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Politics

Contents

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International relations and geopolitics YouTube channels, websites and podcasts

International relations:

Geopolitics:

Geopolitics and Empire

Geopolitics and Empire - Features people from the right, center and left (Conducts interviews with prominent international experts on a wide-range of topics. Past guests have included diplomats, government officials, whistleblowers, soldiers, spies, economists, academics, scientists, wealthy investors, dissidents, journalists, and musicians.):

Popular International relations and geopolitics:

  • Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics (YouTube) - Pyotr Kurzin is a British-Russian expat who lives in Washington DC and graduated from Johns Hopkins Univesity.

Nikola Mikovic - Serbian (Tries to be objective realistic)

Pro-Western YouTube channels:

  • RANE (Related to Stratfor)

Burning archive:

Pro-Western podcasts:

India:

Pro-Russia, semi anti-Western, anti-Western or pessimistic about the West/USA

Glen Diesen videos:

International relations websites - Pro-Western

Major powers: Western World, USA, European nations, China and Russia, World events and world history

File:Why the West is powerful.png
In the above map, the Western World regions of the world are colored light blue.

There are countries in Asia that have adopted much of Western values such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.

The above graphic comes from the video Why the West Won’t Collapse with Stephen Kotkin (Stephen Kotkin is an American historian, academic, and author.)

GIS Reports

Aaron Watson

  • Aaron Watson and Aaron Watson at X/Twitter - The world is ruled by the powerful. The powerful accrue power through building businesses, leading countries, and operating strategically. Study their moves.

Geopolitical Monitor

Peter Zeihan

Paul Warburg

  • Paul Warburg- YouTube. Paul Warburg is an independent, open-source geopolitical analyst.In a world of murky information that is often made far more complex than it needs to be, I like to speak in plain English to actual human beings, so that everyone can understand what's going on in our world.

Geopoint

Asia Society

The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

Caspian Report

Silicon Curtain

  • Silicon Curtain - A channel about propaganda, digital disinformation, politics, corruption, hybrid warfare, weaponised conspiracy theories, social echo chambers and digital dystopias.

Burning Archive

Neo Explains

PolyMatter

Context Matters

David Woo Unbound

Stephen Kotkin lectures

Search Party

  • Search Party - International relations/documentary/entertainment

World Politics Review

Combines realist/liberal internationalist school perspective. Written by several hundred contributors from around the world, experts in a variety of disciplines.

Adam Tooze

Emmanuel Todd

  • Emmanuel Todd - Contrarian French historian, anthropologist, demographer, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies in Paris.

Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

  • Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl - Establishment viewpoint. Dominik Presl is an intelligence and security analyst specializing in OSINT, cyber-enabled influence operations, and strategic risk analysis. He has extensive experience tracking state-sponsored threats, foreign interference, and adversarial tactics, advising governments, security institutions, and private sector clients on disinformation, cyber-enabled threats, and geopolitical risks.[7]

The changing character of war - Peter Zeihan

Current state of the world in terms of polarity and international relations

Biggest mistakes of view of international politics in terms of distortions are these 3: Geography is destiny (Mackinder), world is simply great power politics (Mearsheimer) and cycles of history (Turchin). See: Three mistakes geopolitics makes about history (Mackinder, Mearsheimer, Turchin). Better way to look at things is look at specific/unique circumstances. Theories/ideology should not trump reality/specific/unique history.

World is currently a mix of nationalism/cultures/global trade and political blocks (West vs. China/Russia/Iran/North Korea. Also, nonaligned countries. USA is still the strongest country in terms of economics, etc.).

Polarity (International relations)

"A decline in China's power would have a significant impact on the concept of multipolarity. A multipolar world is characterized by multiple great powers with considerable influence, and a decline in China's power would mean fewer such powers. This could shift the global power balance, potentially leading to a more unipolar or bipolar world where a few dominant nations control the international system."[8] See: Decline of China

Bipolar:

Middle Ground:

Multiple views discussed:

Multipolar:

Focuses on the rise of non-state actors and the state having less power:

Western World

USA

File:Bigger, better, stronger.jpg
“Sadly the American dream is dead, but if I get elected president I will bring it back. Bigger, better and stronger than ever before.” - Donald Trump

See: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future
File:Trump dancing.png
"Surrounded by serious and talented people like J.D. Vance, his running mate, RFK Jr., who abandoned his own campaign to support Trump, former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, Vivek Ramaswamy, Elon Musk and other business leaders, Donald Trump’s campaign will be like Patton’s Third Army racing across France in 1944." - Roger Kimball, Why Kamala Harris will lose', The Spectator, October 21, 2024

Economy:

US economic outlook:

US long term economic outlook:

Roads:

USA oil production:

"The US is the largest oil-producing country in the world, with output of 21.91 million barrels per day in 2023, taking the spot for the sixth year in a row."[9]

USA 2030s economic depression forecast:

Articles, leading power:

USA's power relative to other nations and the aging populations in the major powers:

USA and late Soviet Union comparison flawed:

US challenges:

History of countries that have opposed the United States

Trump effect vs. Putin effect

USA: World's only superpower since 1991



File:USA world's sole superpower.png
Source: USA longest reigning superpower

Template:Clear

US/China power competition

USA and international relations

Stephen Kotkin, historian (Moderate/liberal view):

Canada

Europe

File:There are no atheists on a sinking ship.jpg
According to a September 2022 Ipsos poll, 7 in 10 Britons agree that the UK is in decline.[1]

As the HMS United Kingdom was going down, Britons could be heard saying, "We shouldn't have put Charles Darwin on our currency. God is not mocked. We are reaping what we sowed."

European News:

  • The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) - The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) is the research division of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Europe, a leading American graduate school offering advanced degrees in international relations, international affairs and global risk.

