings-days-before-moscow-concert-hall-attack-2024-3 Putin dismissed US warnings about a potential terror incident as 'blackmail' just 3 days before Moscow concert hall attack]
 
*Putin fell down stairs, soiled himself as speculation over worsening health grows: report.[https://nypost.com/2022/12/02/putin-fell-down-stairs-soiled-himself-amid-health-woes-report/][https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/putin-fell-down-stairs-soiled-himself-claims-report-amid-health-rumours/articleshow/95982373.cms][https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/vladimir-putin-news-russia-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-health-vladimir-putin-falls-down-stairs-soils-himself-at-official-residence-report-101670128999409.html][https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11494595/Vladimir-Putin-fell-stairs-home-soiled-himself.html]
 
*Putin fell down stairs, soiled himself as speculation over worsening health grows: report.[https://nypost.com/2022/12/02/putin-fell-down-stairs-soiled-himself-amid-health-woes-report/][https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/putin-fell-down-stairs-soiled-himself-claims-report-amid-health-rumours/articleshow/95982373.cms][https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/vladimir-putin-news-russia-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-health-vladimir-putin-falls-down-stairs-soils-himself-at-official-residence-report-101670128999409.html][https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11494595/Vladimir-Putin-fell-stairs-home-soiled-himself.html]
Line 802: Line 942:
 
'''Ukraine:'''
 
'''Ukraine:'''
  
 +
*[https://sites.google.com/view/ukraine-powderkeg/home Ukraine - Google sites]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEIFwLKlq1Q Kim Iversen: Former NATO Analyst & Top UN Official Says THIS Is The REAL Reason For War In Ukraine]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEIFwLKlq1Q Kim Iversen: Former NATO Analyst & Top UN Official Says THIS Is The REAL Reason For War In Ukraine]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fTxHIVUjRc The Chris Hedges Report: The truth about Ukraine with Medea Benjamin] - History of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia (And U.S. involvement)
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fTxHIVUjRc The Chris Hedges Report: The truth about Ukraine with Medea Benjamin] - History of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia (And U.S. involvement)
Line 836: Line 977:
  
 
'''Russia is experiencing a large brain drain:'''  
 
'''Russia is experiencing a large brain drain:'''  
 +
 +
*[https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/2024/11/russias-economy-is-that-of-shrinking.html Russia's brain drain]
 +
 +
*[https://archive.is/aA1vB#selection-1351.0-1351.127 Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's], Business Insider, 2024 (Makes a 2026 forecast)
  
 
*[https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9 Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's], Business Insider, September 2023
 
*[https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9 Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's], Business Insider, September 2023
Line 915: Line 1,060:
  
 
*[https://www.cidob.org/publicaciones/serie_de_publicacion/notes_internacionals/n1_213/will_russia_return_to_europe Will Russia Return to Europe?], 2019
 
*[https://www.cidob.org/publicaciones/serie_de_publicacion/notes_internacionals/n1_213/will_russia_return_to_europe Will Russia Return to Europe?], 2019
 +
 +
== BRICS ==
 +
 +
2024:
 +
 +
BRICS are not agreeing on a common currency so it's not much of an international trade organization.
 +
 +
BRICS is a China lead/dominated organization subsidized by China. China accounts for about 52% to 70% of the BRICS group's total GDP. If China keeps having economic problems, BRICS probably doesn't have much a future.
 +
 +
With the addition of new members in BRICS+, the group of emerging powers will be more globally representative ­— but also face more internal divisions.[https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/brics-summit-emerging-middle-powers-g7-g20?lang=en] For example, "In a major setback to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Brazil has decided against joining Beijing’s multi-billion-dollar initiative becoming the second country after India in the BRICS bloc not to endorse the mega project."[https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/brazil-becomes-second-brics-country-after-india-not-to-join-chinas-bri/article68809530.ece]
 +
 +
China and India's historical disagreements regarding membership expansion will shape the prospects of aspiring BRICS countries and the organization's future.
 +
 +
2019 source:  "China is playing the leading role in this process, as a main investor and importer of FDI (foreign direct investment) and trade partner in BRICS group... Trade and investment cooperation of China with other BRICS countries exerts very strong impact on the development of their economies. China continue to deepen its economic ties with other BRICS countries and open up its financial market to serve as a cushion against rising global uncertainty. Development of Intra-BRICS trade and investment cooperation is very important in the context of trade war imposed by the USA against China." '''But China is having economic weakness in 2024.'''[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1043951X19300100#:~:text=China%20is%20playing%20the%20leading,formation%20of%20their%20economic%20growth.]
  
 
== Better demographics and a country being a stronger power ==
 
== Better demographics and a country being a stronger power ==
Line 922: Line 1,081:
 
*[https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/geosci.2023043?viewType=HTML Demography, geopolitics and great power: A lesson from the past], Aim Press, 2023
 
*[https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/geosci.2023043?viewType=HTML Demography, geopolitics and great power: A lesson from the past], Aim Press, 2023
 
*[https://www.isa-world.com/news/?tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=410&cHash=75d2b3ca20ed102940b3a64ce8f44b4e The Geopolitical Importance of Demographic Power], 2018
 
*[https://www.isa-world.com/news/?tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=410&cHash=75d2b3ca20ed102940b3a64ce8f44b4e The Geopolitical Importance of Demographic Power], 2018
 +
 +
=== USA and demographics and it being favorable to other major powers ===
 +
 +
*[https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/13/united-states-demographic-edge-china-russia-birthrates/ The United States Has a Keen Demographic Edge], May 13, 2024
 +
*[https://www.polytechnique-insights.com/en/braincamps/geopolitics/do-demographics-still-weigh-in-on-geopolitics/demographics-in-the-us-are-a-source-of-power/ Demographics in the US are a source of power], Polytechnique Insights, Paris
  
 
== Countries by population ==
 
== Countries by population ==
Line 1,033: Line 1,197:
 
== NATO ==
 
== NATO ==
  
−
*[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-russian-economy/home NATO]
+
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaZQhrwSBcE What is NATO? Explained in 1 minute]
 +
 
 +
As of 2024, the USA pays 16% of NATO's total budget.[https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/us-contributes-16-nato-annual-budget-not-two-thirds-2024-05-31/]
 +
 
 +
*[https://sites.google.com/view/nato-intfo-other-info/home NATO] - Google sites
  
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEoY7OT3xwE Why NATO may have to stop a Russian invasion - without the US], Daily Mail, 2023
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEoY7OT3xwE Why NATO may have to stop a Russian invasion - without the US], Daily Mail, 2023
  
 
*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO%E2%80%93Russia_relations#:~:text=In%201991%2C%20as%20the%20Soviet,aim%20was%20to%20join%20NATO. NATO–Russia relations]
 
*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO%E2%80%93Russia_relations#:~:text=In%201991%2C%20as%20the%20Soviet,aim%20was%20to%20join%20NATO. NATO–Russia relations]
−
 
−
*[https://sites.google.com/view/russia-russian-economy/home NATO and Russia]
 
  
 
=== Expansion of NATO ===
 
=== Expansion of NATO ===
  
−
'''Pro-NATO expansion:'''
+
'''Did the USA  promise not to expand in 1990? No, it did not view:'''
  
 +
*[https://bitterwinter.org/myth-of-the-american-coups-in-ukraine-4-the-nato/ Did the NATO Really Promise Not to Expand Eastward?], Bitter Winter
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dwe8l8to8pA Stephen Kotkin on Russia’s argument to NATO expansion] - anti-Russian/Putin argument on NATO expansion
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dwe8l8to8pA Stephen Kotkin on Russia’s argument to NATO expansion] - anti-Russian/Putin argument on NATO expansion
 
*"But it was Vladimir Putin himself who signed the Rome Declaration on 28 May 2002. The same piece of paper I signed, which enshrined the basic principles of territorial integrity and non-interference in other countries. He signed that. He can't blame anybody else."[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68359252]
 
*"But it was Vladimir Putin himself who signed the Rome Declaration on 28 May 2002. The same piece of paper I signed, which enshrined the basic principles of territorial integrity and non-interference in other countries. He signed that. He can't blame anybody else."[https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68359252]
  
−
Historian Mary E. Sarotte on issue of whether the West promised no NATO expansion:
+
Historian Mary E. Sarotte on the issue of whether the West promised no NATO expansion:
  
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cTFk6MNUHQ&t=2576s Historian Mary E. Sarotte argues that there was no promised for NATO not to expand eastward]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cTFk6MNUHQ&t=2576s Historian Mary E. Sarotte argues that there was no promised for NATO not to expand eastward]
Line 1,059: Line 1,226:
 
*''Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate'' by Mary E. Sarotte. ‎Yale University Press; First Edition (November 30, 2021)
 
*''Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate'' by Mary E. Sarotte. ‎Yale University Press; First Edition (November 30, 2021)
  
 +
'''Did the USA  promise not to expand in 1990? Middle of the road view:'''
  
−
'''Middle of the road on NATO expansion:'''
+
*[https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/40/4/7/12126/Deal-or-No-Deal-The-End-of-the-Cold-War-and-the-U Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and the U.S. Offer to Limit NATO Expansion ], MIT
−
 
+
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVt-WXTLIZM Did NATO promise Russia never to expand to the east? | DW News], claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVt-WXTLIZM Did NATO promise Russia never to expand to the east? | DW News], claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO
  
−
'''Anti-NATO expansion:'''
+
'''Did the USA  promise not to expand in 1990? Yes, it did view'''
  
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mciLyG9iexE Stephen F. Cohen: NATO expansion and Russia], claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mciLyG9iexE Stephen F. Cohen: NATO expansion and Russia], claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO
Line 1,139: Line 1,306:
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TmmhwQs10s Why the post-1989 global system is facing collapse]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TmmhwQs10s Why the post-1989 global system is facing collapse]
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3PXFA1xaCk Civilizational World Order w/Dr. Steve Turley] - Listen to this
 
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3PXFA1xaCk Civilizational World Order w/Dr. Steve Turley] - Listen to this
 +
 +
=== Anti-American axis (China/Russia/Iran/North Korea ===
 +
 +
*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qw7xG1KGC_U The US's enemies want to shatter the world order]
  
 
== Globalization of trade ==
 
== Globalization of trade ==
Line 1,153: Line 1,324:
  
 
* [https://sites.google.com/view/peoplewhofallforpropaganda/home Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda]
 