Other:

Europe's anti-Americanism post start of Russia vs. Ukraine War:

Classical liberalism view:

Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent:

The deindustrialization of Germany/Europe (Europe's economic engine):

United Kingdom

Mainstream/left:

France

Germany

India

"There are several reasons to be bullish on India, including its economic resilience, growing consumer class, and improving business environment. India's economy is one of the fastest growing in the world, with a GDP growth of 7.2% in FY23 and 6.5% estimated for FY24. India's GDP growth has surpassed China's in recent years and is expected to continue doing so."[11][12][13]

Websites:

YouTube:

Articles:

China

File:Donald Trump official presidential photo.jpg
"Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary." - Donald Trump[2]

See:

*Why Trump tariffs pose a bigger threat to China’s economy this time, Reuters, 2024

*China Has Limited Firepower to Counter U.S. Tariffs, Wall Street Journal, 2025

China is a declining superpower that wants the world (especially the Western media) to think it is a rising superpower.

News:

Economics:

Chinese politics and economics:

China and financial websites:

YouTube channels:

File:Matador2.jpg
January 2025: Inadvertently provocative: China just waved a $1.6 trillion trade deficit red cape in front of Donald Trump right before his inauguration.[1]

China:

China, leading economic indicators:

Length of modern, authoritarian/communist regimes:

China's property crisis:

Chinese economy: "Growth is slowing at an alarming pace. The most recent figures, for the three months to the end of June, were the worst in five quarters while consumer prices again threaten to tip into negative territory. More alarmingly, the three-year meltdown in its property market continues unabated. What once was chipping away at personal wealth is now running a wrecking ball through the economy, hitting terminally weak household consumption." [14]

Decline of China

Potential tipping point:

"According to current economic analysis, a significant "crash" in China's economy is not expected in the near future, but many experts are predicting a continued slowdown in growth, with the most concerning factor being the ongoing real estate crisis, which could potentially lead to a more severe downturn if not addressed effectively; some analysts suggest that a major economic slowdown could occur sometime in the next few years, with 2025 being a potential point of concern due to the lingering effects of the property market issues and potential challenges in stimulating new growth drivers"[15] See: Japanification (Economics)

China tech not being strong enough to save China's economy from decline

"The 10 executives, investors and economists I interviewed said they believed that China’s advances in tech would not be enough to pull the country out of its economic slump. Advanced manufacturing makes up about only 6 percent of China’s output, much smaller than real estate, which contributes about 17 percent of gross domestic product even after a sharp slowdown."[16]

Japanification/stagnation/deflation of Chinese economy combined with economic instability. China is suffering from deflation and devaluation at the same time.

See also: Japanification, video playlist

File:Geisha SBMOA.jpg
Turning Japanese by the Vapors

China is suffering from deflation and devaluation at the same time which is worse than Japanification:

Japan experienced economic malaise from the 1990s to 2010s (see: Japan's lost decades - 1990s to 2010s).

"Japanification" is a term used to describe a country's economic decline, similar to the big economic decline Japan experienced in the 1980s and 1990s. Some say that China is experiencing "Japanification" due to its weak economic recovery, high debt levels, property crisis, falling/aging population, increasingly difficult trade relations and other similarities. In December 2024, Bloomberg News reported concerning China: "China’s longer-maturity yields recently fell past their Japanese counterparts, a sign that fixed-income investors were positioning for Japanification."[3]

"China, the global growth engine for the last 20 years, now boasts lower long-term bond yields than Japan, the former poster child for deflationary economic stagnation. This may signal that the "factory to the world" faces the real risk of "Japanification."
"China's bond yields have plunged to their lowest levels on record, with the two-year yield about to break below 1.00%, having been 1.50% only a few months ago. Remarkably, China's 30-year yield recently fell below the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield for the first time ever." Reuters, January 8, 2025 - China's tumbling bond yields intensify 'Japanification' risks

China getting old before it gets rich:

China and globalization/globalism

Videos:

US-China relations

Donald Trump and his China policy

China likely stuck in middle-income trap

China and debt

Chinese export strategy will not work this time

File:House-of-cards.jpg
In the coming years and decades, the slowing Chinese economy will show that it is a fragile house of cards.

"The U.S.'s steep tariff hikes on Chinese goods took effect on Friday after Beijing criticized the move as mutually destructive protectionism. The Biden administration announced in May that it was upholding tariffs on $300 billion worth of Trump administration tariffs after a four-year review.

Due to China having a significantly higher percentage of world exports than it did 25 years ago, China cannot export its way out of its economic problems because the world is not as able to absorb China's exports (See: China’s Export Game Won’t Work This Time, Forbes, April 15, 2024).


US trade chief calls for action to shield EV sector from China
Trump and tariffs on China
Communist China's plan to address its property crisis will do tremendous damage to China's economic prospects

See: Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)

Peter Zeihan on Chinese housing overbuild:

Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back

Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back, Economist, May 16, 2024

China and a potential balance sheet recession

Anti-China hawks

Pro-China doves

USA is an era of "cold peace"/frenemies era and not yet cold war yet

Taiwan

Japan

Japan YouTube channels:

Russia

Russia is a weak major power arguments

File:Weak 2.jpg
In a 2023 interview, the international relations scholar John Mearsheimer said Russia was a "weak great power".[2]

Russia is a former superpower that is striving unsuccessfully to rebuild its lost influence while experiencing decline and a failed state status (See: Will Russia become a failed state within 10 years? Is Russia currently a failed state? Will Russia eventually become a failed state?).

In 2014, the international relations scholar John Mearsheimer said: "Russia is a declining power, and it will only get weaker with time."[4]

In a 2023 interview, the international relations scholar John Mearsheimer said Russia was a "weak great power" (See: Why Russia-Ukraine War May End In A Frozen Conflict & Why US Should Focus On China: John Mearsheimer, 16:09 in the interview). Russia had great difficulty gaining land from the country of Ukraine which has a much smaller population due to Russia's weak military (see: Russian military weaknesses). From superpower to "weak great power" - sad!