* [https://sites.google.com/view/peoplewhofallforpropaganda/home Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda]
 +
== Imperialism, interventionism and isolationism ==
 +
 +
*[https://sites.google.com/view/imperialism-isolationism/home Imperialism, interventionism and isolationism] - Google sites
 +
 +
== Military ==
 +
 +
*[[User: Conservative/military|Military]]
 +
 +
== Top 10 militaries by strength ==
 +
 +
'''Rankings of the world's top militaries:'''
 +
 +
Articles may not take into account alliances such as NATO, Aukus, etc.  [https://sites.google.com/view/nato-intfo-other-info/home NATO] has a provision that an attack on one country is an attack on all of the countries. See: [https://sites.google.com/view/nato-intfo-other-info/home NATO articles and videos]
 +
 +
The U.S.-Japan Alliance (日米同盟, Nichi-Bei Dōmei) is a military alliance between Japan and the United States of America, as codified in the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, which was first signed in 1951, took effect in 1952, and was amended in 1960.[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S.%E2%80%93Japan_Alliance#:~:text=The%20U.S.%2DJapan%20Alliance%20(%E6%97%A5,and%20was%20amended%20in%201960.]
 +
 +
'''Articles and resources:'''
 +
 +
*[https://www.globalfirepower.com/ Global Firepower website]
 +
 +
*[https://indianexpress.com/article/trending/top-10-listing/top-10-most-powerful-countries-in-the-world-by-military-strength-in-2024-9382565/ Top 10 most powerful countries in the world by military strength in 2024], Indian Express, 2024[https://archive.is/jqbGj] (The USA, UK, Turkey and Italy are members of NATO).
 +
 
== Military, wars, mass murder and expense  ==
 
== Military, wars, mass murder and expense  ==
 
[[File:WWII collage.JPG|thumbnail|right|300px|[[WWII]] photo montage]]
 
[[File:WWII collage.JPG|thumbnail|right|300px|[[WWII]] photo montage]]
Line 1,222: Line 1,415:
  
 
=== Military concepts ===
 
=== Military concepts ===
−
 
+
[[Image:Clausewitz.jpg|right|thumb|[[Carl von Clausewitz]] ]]
 
*[[Sun Tzu]]
 
*[[Sun Tzu]]
 
*[[Sun Tzu quotes]]
 
*[[Sun Tzu quotes]]
Line 1,231: Line 1,424:
 
*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawfare Lawfare]
 
*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawfare Lawfare]
 
*[[Carl von Clausewitz]]
 
*[[Carl von Clausewitz]]
 +
*[[Antoine-Henri Jomini]]
 
*[[List of military strategies and concepts]]
 
*[[List of military strategies and concepts]]
 
*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth-generation_warfare Fourth generation warfare]
 
*[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth-generation_warfare Fourth generation warfare]
Line 1,247: Line 1,441:
  
 
*Military Incompetence: Why the American Military Doesn't Win (American Century) by Richard A. Gabriel. Hill & Wang Pub; First Edition (January 1, 1985)
 
*Military Incompetence: Why the American Military Doesn't Win (American Century) by Richard A. Gabriel. Hill & Wang Pub; First Edition (January 1, 1985)
 +
 +
==== Are we headed towards WW3? It's not likely - at least not yet ====
 +
 +
*[https://today.tamu.edu/2024/02/22/are-we-heading-for-world-war-iii-texas-am-experts-say-its-unlikely/ Are We Heading For World War III? Texas A&M Experts Say It’s Unlikely]: "While recent wars have sparked speculation about an ensuing global conflict, military scholars say comparisons to past world wars are largely overblown."
 +
 +
*[https://news.sky.com/story/are-we-heading-for-world-war-three-experts-give-their-verdicts-13116540 Are we heading for World War Three? Experts give their verdicts]
 +
*[https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/comments/1ew4r4i/cmv_were_not_heading_towards_world_war_3_or_a/ We are not headed towards WW3 - at least not yet]
 +
*"If I remember correctly, the last anxiety about world war in international public opinion appeared during the Cold War in the 1960s and 1970s... It is both thought-provoking and alarming that talk of world war has become heated and part of official discourse once again after half a century. Looking around, however, it seems that no one is really making plans to start a such a war."[https://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/are-we-heading-into-world-war-iii]
 +
 +
==== Victories in war are not necessarily won by winning battles. Wars can be won by eliminating the enemies will to fight which is a critical factor in winning wars ====
 +
[[File:Sun Tzu portrait.jpg|thumbnail|right|200px|"Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."- [[Sun Tzu]] ]]
 +
In the Vietnam War, the Vietnamese consistently lost the bigger battles and the U.S. General Westmoreland was obsessed about body counts that showed the USA was "winning". However, although the Tet Offensive was not ultimately not a successful operation militarily, it did win on the propaganda front because it showed the American public that the Vietcong were not on their last legs. Specifically, the Tiet Offensive showed that the Vietmanese still had power to oppose the USA via a large operation and as a result of this the American public soured on the war. One does not win wars solely by winning battles. Breaking the will of the enemy is a key component  as far as how wars are won (And wars are generally governed by politics[https://vimeo.com/397320700]). Near the end of the Vietnam War at the peace negotiations, the American officer Harry Summers said to a Vietcong colonel that the USA won on the battlefield and the Vietcong did not. The Vietcong colonel replied back, that's true, but it is also irrelevant.[https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/winning-battles-losing-wars] It was the political context that was more important in the Vietnam War than the military context. But ultimately the the USA won the peace in Vietnam as evidenced by all the Coca Cola now being sold in Vietnam and the current cordial relations between the USA and Vietnam.
 +
 +
One of the things the Russians may face in Ukraine if they win a pyrrhic victory is a Ukrainian insurgency that wears down the Russians. Most insurgencies are not successful and last about 10 years.[https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG965.sum.pdf][https://publications.armywarcollege.edu/News/Display/Article/3890242/the-challenges-of-next-gen-insurgency/#:~:text=Insurgency%2C%20or%20something%20like%20it,discover%20its%20dangers%20and%20inefficacy.] However, The Troubles insurgency in Northern Ireland lasted about 30 years and perhaps the same could happen in Ukraine due to the bitterness of the conflict and due to the intensity of Ukrainian nationalism. This may come into play because of two factors: First, [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmeZRN6YrN0 Russia defector reveals 'majority' of people inside Kremlin unhappy with war in Ukraine], ABC News video, July 2023. This shows that some of the will to fight in the Kremlin may have been diminished (But Putin likely calls the shots so this issue is not a definitive point). Secondly, as far as the Kursk invasion, the inability of the Russian state to protect its borders shows this: [https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/05/03/russia-has-failed-as-a-state/ Russia has failed as a state], Modern Diplomacy, 2023 and [https://archive.ph/Jqu2p#selection-637.0-637.99 Almost half of global strategists think Russia could become a failed state within the next 10 years], Fortune magazine, January 23, 2023 and [https://decline-of-russia.blogspot.com/2024/11/will-russia-become-failed-state-is.html Will Russia become a failed state within 10 years? Is Russia currently a failed state? Will Russia eventually become a failed state?]
 +
 +
"Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." - [[Sun Tzu]]
  