Stephen Kotkin: Russia is a relatively weak power: "Stephen Kotkin, a historian at Princeton University, argues that Russia is a "relatively weak great power". He suggests that Russia has a long history of aspiring to great power status, but its capabilities often fall short of those aspirations. This discrepancy, according to Kotkin, leads to a sense of frustration and a tendency to overreach in foreign policy."[17] See also: Russian power in decline

"...Russia has almost always been a relatively weak great power. It lost the Crimean War of 1853–56, a defeat that ended the post-Napoleonic glow and forced a belated emancipation of the serfs. It lost the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–5, the first defeat of a European country by an Asian one in the modern era. It lost World War I, a defeat that caused the collapse of the imperial regime. And it lost the Cold War, a defeat that helped cause the collapse of the imperial regime’s Soviet successor." - Russia’s Perpetual Geopolitics, Stephen Kotkin, Foreign Affairs, 2016

Donald Trump on how the Soviet Union became Russia: "Let me just tell you about Russia. Russia used to be a thing called the Soviet Union. Because of Afghanistan they went bankrupt. They became Russia. Just so you do understand. OK?" "What is essential in war is victory, not prolonged operations." - Sun Tzu. "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." - Sun Tzu

"Russia today is terribly sick. Her people are sick to the point of total exhaustion." - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, Forbes 2012 interview.[18] (In recent times, Russia has experienced economic recessions in 1998, 2008–2009, 2014–2016, and 2022. So his remark was not during bad economic times).

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn on great power politics: "For every country, great power status deforms and harms the national character. I have never wished great power status for Russia, and do not wish it for the United States." - Forbes 2012 interview.[19]

Excellent arguments that Russia is no longer a great power

File:Flag of Russia.png
The flag of Russia

See also: There are good arguments that Russia is no longer a major power

Russia is arguably in a worse position due to the war in Ukraine because: Russia's national sovereign fund has shrunk, the potential market for their gas/oil has shrunk, their demographic/population crisis is more severe, their civilian economy has grown worse (High inflation, growing corporate bankruptcies. Trump called Russia's economy a "disaster". Russia's Innovation Index score has dropped since the war in Ukraine [20]. See: A somber outlook for the Russian economy, 2024 ), the Soviet era stockpile of weapons has shunk, Finland/Sweden joined NATO, and NATO's military budget has ramped up. Any "victory" that Russia achieves in the war in Ukraine will be a pyrrhic victory.

  • What are the arguments that Russia is not a great power?: "Arguments against Russia being a great power focus on its limited economic and technological capabilities, coupled with a history of impulsive foreign policy decisions and internal struggles. While Russia possesses a significant military, it lacks the economic and technological strength of true great powers."

"But once Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashed his war machine, that narrative of Russian power swiftly unraveled. The Ukrainian army, supposedly outgunned and with little chance of resisting conventionally, fought back with brains and ferocity. And Ukrainian civilians, whom many experts thought to be divided over the question of the country’s relationship to Russia, rallied to defend their homeland. Meanwhile, Putin’s military floundered. Its weapons and doctrine proved to be lackluster at best, and its soldiers performed far worse than expected, thanks in part to corruption and poor training. Hundreds of thousands, maybe more than a million, Russian men of military age fled the country to avoid conscription. And just last week, the Wagner paramilitary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin briefly seized control of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and threatened to plunge the country into civil war, sending his mercenary fighters to within 120 miles of Moscow. This stunning revelation of Russian weakness calls into question not just Moscow’s status as a great power but also the very concept of a great power." - Foreign Affairs, 2023[21]

  • Russia Resurrected. Its Power and Purpose in a New Global Order By Kathryn E. Stoner. Publisher: Oxford University Press, Oxford, United Kingdom, 2021. "She argues that Russia is not a great power, in a traditional understanding of the term, but rather an effective disruptor/challenger to the contemporary international system." - How powerful is Russia?
File:Matterhorn public domain.jpg
The Matterhorn

Question: Which is steeper? The faces of the Matterhorn or Russia's rate of decline?

Please see: Russian power in decline

Economic projections out to 2034: Focus-Economics.com: "The Russian economy faces an uncertain future, influenced by deteriorating population dynamics, sanctions, the Ukraine war, and global economic conditions. Modest growth is expected in the near term, but risks abound; tighter sanctions or escalating conflict could lead to renewed economic contraction."[22]

  • Russia's non-operational aircraft carrier (which is Russia's only aircraft carrier), the Admiral Kuznetsov, is the laughing stock of other navies. [23][24]

December 2024 was one of the WORST months for Russian influence in the world

Soviets weakened by Soviet-Afghanistan War and oil prices falling totally collapsed. Mr. Vladimir Putin, will war in Ukraine and lower and lower oil prices cause BIG TROUBLE for Russia?

Russia News

File:A Solzhenitsyn.jpg
"Since then I have spent well nigh 50 years working on the history of our revolution, but if I were asked today to formulate as concisely as possible the main cause of the ruinous revolution that swallowed up some 60 million of our people, I could not put it more accurately than to repeat, men have forgotten God. That's why all this has happened." - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

Church attendance rates in Russia are low, and the level of religiosity in the country has been declining in recent years.[3]


  • John Mearsheimer - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
  • Steve Turley - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
  • Dmitry Orlov - YouTube - Dmitry Orlov is reasonable person overall in some ways and intelligent, leans Russia (American engineer and writer raised in Russia until the age of 12. Witnesswed Collapse of Soviet Union)




Blogs:

General info on Russia

File:Butter.jpg
I used to be more interested in Russia, but the ButterGate scandal put a damper on that.

Russian President Vladimir Putin says that Russia's war economy is well balanced to supply both guns and butter, but the price of butter itself is now soaring as surging inflation distorts parts of the economy. The price of a block of butter has risen by 25.7 per cent since December, according to the state statistics service.

'The Armageddon with butter is escalating,' Russian economists claim on Telegram.

See: Butter prices soar in Russia amid surging inflation in war economy, CBC News, November 2, 2024 and Russians Resort to Stealing Butter Amid Shortages, Newsweek, October 29, 2024

Classic video: Tucker Carlson in a Russian supermarket talking about how great it was and how good the prices were - a year before Russians were stealing butter and war-related inflation caused sky-high inflation:Tucker Carlson Shopping in Russian Grocery Store (Full)

Leading/insightful historians on Russia

Sergey Radchenko: (He leans Western):

Sergey Radchenko- Google News

Odds of Trump ending the war in Ukraine in the first 90 days of office

Polymarket, January 7, 2024: 30% chance of Trump ending war in first 90 days of office.[25]

No deal:

  • Why should Putin negotiate? by the historian Sergey Radchenko, October 2024. He might be wrong due to financial pressure on Russia, but this is an unknown. Sergey S. Radchenko is a Soviet-born British-Russian historian. He tries to put himself in Putin's mindset as far as what Putin wants to accomplish, but he is not an economist so that is a shortcoming. Ultimately, authoritarian regimes are opaque as far as decision making and so "mind reading" is of limited value.
  • The international relations scholar John Mearsheimer hypothesizes that Putin wants to make Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump state where Russia takes 40-45% of the territory.[26] Rump state: "Any politico-geographic entity (a state) that is the remnant of a previous, larger one that has been broken up."[27]
  • Vladimir Putin does not want a peace deal. He wants to destroy Ukraine., Atlantic Council, December 2024 (Argues Putin does not want a peace deal and that the Istanbul 2022 peace terms of Russia were unreasonable) - Tough to do mind reading of autocratic regimes like Putin. Maybe financial pressures will cause Putin to agree to a peace deal or maybe Trump's more openness to a deal than Biden will cause Putin to be more willing to negotiate.

Deal:

Stephen Kotkin (He leans Western):

File:Seemingly weak, little girl Judo practioner tosses Vladimir Putin the floor.png
Seemingly weak, little girl Judo practioner tosses Vladimir Putin the floor![5]

Even the sissy boy Barack Obama wasn't thrown to the floor by a little girl.

See: Seemingly weak, little, girl Judo practioner tosses Vladimir Putin to the floor- video

For more information, please see: Vladimir Putin understimates small opponents - big time!

Lectures and articles:

Richard Sakwa: (He leans pro-Russia)

Various Scenarios for Russia's future

Russia becoming a failed state
File:Massive sewage geyser.png
Skyscraper-high sewage plume of feces erupts in Moscow.[4]

See: Russia's sewage system crisis
Decline of Russia

"The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is also falling apart. Initially founded as a counterweight to NATO, it has long been exposed as an attempted revanche to return control of former SSRs to Moscow. Uzbekistan left the alliance 12 years ago, and this year, Armenia announced its plans to leave. The loss of Armenia will force Moscow to abandon two more vital military bases and diminish its position in the South Caucasus." -Vladimir Putin Is Digging His Own Grave in Ukraine, December 11, 2024

Middle East:

Quote: "What good is Russia as a partner if it cannot save its oldest client in the Middle East from a ragtag band of militias? Besides the operational setback, it is also a diplomatic and reputational blow.” - Eugene Rumer, director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, Bogged Down in Ukraine, Russia Pays a Price in Syria, NYT, December 8, 2024

  • Before the Soviet Union fell one of the early signs of this was its greater and greater inability to project power over time (Revolutions of 1989). Putin's Russia is exhibiting a slow decline, but Putin's arrogance is in public denialism about this matter (Syria, Dagestan, harder to project power in Africa, Georgian protests, Armenia, Moldova and South Caucuses [28][29][30][31] ). Putin's arrogance has caused his inner circle to shrink. Pyotr Kurzin and Jason Smart (Correspondent at Large at the Kyiv Post) discussion about the waning power of Russia, particularly in the context of its military and economic challenges, and impact on Assad of Syria. Debate about the intricate geopolitical landscape surrounding Russia, Ukraine, and Syria and the growing role of Turkey, and the implications of Putin's detachment from reality. Then we shifted to the potential u-turns in US foreign policy under Trump and how these changes could impact Russia's standing on the global stage. [32]
Russia's decline and some Roman Empire decline parallels
File:Russian oil rig in Siberia.png
Russian oil rig collapses in Siberia.

The blaze is the latest in a series of fires and explosions that have plagued Russia's energy infrastructure over the past two years.[5]

Russia currently has a big labor shortage in its gas/oil industry.[6]
2025: Russian government forest mismanagement
  • Russia faces significant challenges in managing its vast forest resources, including illegal logging, unsustainable practices, and inadequate enforcement of environmental laws. These issues contribute to deforestation and biodiversity loss. While Russia has efforts to combat illegal logging and promote sustainable practices, challenges remain in ensuring effective forest conservation and management. It is estimated that around 20% of the Russian wood exported to China is felled illegally, helping Russia to become a global leader in forest depletion. Furthermore, corruption is allegedly widespread in the Russian timber industry.[33]

“In theory, controlled burning can only be carried out under certain, rather strict conditions…In practice, there is not enough manpower and resources to carry out controlled burning on large areas while observing all the necessary safety measures,” forestry expert Alexei Yaroshenko explained in a post for the Zemlya Kasaetsa Kazhdogo environmental project."[34] See: Russia's population collapse and Russia is dying out. The war in Ukraine is making Russia's demographic crisis even worse

Russia's decline and some Soviet Union decline parallels

Russian Stagnation:

1. "TsMAKP, a Russian think tank, warned last month that Russia's failure to tame inflation was driving the country toward stagflation, a scenario in which growth is low and inflation high, and which is harder to escape than a recession.

"The overall trend is pretty grim," said Kolyandr. "I would say it's overall stagnation akin to what the Soviet Union had at the beginning of the 1980s."