 
== Sanctions have a poor record in effectiveness with unintended consequences ==
 
== Sanctions have a poor record in effectiveness with unintended consequences ==

Latest revision as of 09:18, 9 December 2024

Politics


Politics

Contents

International relations and geopolitics YouTube channels, websites and podcasts

International relations:

Geopolitics:

Geopolitics and Empire

Geopolitics and Empire - Features people from the right, center and left (Conducts interviews with prominent international experts on a wide-range of topics. Past guests have included diplomats, government officials, whistleblowers, soldiers, spies, economists, academics, scientists, wealthy investors, dissidents, journalists, and musicians.):

Burning archive:

Popular International relations and geopolitics:

  • Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics (YouTube) - Pyotr Kurzin is a British-Russian expat who lives in Washington DC and graduated from Johns Hopkins Univesity.

Nikola Mikovic - Serbian (Tries to be objective realistic)

Pro-Western YouTube channels:

  • RANE (Related to Stratfor)

Pro-Western podcasts:

India:

Pro-Russia, semi anti-Western, anti-Western or pessimistic about the West/USA

Glen Diesen videos:

International relations websites - Pro-Western

Major powers: Western World, USA, European nations, China and Russia, World events and world history

Burning Archive

David Woo Unbound

Peter Zeihan

Stephen Kotkin lectures

The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

Search Party

World Politics Review

Combines realist/liberal internationalist school perspective. Written by several hundred contributors from around the world, experts in a variety of disciplines.

Adam Tooze

Emmanuel Todd

  • Emmanuel Todd - Contrarian French historian, anthropologist, demographer, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies in Paris.

The changing character of war - Peter Zeihan

Current state of the world in terms of polarity and international relations

Biggest mistakes of view of international politics in terms of distortions are these 3: Geography is destiny (Mackinder), world is simply great power politics (Mearsheimer) and cycles of history (Turchin). See: Three mistakes geopolitics makes about history (Mackinder, Mearsheimer, Turchin). Better way to look at things is look at specific/unique circumstances. Theories/ideology should not trump reality/specific/unique history.

World is currently a mix of nationalism/cultures/global trade and political blocks (West vs. China/Russia/Iran/North Korea. Also, nonaligned countries. USA is still the strongest country in terms of economics, etc.).

Polarity (International relations)

Bipolar:

Middle Ground:

Multiple views discussed:

Multipolar:

Focuses on the rise of non-state actors and the state having less power:

Western World

USA

File:Bigger, better, stronger.jpg
“Sadly the American dream is dead, but if I get elected president I will bring it back. Bigger, better and stronger than ever before.” - Donald Trump

See: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
File:Trump dancing.png
"Surrounded by serious and talented people like J.D. Vance, his running mate, RFK Jr., who abandoned his own campaign to support Trump, former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, Vivek Ramaswamy, Elon Musk and other business leaders, Donald Trump’s campaign will be like Patton’s Third Army racing across France in 1944." - Roger Kimball, Why Kamala Harris will lose', The Spectator, October 21, 2024

Economy:

US economic outlook:

US long term economic outlook:

USA oil production:

"The US is the largest oil-producing country in the world, with output of 21.91 million barrels per day in 2023, taking the spot for the sixth year in a row."[3]

USA 2030s economic depression forecast:

Articles, leading power:

USA's power relative to other nations and the aging populations in the major powers:

USA and late Soviet Union comparison flawed:

US challenges:

US/China power competition

USA and international relations

Stephen Kotkin, historian (Moderate/liberal view):

Canada

Europe

File:There are no atheists on a sinking ship.jpg
According to a September 2022 Ipsos poll, 7 in 10 Britons agree that the UK is in decline.[1]

As the HMS United Kingdom was going down, Britons could be heard saying, "We shouldn't have put Charles Darwin on our currency. God is not mocked. We are reaping what we sowed."

European News:

  • The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) - The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) is the research division of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Europe, a leading American graduate school offering advanced degrees in international relations, international affairs and global risk.

Other:

Europe's anti-Americanism post start of Russia vs. Ukraine War:

Classical liberalism view:

Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent:

The deindustrialization of Germany/Europe (Europe's economic engine):

France

Germany

India

Websites:

YouTube:

Articles:

China

Economics:

Chinese politics and economics:

China and financial websites:

YouTube channels:

China:

China, leading economic indicators:

Length of modern, authoritarian/communist regimes:

China's property crisis:

Chinese economy: "Growth is slowing at an alarming pace. The most recent figures, for the three months to the end of June, were the worst in five quarters while consumer prices again threaten to tip into negative territory. More alarmingly, the three-year meltdown in its property market continues unabated. What once was chipping away at personal wealth is now running a wrecking ball through the economy, hitting terminally weak household consumption." [5]

Decline of China

US-China relations

Donald Trump and his China policy

China likely stuck in middle-income trap

China and debt

Chinese export strategy will not work this time

File:House-of-cards.jpg
In the coming years and decades, the slowing Chinese economy will show that it is a fragile house of cards.

"The U.S.'s steep tariff hikes on Chinese goods took effect on Friday after Beijing criticized the move as mutually destructive protectionism. The Biden administration announced in May that it was upholding tariffs on $300 billion worth of Trump administration tariffs after a four-year review.

Due to China having a significantly higher percentage of world exports than it did 25 years ago, China cannot export its way out of its economic problems because the world is not as able to absorb China's exports (See: China’s Export Game Won’t Work This Time, Forbes, April 15, 2024).

Biden hits China with steel tariffs
US trade chief calls for action to shield EV sector from China
Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60%

In 2023, China's exports made up around 18.9% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

According to World's Top Exports, the United States is one of China's top trading partners, accounting for 14.8% of China's total exports in 2023.

If USA starts decoupling from China, it could spur other countries to as well (Like a contagion). Plus, it would give other countries more bargaining power.

China's economy is already showing "economic cracks".

Video: Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60% ?

US tariffs against China may spark China-EU Trade War
Communist China's plan to address its property crisis will do tremendous damage to China's economic prospects

See: Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)

Peter Zeihan on Chinese housing overbuild:

Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back

Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back, Economist, May 16, 2024

China and a potential balance sheet recession

Anti-China hawks

Pro-China doves

USA is an era of "cold peace"/frenemies era and not yet cold war yet

Taiwan

Japan

Japan YouTube channels:

Russia

Russia News

File:A Solzhenitsyn.jpg
"Since then I have spent well nigh 50 years working on the history of our revolution, but if I were asked today to formulate as concisely as possible the main cause of the ruinous revolution that swallowed up some 60 million of our people, I could not put it more accurately than to repeat, men have forgotten God. That's why all this has happened." - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

Church attendance rates in Russia are low, and the level of religiosity in the country has been declining in recent years.[1]


  • John Mearsheimer - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
  • Steve Turley - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
  • Dmitry Orlov - YouTube - Dmitry Orlov is reasonable person overall in some ways and intelligent, leans Russia (American engineer and writer raised in Russia until the age of 12. Witnesswed Collapse of Soviet Union)




Blogs:

General info on Russia

File:Butter.jpg
I used to be more interested in Russia, but the ButterGate scandal put a damper on that.

Russian President Vladimir Putin says that Russia's war economy is well balanced to supply both guns and butter, but the price of butter itself is now soaring as surging inflation distorts parts of the economy. The price of a block of butter has risen by 25.7 per cent since December, according to the state statistics service.

'The Armageddon with butter is escalating,' Russian economists claim on Telegram.

See: Butter prices soar in Russia amid surging inflation in war economy, CBC News, November 2, 2024 and Russians Resort to Stealing Butter Amid Shortages, Newsweek, October 29, 2024

Russia's roads:

"2024: According to most global rankings, Russian roads are considered to be of poor quality, placing them very low in the world ranking, often falling within the bottom half of countries when considering road infrastructure and quality; with reports frequently placing Russia around the 120th position globally." - Russia: A land of potholes and bad roads!

Leading/insightful historians on Russia

Sergey Radchenko: (He leans Western):

Sergey Radchenko- Google News

Articles:

  • Why should Putin negotiate? by the historian Sergey Radchenko, October 2024. He might be wrong due to financial pressure on Russia, but this is an unknown. Sergey S. Radchenko is a Soviet-born British-Russian historian. He tries to put himself in Putin's mindset as far as what Putin wants to accomplish, but he is not an economist so that is a shortcoming. Ultimately, authoritarian regimes are opaque as far as decision making and so "mind reading" is of limited value.
  • Vladimir Putin does not want a peace deal. He wants to destroy Ukraine., Atlantic Council, December 2024 (Argues Putin does not want a peace deal and that the Istanbul 2022 peace terms of Russia were unreasonable) - Tough to do mind reading of autocratic regimes like Putin. Maybe financial pressures will cause Putin to agree to a peace deal or maybe Trump's more openness to a deal than Biden will cause Putin to be more willing to negotiate.

Stephen Kotkin (He leans Western):

Richard Sakwa: (He leans pro-Russia)

Various Scenarios for Russia's future

Russia becoming a failed state. Decline of Russia
File:Massive sewage geyser.png
Skyscraper-high sewage plume of feces erupts in Moscow.[2]

Quote: "What good is Russia as a partner if it cannot save its oldest client in the Middle East from a ragtag band of militias? Besides the operational setback, it is also a diplomatic and reputational blow.” - Eugene Rumer, director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, Bogged Down in Ukraine, Russia Pays a Price in Syria, NYT, December 8, 2024

Russia's entering stormy, uncharted, economic waters

"According to the Russian Central Bank, over $253 billion in private capital has left the country, and estimates suggest that up to one million highly skilled workers have emigrated, constituting about 10% of Russia's technology workforce and a third of its millionaires​, according to the Financial Times." - Russian Economy in 'Stormy Uncharted Waters,' Putin's Banking Chief Says, 2024

Potential stagflation or deep recession for Russia in 2025

"The Bank of Russia’s statements indicate the central bank sees the economy on the cusp of stagflation. Despite sanctions and labor shortages binding output growth, corporations and consumers don’t expect price increases to slow. They also don’t perceive double digit borrowing rates as particularly restrictive. The central bank is right to be worried — we expect inflation to continue running above policymakers’ 4% target, while GDP growth is likely to slow to 1%-1.5% in 2025." — Alex Isakov, Russia economist[6]

Russia and sales of natural gas:

Fertility rate and demographic crisis relative to Russia:


Alcoholism rising in Russia due to psychological tension related to the war in Ukraine - alcohol consumption is at a 9 year high:

  • But as supply in Russia has dwindled, demand has shot up. As db reported, the increased demand for alcoholic drinks is partly due to “psychological tension” caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. In 2023, the number of litres of alcohol consumed per person per year in Russia reached a nine-year high to eight litres, and may even be higher than that volume. Currently the per capita sales of absolute alcohol are growing in Russia. This clearly indicates an increase in consumption. This is how the population responds to difficulties,” said Evgeny Andreev, a leading researcher at the Centre for Demographic Research of the Russian Economic School (NES).[7].