The Soviet Union was dissolved in 1991." - Russia's economy is entering a year of pain in 2025, Business Insider December 2024

2. Putin Debate | Richard Sakwa | Oxford Union, video, 2020 (Talks about stagnation in Russia)

Soviet Union stagnation:

Russia and technological backwardness

Russian neo-colonialism and imperialism

Articles:

Quotes:

Russia's entering stormy, uncharted, economic waters

"According to the Russian Central Bank, over $253 billion in private capital has left the country, and estimates suggest that up to one million highly skilled workers have emigrated, constituting about 10% of Russia's technology workforce and a third of its millionaires​, according to the Financial Times." - Russian Economy in 'Stormy Uncharted Waters,' Putin's Banking Chief Says, 2024

Potential stagflation or deep recession for Russia in 2025

"The Bank of Russia’s statements indicate the central bank sees the economy on the cusp of stagflation. Despite sanctions and labor shortages binding output growth, corporations and consumers don’t expect price increases to slow. They also don’t perceive double digit borrowing rates as particularly restrictive. The central bank is right to be worried — we expect inflation to continue running above policymakers’ 4% target, while GDP growth is likely to slow to 1%-1.5% in 2025." — Alex Isakov, Russia economist[35]

  • Quagmire or catastrophe: Experts are once again predicting the imminent collapse of the Russian economy, but how likely is it to happen in 2025, Novaya Gazeta Europe, December 26, 2024

Russia and sales of natural gas:

Fertility rate and demographic crisis relative to Russia:

Videos:

Alcoholism rising in Russia due to psychological tension related to the war in Ukraine - alcohol consumption is at a 9 year high:

  • But as supply in Russia has dwindled, demand has shot up. As db reported, the increased demand for alcoholic drinks is partly due to “psychological tension” caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. In 2023, the number of litres of alcohol consumed per person per year in Russia reached a nine-year high to eight litres, and may even be higher than that volume. Currently the per capita sales of absolute alcohol are growing in Russia. This clearly indicates an increase in consumption. This is how the population responds to difficulties,” said Evgeny Andreev, a leading researcher at the Centre for Demographic Research of the Russian Economic School (NES).[36].

Tremendous cost of wounded and PTSD/alcoholic veterans post war in Ukraine: Wounded Veterans, Wounded Economy: The Personnel Costs of Russia’s War


Will Russian assets be seized?

The limits of the Russian military:


File:512px-Changing the guards kremlin.jpeg
Goose stepping changing of the guards in Russia at the Kremlin in 2006.[6]

In 2014, international relations scholar John Mearsheimer said: "Russia is a declining power, and it will only get weaker with time."[7]

Russia's economic problems

Russia economy and commentary by economists and financial people

Sergei Guriev (Economist):

Articles by Sergei Guriev:

Videos by Sergei Guriev:

Books by Sergei Guriev:

Alexandra Prokopenko:

Alexandra Prokopenko (Expert on Russian economic and monetary policy and the decision-making. From 2017 until early 2022 Alexandra worked at the Central Bank of Russia and at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow. She is a former columnist for Vedomosti. She is a graduate of Moscow State University and holds an MA in Sociology from the University of Manchester:

Key articles by Alexandra Prokopenko:

Andrey Illarionov

Andrey Illarionov is a Russian economist and former senior policy advisor to Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, from April 2000 to December 2005. Since April 2021, he is a senior fellow at the non-governmental organization Center for Security Policy, which is based out of Washington, D.C. in the United States.

Video:

Sergey Aleksashenko:

Sergey Aleksashenko is a Russian economist and former government official. He was the deputy finance minister and first deputy chairman of the board of the Central Bank of Russia from 1995 to 1998.[37]

Alexander Kolyandr - Financial analyst:

Vladislav Inozemtsev:

Vladislav Leonidovich Inozemtsev is a Russian academician who is the director of the Moscow-based Centre for Research on Post-Industrial Societies, a nonprofit think tank. He is a professor and the chair at the Department of World Economy, Faculty of Public Governance, Moscow State Lomonosov University.[38]


Anders Aslund:


Jeffrey Sonnenfeld


Russian war machine and its sensitivity to oil prices:

It is argued that only a slump in oil prices will stop Russia's war efforts (See: Only an oil slump can stop Vladimir Putin, Reuters, 2024).

Russian oil: Lower production and lower profits:

Economic problems:

Russian culture overview

International relations:

Culture:

Other cultural overview:

Anti-Russian sentiments:

Collapse of the USSR and post period:

Stephen Kotkin:

Religiosity percentages of Russians:

Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future and The true impact of a year of war on Russia's economy

Contemporary Russia:

Vladimir Putin

Similarities to Satan: The devil and Putin are both are involved in stealing, killing and destroying

Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?

Maps of Russia:

Ukraine:

Russians destroying churches and engaging in religious discrimination in Ukraine:

Russia's fertility rate and demographic crisis

"So far, Moscow has demonstrated long-term adeptness in its policies toward immigrants, relaxing regulations when they were most needed. For instance, it admitted more immigrants after the pandemic and during the war, gradually simplified the rules for granting citizenship, and compensated for the natural population decline through naturalisation. This flexible approach, regardless of the current social climate in the country, is likely to continue. Although this will not reverse the negative trends, it will significantly mitigate them to prevent a demographic collapse. However, Russia’s plans could be thwarted by a severe economic downturn, which would discourage immigrants from Central Asia and the Caucasus from choosing Russia as a destination for economic migration."[45]

"An increase in beatings, vandalism and episodes of racism against Central Asian migrants has been reported in Russia since the deadly attacks at Moscow's Crocus City Hall last Friday."[46]

Russian diaspora

"A large Russian diaspora (sometimes including Russian-speaking non-Russians), estimated at 25 million people, has developed all over the world, with notable numbers in the United States, Germany, Brazil, and Canada."[47] See also: Russian diaspora

Post Ukraine invasion Russian diaspora:

Russia is experiencing a large brain drain:

Will Jews Continue To Flee Russia in Large Numbers?


Many high-income people are fleeing Russia:


File:The places that millionaires are leaving 2022 to 2023.png
The places that millionares are leaving in 2023-2024. Russian is 4rth on the list.

Template:Clear

American views of Putin and Russia:

"Americans overwhelmingly rate Putin negatively: 88% say they do not have confidence in the Russian president to do the right thing regarding world affairs, with two-thirds saying they have no confidence in him at all. A similar share lacked confidence in him in 2023 (90%)." - Pew Research, May 8, 2024[48]

"As Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, Americans remain very negative toward Russia: 91% have an unfavorable view of the country, including 62% who say their views are very unfavorable. Just 7% in the U.S. have a favorable view of Russia. This is a similar level of negativity compared with last year’s survey, when 92% of Americans were negative toward Russia." - Pew Research, Pew Research, May 10, 2023[49]

Russia's labor shortage

Post Western World notion

Decline of nations:

Map of world by population size

Peter Zeihan's view

The historian Stephen Kotkin on 5 scenarios for Russia's future

Will Russia ever have good relations with Europe again? If so, will it happen relatively/somewhat soon or ever?

Con view

Cultures tend to change slow.

The website Cultural Front notes: Template:Cquote

Pro-view

Russia loses a lot of arm sales now and in the future due to badly designed equipment

See also: Russian military weakness

Videos:

March 26, 2025: Ukrainian drones hitting Russian oil refineries cause fuel prices in Russia to 'skyrocket' with a 14% rise - 'Worst in 13 years'.[50] This is amidst the cost of ordinary goods also soaring due to Russia's war related high inflation.[51]

Russia's online cheerleaders often taut how superior Russia's air defenses are, but this situation has really caught Russia's cheerleaders flat-footed.

800px

Template:Clear

Ukraine

Peace agreement or ceasefire agreement:

The odds of a peace agreement or ceasefire do not look promising, but if anyone could make it happen, it would be Trump.

Also, Putin needs oil revenue to fund the war and the outlook for the price of oil in 2025 is too tough to call.[52]

BRICS

2024:

BRICS are not agreeing on a common currency so it's not much of an international trade organization.

BRICS is a China lead/dominated organization subsidized by China. China accounts for about 52% to 70% of the BRICS group's total GDP. If China keeps having economic problems, BRICS probably doesn't have much a future.

With the addition of new members in BRICS+, the group of emerging powers will be more globally representative ­— but also face more internal divisions.[53] For example, "In a major setback to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Brazil has decided against joining Beijing’s multi-billion-dollar initiative becoming the second country after India in the BRICS bloc not to endorse the mega project."[54]

China and India's historical disagreements regarding membership expansion will shape the prospects of aspiring BRICS countries and the organization's future.

2019 source: "China is playing the leading role in this process, as a main investor and importer of FDI (foreign direct investment) and trade partner in BRICS group... Trade and investment cooperation of China with other BRICS countries exerts very strong impact on the development of their economies. China continue to deepen its economic ties with other BRICS countries and open up its financial market to serve as a cushion against rising global uncertainty. Development of Intra-BRICS trade and investment cooperation is very important in the context of trade war imposed by the USA against China." But China is having economic weakness in 2024.[55]

Articles/resources:

"As China’s economy decelerates, concern lingers among BRICS members over whether its Chinese powerhouse can rally the bloc and revive growth to sustain the bloc’s future relevance." - BRICS by 2049: A China-Dependent Counter to the West?, December 2024

Africa

Better demographics and a country being a stronger power

See also: Essay: Size of a working age population in a country and its correlation with national GNP in advanced economies. The ability of the United States to attract some of the best and brightest workers in the world

"Demographic factors, including population size, age structure, and migration patterns, significantly impact a nation's economic and geopolitical strength. A country's demographic profile can influence its labor force, productivity, and capacity to support its population. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for comprehending the rise and fall of world powers."[56]

USA and demographics and it being favorable to other major powers

Russia's is projected to be demographically very weak later in the 21st century

  • "Russia’s demographic decline is accelerating, with the population giving birth to fewer babies during the first quarter of 2025 than at any time in the last two centuries... Demographers claim that unless the Kremlin commits to rapid economic growth and provides far more benefits to women who have children, predictions of demographic disaster in the 2040s will come to pass (URA.ru, April 24)." - Russia’s Demographic Problems Set Stage for Future Political Challenges, 2025
  • Russia's demographic crisis - 2025 - video playlist, video playlist (Russia's military will get weaker over time. Also, given Russia's history of sending out human wave attacks, a much bigger demographic crisis in the 2040s and beyond will hinder Russia's ability to fight)



File:United States flag in the wind.jpg
The United States will likely be the strongest country for the foreseeable future and this is due to the strengths of the USA and partly due to the weaknesses of China and Russia.

Please see: The United States will be the leading power in the world for the foreseeable future

Countries by population

World economics and trends

List of countries by stock market capitalization

Global weekly economic update

U.S. Share of the Global Economy Over Time

GNP by country

Per capita:

Total GNP:

2023

2024: Stephen Kotkin on international relations and geopolitics

World News

World news Western perspective:

News various countries:

World News - NonWestern perspective:

Non-Western international politics YouTube channels perspective:

World news. Data-driven UK YouTube video channel:

Israel

Times of Israel:

CBN News:

General:

  • JNS (BTW, JNS is also critical on ADL's Greenblatt woke stuff), INN, and at times center leaning I24, or left leaning - Ynet or TOI. ILH is center leaning. Note. JPost is usually center leaning when it states it's by "Jerusalem Post Staff," but it often posts pure Reuters stuff.

Israel and prophecy/Bible/miracles

Modern Israel fulfills biblical prophecy:

Prophecies about the land of Israel fulfilled in our lifetime: Is Modern Israel Fulfilling Prophecy? and Is the modern state of Israel the fullfillment of prophecy and Unveiling the mysteries of Israel: Four biblical prophecies being fulfilled right now.