Tremendous cost of wounded and PTSD/alcoholic veterans post war in Ukraine: Wounded Veterans, Wounded Economy: The Personnel Costs of Russia’s War


Will Russian assets be seized?

The limits of the Russian military:


File:512px-Changing the guards kremlin.jpeg
Goose stepping changing of the guards in Russia at the Kremlin in 2006.[2]

Russia economy and commentary by economists and financial people

Sergei Guriev (Economist):

Articles by Sergei Guriev:

Videos by Sergei Guriev:

Books by Sergei Guriev:

Sergey Aleksashenko:

Sergey Aleksashenko is a Russian economist and former government official. He was the deputy finance minister and first deputy chairman of the board of the Central Bank of Russia from 1995 to 1998.[8]

Vladislav Inozemtsev:

Vladislav Leonidovich Inozemtsev is a Russian academician who is the director of the Moscow-based Centre for Research on Post-Industrial Societies, a nonprofit think tank. He is a professor and the chair at the Department of World Economy, Faculty of Public Governance, Moscow State Lomonosov University.[9]

Alexandra Prokopenko:

Alexandra Prokopenko (Expert on Russian economic and monetary policy and the decision-making. From 2017 until early 2022 Alexandra worked at the Central Bank of Russia and at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow. She is a former columnist for Vedomosti. She is a graduate of Moscow State University and holds an MA in Sociology from the University of Manchester:

Key articles by Alexandra Prokopenko:

Anders Aslund:


Jeffrey Sonnenfeld


Russian war machine and its sensitivity to oil prices:

It is argued that only a slump in oil prices will stop Russia's war efforts (See: Only an oil slump can stop Vladimir Putin, Reuters, 2024).

Russian oil: Lower production and lower profits:

Economic problems:

Russian culture overview

International relations:

Culture:

Other cultural overview:

Religiosity percentages of Russians:

Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future and The true impact of a year of war on Russia's economy

Russia and fertility rate and demographics:

Contemporary Russia:

Putin:

Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?

Maps of Russia:

Ukraine:

Russians destroying churches and engaging in religious discrimination in Ukraine:

Russia's fertility rate and demographic crisis

"So far, Moscow has demonstrated long-term adeptness in its policies toward immigrants, relaxing regulations when they were most needed. For instance, it admitted more immigrants after the pandemic and during the war, gradually simplified the rules for granting citizenship, and compensated for the natural population decline through naturalisation. This flexible approach, regardless of the current social climate in the country, is likely to continue. Although this will not reverse the negative trends, it will significantly mitigate them to prevent a demographic collapse. However, Russia’s plans could be thwarted by a severe economic downturn, which would discourage immigrants from Central Asia and the Caucasus from choosing Russia as a destination for economic migration."[15]

"An increase in beatings, vandalism and episodes of racism against Central Asian migrants has been reported in Russia since the deadly attacks at Moscow's Crocus City Hall last Friday."[16]

Russian diaspora

"A large Russian diaspora (sometimes including Russian-speaking non-Russians), estimated at 25 million people, has developed all over the world, with notable numbers in the United States, Germany, Brazil, and Canada."[17] See also: Russian diaspora

Post Ukraine invasion Russian diaspora:

Russia is experiencing a large brain drain:

Will Jews Continue To Flee Russia in Large Numbers?


Many high-income people are fleeing Russia:


File:The places that millionaires are leaving 2022 to 2023.png
The places that millionares are leaving in 2023-2024. Russian is 4rth on the list.

Template:Clear

American views of Putin and Russia:

"Americans overwhelmingly rate Putin negatively: 88% say they do not have confidence in the Russian president to do the right thing regarding world affairs, with two-thirds saying they have no confidence in him at all. A similar share lacked confidence in him in 2023 (90%)." - Pew Research, May 8, 2024[18]

"As Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, Americans remain very negative toward Russia: 91% have an unfavorable view of the country, including 62% who say their views are very unfavorable. Just 7% in the U.S. have a favorable view of Russia. This is a similar level of negativity compared with last year’s survey, when 92% of Americans were negative toward Russia." - Pew Research, Pew Research, May 10, 2023[19]

Post Western World notion

Decline of nations:

Map of world by population size

Peter Zeihan's view

The historian Stephen Kotkin on 5 scenarios for Russia's future

Will Russia ever have good relations with Europe again? If so, will it happen relatively/somewhat soon or ever?

Con view

Cultures tend to change slow.

The website Cultural Front notes: Template:Cquote

Pro-view

BRICS

2024:

BRICS are not agreeing on a common currency so it's not much of an international trade organization.

BRICS is a China lead/dominated organization subsidized by China. China accounts for about 52% to 70% of the BRICS group's total GDP. If China keeps having economic problems, BRICS probably doesn't have much a future.