Miracles

Six Day War

USA foreign policy: Interventionalism vs. Isolationism

Trends:

Pointless and costly wars such as the Iraq War and War in Afghanistan are very expensive. The renowned military strategist and general Sun Tzu wrote: "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." Among the USA public, a less interventionalist and more isolationist sentiment is growing - particularly among young people (See: Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?). Of course, anything taken to an extreme can be a bad thing. The United States should stay engaged in the world - especially when it comes to the use of skillful diplomacy. At the same time, sometimes wars are unavoidable, but when a nation engages in a war, it should be a just war (See: Just War Theory).

Also, as the USA does more and more onshoring of its companies, there will be less and less of an incentive to be the world's policeman on the high seas (See: Deglobalization: The US Navy's Withdrawl as Global Protector).

NATO

As of 2024, the USA pays 16% of NATO's total budget.[57]

  • NATO - Google sites

Expansion of NATO

The promise to not expand NATO to the East was made to the Soviet Union - not Russia.

Did the USA promise not to expand in 1990? No, it did not view:

Historian Mary E. Sarotte on the issue of whether the West promised no NATO expansion:

  • Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate by Mary E. Sarotte. ‎Yale University Press; First Edition (November 30, 2021)

Did the USA promise not to expand in 1990? Middle of the road view:

Did the USA promise not to expand in 1990? Yes, it did view

Finland joining NATO

File:Flag of Finland.png
Flag of Finland

Putin's invasion of Ukraine caused formerly neutral Finland to join NATO.

Sweden joining NATO

Formally neutral Sweden joins NATO after Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

Germany building up its military. Germany's MASSIVE Military Comeback

China and Christianity

What would a post-communist China look like?

World map

World map by population

Major power politics in the 21st century for the foreseeable future

John Mearsheimer's view

Mearsheimer on US defense establishment likely to learn from the war in Ukraine

Mearsheimer argues that liberalism pulls a society apart due to disagreement on first principles and that is why it preaches tolerance, but nationalism is a glue that helps hold a society together.[59]. Mearsheimer says liberals don't like realist school of politics because it goes against the grain of idealism and they like to pretend that liberal democracies never engage in realpolitik type behavior.[60]

Background info that Mearsheimer doesn't discuss: China is in economic decline, but it might attack Taiwan to distract from domestic economic problems. But such a war would hurt it economically since it is a trading nation and the Chinese appear to know that. Chinese threats of attacking Taiwan may be political kabuki theatre for its domestic population to distract from its interal problems.

Limitations/problems of Mearsheimer's view

Peter Zeihan's view

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio

Changing civilizational world order

Anti-American axis (China/Russia/Iran/North Korea

Globalization of trade

Books

Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda

Imperialism, interventionism and isolationism

Military

Top 10 militaries by strength

Rankings of the world's top militaries:

Articles may not take into account alliances such as NATO, Aukus, etc. NATO has a provision that an attack on one country is an attack on all of the countries. See: NATO articles and videos

The U.S.-Japan Alliance (日米同盟, Nichi-Bei Dōmei) is a military alliance between Japan and the United States of America, as codified in the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, which was first signed in 1951, took effect in 1952, and was amended in 1960.[62]

Articles and resources:

Military, wars, mass murder and expense

File:WWII collage.JPG
WWII photo montage

"The level of war in the world seems to have risen to 1989 (post-WWII) peak levels and holding, ending the pacific 1989-2006 era. Does this contradict the Decline of Violence (Pinker) / End of History (Fukuyama) theses, or is it just a blip?". - Professor Eric Kaufmann, Twitter/X.[64], See: War and Peace.

Ferguson's law

See: Ferguson's law

China:

2024: Federal debt 90.1% federal debt to GDP. This is projected to increase to 111.1% over the next five years.[65]

In 2024, China's total government debt to GDP, which includes national/local debt, was estimated to be over 300% and local governments' debt is a major contributor to this total. However, many financial analyst believe that China inflates its GDP. The January 23, 2024 South China Morning Post article China claims ‘biggest corruption in statistical sphere’ amid fake data crackdown indicates: "The accuracy of China's economic data has long been questioned, as many feel there is a gap between reality on the ground and the official figures, and Beijing has intensified efforts to crack down on data fraud in recent years amid efforts to dispel doubts."

Video which mentions Ferguson's law and has the historians Stephen Kotkin and Nial Ferguson: The Age of Empire Strikes Back: Stephen Kotkin on Trump, Wrestling, and the Use of American Power

USA debt:

National debt: 2024, National debt: In 2024, the US debt to GDP ratio was 123% and most of it was owed by its citizens. U.S. national debt was $35.46 trillion.

The debt of USA local governments was $2.04 trillion.

War, debt and the collapse of empires

Percent of wars that ended in a negotiated solution

"Historically, wars end with either a complete military victory, a ceasefire, or a negotiated peace settlement. According to The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, only 16 percent of wars between 1946 and 2005 have ended in a negotiated solution. Among these peace settlements, 37 percent led to renewed conflict, often within just two years. Negotiations tend to be most successful when parties successfully establish a baseline of trust, address the root causes of the conflict, or provide a framework for future nonviolent resolution. Further, measures such as publicizing aspects of the negotiation process and involving trusted mediators can increase transparency and help insulate the peace process from potential external disruptions, increasing the likelihood of reaching an agreement."[66]

"Nearly 40 percent of peace agreements since 1975 have collapsed within five years of their inception. Whether war breaks out again or spoilers set back the process, many agreements simply don’t last long after they’ve been signed."[67]

How long do wars last?