With the addition of new members in BRICS+, the group of emerging powers will be more globally representative ­— but also face more internal divisions.[20] For example, "In a major setback to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Brazil has decided against joining Beijing’s multi-billion-dollar initiative becoming the second country after India in the BRICS bloc not to endorse the mega project."[21]

China and India's historical disagreements regarding membership expansion will shape the prospects of aspiring BRICS countries and the organization's future.

2019 source: "China is playing the leading role in this process, as a main investor and importer of FDI (foreign direct investment) and trade partner in BRICS group... Trade and investment cooperation of China with other BRICS countries exerts very strong impact on the development of their economies. China continue to deepen its economic ties with other BRICS countries and open up its financial market to serve as a cushion against rising global uncertainty. Development of Intra-BRICS trade and investment cooperation is very important in the context of trade war imposed by the USA against China." But China is having economic weakness in 2024.[22]

Better demographics and a country being a stronger power

USA and demographics and it being favorable to other major powers

Countries by population

World economics and trends

Global weekly economic update

GNP by country

Per capita:

Total GNP:

2023

2024: Stephen Kotkin on international relations and geopolitics

World News

World news Western perspective:

World News - NonWestern perspective:

Non-Western international politics YouTube channels perspective:

World news. Data-driven UK YouTube video channel:

Israel

Times of Israel:

CBN News:

General:

  • JNS (BTW, JNS is also critical on ADL's Greenblatt woke stuff), INN, and at times center leaning I24, or left leaning - Ynet or TOI. ILH is center leaning. Note. JPost is usually center leaning when it states it's by "Jerusalem Post Staff," but it often posts pure Reuters stuff.

Israel and prophecy/Bible/miracles

Modern Israel fulfills biblical prophecy:

Prophecies about the land of Israel fulfilled in our lifetime: Is Modern Israel Fulfilling Prophecy? and Is the modern state of Israel the fullfillment of prophecy and Unveiling the mysteries of Israel: Four biblical prophecies being fulfilled right now.

Miracles

Six Day War

USA foreign policy: Interventionalism vs. Isolationism

Trends:

Pointless and costly wars such as the Iraq War and War in Afghanistan are very expensive. The renowned military strategist and general Sun Tzu wrote: "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." Among the USA public, a less interventionalist and more isolationist sentiment is growing - particularly among young people (See: Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?). Of course, anything taken to an extreme can be a bad thing. The United States should stay engaged in the world - especially when it comes to the use of skillful diplomacy. At the same time, sometimes wars are unavoidable, but when a nation engages in a war, it should be a just war (See: Just War Theory).

Also, as the USA does more and more onshoring of its companies, there will be less and less of an incentive to be the world's policeman on the high seas (See: Deglobalization: The US Navy's Withdrawl as Global Protector).

NATO

As of 2024, the USA pays 16% of NATO's total budget.[23]

  • NATO - Google sites

Expansion of NATO

Did the USA promise not to expand in 1990? No, it did not view:

Historian Mary E. Sarotte on the issue of whether the West promised no NATO expansion:

  • Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate by Mary E. Sarotte. ‎Yale University Press; First Edition (November 30, 2021)

Did the USA promise not to expand in 1990? Middle of the road view:

Did the USA promise not to expand in 1990? Yes, it did view

NATO's soft underbellys

China and Christianity

What would a post-communist China look like?

World map

World map by population

Major power politics in the 21st century for the foreseeable future

John Mearsheimer's view

Mearsheimer on US defense establishment likely to learn from the war in Ukraine

Mearsheimer argues that liberalism pulls a society apart due to disagreement on first principles and that is why it preaches tolerance, but nationalism is a glue that helps hold a society together.[25]. Mearsheimer says liberals don't like realist school of politics because it goes against the grain of idealism and they like to pretend that liberal democracies never engage in realpolitik type behavior.[26]

Background info that Mearsheimer doesn't discuss: China is in economic decline, but it might attack Taiwan to distract from domestic economic problems. But such a war would hurt it economically since it is a trading nation and the Chinese appear to know that. Chinese threats of attacking Taiwan may be political kabuki theatre for its domestic population to distract from its interal problems.

Limitations/problems of Mearsheimer's view

Peter Zeihan's view

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio

Changing civilizational world order

Anti-American axis (China/Russia/Iran/North Korea

Globalization of trade

Books

Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda

Imperialism, interventionism and isolationism

Military

Top 10 militaries by strength

Rankings of the world's top militaries:

Articles may not take into account alliances such as NATO, Aukus, etc. NATO has a provision that an attack on one country is an attack on all of the countries. See: NATO articles and videos

The U.S.-Japan Alliance (日米同盟, Nichi-Bei Dōmei) is a military alliance between Japan and the United States of America, as codified in the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, which was first signed in 1951, took effect in 1952, and was amended in 1960.[28]

Articles and resources:

Military, wars, mass murder and expense

File:WWII collage.JPG
WWII photo montage

"The level of war in the world seems to have risen to 1989 (post-WWII) peak levels and holding, ending the pacific 1989-2006 era. Does this contradict the Decline of Violence (Pinker) / End of History (Fukuyama) theses, or is it just a blip?". - Professor Eric Kaufmann, Twitter/X.[30], See: War and Peace.

War, debt and the collapse of empires

How long do wars last?