Wars start out as wars of maneuver. If a war a war of maneuver doesn't achieve victory in 6 months, then it most cases it turns into a war of attrition (Wars of attrition are more common than insurgencies after a war).[68]

Wars are ended by removing an enemies will to fight and/or ability to fight (Productive capacity)[69]

  • "Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." - Sun Tzu
  • "What is essential in war is victory, not prolonged operations." - Sun Tzu
  • "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." - Sun Tzu

How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics:

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies article How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine Template:Cquote

File:Georgetown 2.jpg
Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[8]

Template:Clear

Just war vs. realist view of war

Winning the peace vs. winning a war

Military

Wars and warlike natures

Studies:

Democratic peace theory and related matters

Mass murder

Right-wing death squads vs. Left-wing murderous regimes

Military concepts

File:Clausewitz.jpg
Carl von Clausewitz

Military competence and incompetence

  • Task and purpose (Chris Cappy is a former US Army infantryman and Iraq Veteran. I cover geopolitics, history, weapon systems and all things military related — I do this from a veteran's perspective.).

Military competence

  • Deliberate Discomfort: How U.S. Special Operations Forces Overcome Fear and Dare to Win by Getting Comfortable Being Uncomfortable by Jason B.A. Van Camp and Andy Symonds. Ballast Books (February 18, 2020)

Military incompetence

  • On the Psychology of Military Incompetence by Norman F Dixon. Basic Books; Illustrated edition (May 31, 2016)
  • Military Incompetence: Why the American Military Doesn't Win (American Century) by Richard A. Gabriel. Hill & Wang Pub; First Edition (January 1, 1985)

Are we headed towards WW3? It's not likely - at least not yet

Victories in war are not necessarily won by winning battles. Wars can be won by eliminating the enemies will to fight which is a critical factor in winning wars

File:Sun Tzu portrait.jpg
"Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting."- Sun Tzu

In the Vietnam War, the Vietnamese consistently lost the bigger battles and the U.S. General Westmoreland was obsessed about body counts that showed the USA was "winning". However, although the Tet Offensive was not ultimately not a successful operation militarily, it did win on the propaganda front because it showed the American public that the Vietcong were not on their last legs. Specifically, the Tiet Offensive showed that the Vietmanese still had power to oppose the USA via a large operation and as a result of this the American public soured on the war. One does not win wars solely by winning battles. Breaking the will of the enemy is a key component as far as how wars are won (And wars are generally governed by politics[71]). Near the end of the Vietnam War at the peace negotiations, the American officer Harry Summers said to a Vietcong colonel that the USA won on the battlefield and the Vietcong did not. The Vietcong colonel replied back, that's true, but it is also irrelevant.[72] It was the political context that was more important in the Vietnam War than the military context. But ultimately the the USA won the peace in Vietnam as evidenced by all the Coca Cola now being sold in Vietnam and the current cordial relations between the USA and Vietnam.

One of the things the Russians may face in Ukraine if they win a pyrrhic victory is a Ukrainian insurgency that wears down the Russians. Most insurgencies are not successful and last about 10 years.[73][74] However, The Troubles insurgency in Northern Ireland lasted about 30 years and perhaps the same could happen in Ukraine due to the bitterness of the conflict and due to the intensity of Ukrainian nationalism. This may come into play because of two factors: First, Russia defector reveals 'majority' of people inside Kremlin unhappy with war in Ukraine, ABC News video, July 2023. This shows that some of the will to fight in the Kremlin may have been diminished (But Putin likely calls the shots so this issue is not a definitive point). Secondly, as far as the Kursk invasion, the inability of the Russian state to protect its borders shows this: Russia has failed as a state, Modern Diplomacy, 2023 and Almost half of global strategists think Russia could become a failed state within the next 10 years, Fortune magazine, January 23, 2023 and Will Russia become a failed state within 10 years? Is Russia currently a failed state? Will Russia eventually become a failed state?

"Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." - Sun Tzu

Sanctions have a poor record in effectiveness with unintended consequences

International agreements

International agreements often fail to achieve their intended results

While international agreements certainly have their place and peace/peacemaking are always a good thing to pursue, research indicates that most international agreements fail to achieve their aims (International treaties have mostly failed to produce their intended effects, PNAS, August 1, 2022, 119 (32) e2122854119 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2122854119). Given men's frequent cases of poor thinking/planning and the sinfulness of human nature, this is not entirely surprising.

Also, as far as the Russian/Ukrainian peace negotiations, agreements are only as good as the trustworthiness of the people signing them. And unfortunately, Russia/Putin/Biden Administration are all corrupt and shown HERE as can be seen in points #1, #2 and #3.

And when I look at the Minsk Agreements, former agreements and promises mentioned below, I see Russia/Ukraine/West breaking agreements/promises. Also, as far as the Minsk Agreements, as can be seen below, Russia appears to be the biggest violaters of the Minsk Agreements, with Ukraine breaking the agreements also.

Russia, West, Ukraine and the West all acting badly in terms of Minsk Agreements, agreements and promises:

Russia acting badly:

TUESDAY, JUNE 7, 2016, U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations: "Russia has acted contrary to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, and the Incidents at Sea Agreement. Russia has altered the human rights landscape within its own country, decreasing democracy and begging questions about the future of governance, not just in Moscow, but across the Federation. Moreover, Russia has joined the civil war in Syria and begun militarizing the Arctic."[9]

West and Ukraine acting badly:

World politics, peak oil consumption, technology, forecasts, China and Russia

China, economic decline, green energy adoption and oil consumption:

USA's oil production:

  • Why U.S. Oil Production Is 6.5% Ahead Of Last Year’s Record Pace, September 2024. Ongoing growth in U.S. oil output remains a key driver of the global energy market. U.S. crude oil production will almost certainly set a second consecutive record this year, reflecting strong demand and advances in extraction technologies, particularly in shale oil. If Trump is elected, USA oil production may further improve.

Saudi oil production:

Nuclear power growing due to technological advances:

Short-term oil price forecast:

Forecast of world oil consumption:

Exxon Mobil forecast:

OPEC Forecasts:

Notes

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