Wars start out as wars of maneuver. If a war a war of maneuver doesn't achieve victory in 6 months, then it most cases it turns into a war of attrition (Wars of attrition are more common than insurgencies after a war).[31]

Wars are ended by removing an enemies will to fight and/or ability to fight (Productive capacity)[32]

  • "Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." - Sun Tzu
  • "What is essential in war is victory, not prolonged operations." - Sun Tzu
  • "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." - Sun Tzu

How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics:

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies article How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine Template:Cquote

File:Georgetown 2.jpg
Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[3]

Template:Clear

Just war vs. realist view of war

Winning the peace vs. winning a war

Military

Wars and warlike natures

Studies:

Democratic peace theory and related matters

Mass murder

Right-wing death squads vs. Left-wing murderous regimes

Military concepts

File:Clausewitz.jpg
Carl von Clausewitz

Military competence and incompetence

  • Task and purpose (Chris Cappy is a former US Army infantryman and Iraq Veteran. I cover geopolitics, history, weapon systems and all things military related — I do this from a veteran's perspective.).

Military competence

  • Deliberate Discomfort: How U.S. Special Operations Forces Overcome Fear and Dare to Win by Getting Comfortable Being Uncomfortable by Jason B.A. Van Camp and Andy Symonds. Ballast Books (February 18, 2020)

Military incompetence

  • On the Psychology of Military Incompetence by Norman F Dixon. Basic Books; Illustrated edition (May 31, 2016)
  • Military Incompetence: Why the American Military Doesn't Win (American Century) by Richard A. Gabriel. Hill & Wang Pub; First Edition (January 1, 1985)

Are we headed towards WW3? It's not likely - at least not yet

Victories in war are not necessarily won by winning battles. Wars can be won by eliminating the enemies will to fight which is a critical factor in winning wars

File:Sun Tzu portrait.jpg
"Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."- Sun Tzu

In the Vietnam War, the Vietnamese consistently lost the bigger battles and the U.S. General Westmoreland was obsessed about body counts that showed the USA was "winning". However, although the Tet Offensive was not ultimately not a successful operation militarily, it did win on the propaganda front because it showed the American public that the Vietcong were not on their last legs. Specifically, the Tiet Offensive showed that the Vietmanese still had power to oppose the USA via a large operation and as a result of this the American public soured on the war. One does not win wars solely by winning battles. Breaking the will of the enemy is a key component as far as how wars are won (And wars are generally governed by politics[34]). Near the end of the Vietnam War at the peace negotiations, the American officer Harry Summers said to a Vietcong colonel that the USA won on the battlefield and the Vietcong did not. The Vietcong colonel replied back, that's true, but it is also irrelevant.[35] It was the political context that was more important in the Vietnam War than the military context. But ultimately the the USA won the peace in Vietnam as evidenced by all the Coca Cola now being sold in Vietnam and the current cordial relations between the USA and Vietnam.

One of the things the Russians may face in Ukraine if they win a pyrrhic victory is a Ukrainian insurgency that wears down the Russians. Most insurgencies are not successful and last about 10 years.[36][37] However, The Troubles insurgency in Northern Ireland lasted about 30 years and perhaps the same could happen in Ukraine due to the bitterness of the conflict and due to the intensity of Ukrainian nationalism. This may come into play because of two factors: First, Russia defector reveals 'majority' of people inside Kremlin unhappy with war in Ukraine, ABC News video, July 2023. This shows that some of the will to fight in the Kremlin may have been diminished (But Putin likely calls the shots so this issue is not a definitive point). Secondly, as far as the Kursk invasion, the inability of the Russian state to protect its borders shows this: Russia has failed as a state, Modern Diplomacy, 2023 and Almost half of global strategists think Russia could become a failed state within the next 10 years, Fortune magazine, January 23, 2023 and Will Russia become a failed state within 10 years? Is Russia currently a failed state? Will Russia eventually become a failed state?

"Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." - Sun Tzu

Sanctions have a poor record in effectiveness with unintended consequences

International agreements

International agreements often fail to achieve their intended results

While international agreements certainly have their place and peace/peacemaking are always a good thing to pursue, research indicates that most international agreements fail to achieve their aims (International treaties have mostly failed to produce their intended effects, PNAS, August 1, 2022, 119 (32) e2122854119 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2122854119). Given men's frequent cases of poor thinking/planning and the sinfulness of human nature, this is not entirely surprising.

Also, as far as the Russian/Ukrainian peace negotiations, agreements are only as good as the trustworthiness of the people signing them. And unfortunately, Russia/Putin/Biden Administration are all corrupt and shown HERE as can be seen in points #1, #2 and #3.

And when I look at the Minsk Agreements, former agreements and promises mentioned below, I see Russia/Ukraine/West breaking agreements/promises. Also, as far as the Minsk Agreements, as can be seen below, Russia appears to be the biggest violaters of the Minsk Agreements, with Ukraine breaking the agreements also.

Russia, West, Ukraine and the West all acting badly in terms of Minsk Agreements, agreements and promises:

Russia acting badly:

TUESDAY, JUNE 7, 2016, U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations: "Russia has acted contrary to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, and the Incidents at Sea Agreement. Russia has altered the human rights landscape within its own country, decreasing democracy and begging questions about the future of governance, not just in Moscow, but across the Federation. Moreover, Russia has joined the civil war in Syria and begun militarizing the Arctic."[4]

West and Ukraine acting badly:

World politics, peak oil consumption, technology, forecasts, China and Russia

China, economic decline, green energy adoption and oil consumption:

USA's oil production:

  • Why U.S. Oil Production Is 6.5% Ahead Of Last Year’s Record Pace, September 2024. Ongoing growth in U.S. oil output remains a key driver of the global energy market. U.S. crude oil production will almost certainly set a second consecutive record this year, reflecting strong demand and advances in extraction technologies, particularly in shale oil. If Trump is elected, USA oil production may further improve.

Saudi oil production:

Nuclear power growing due to technological advances:

Short-term oil price forecast:

Forecast of world oil consumption:

Exxon Mobil forecast:

OPEC Forecasts:

Notes

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