Difference between revisions of "User:Achoicenotanecho/IR"

Latest revision as of 15:04, 30 October 2024

Politics

International relations and geopolitics YouTube channels, websites and podcasts

International relations:

• International relations course

Geopolitics:

• A Geopolitical Tour of the World
• Geopolitics introduction

Geopolitics and Empire

Geopolitics and Empire - Features people from the right, center and left (Conducts interviews with prominent international experts on a wide-range of topics. Past guests have included diplomats, government officials, whistleblowers, soldiers, spies, economists, academics, scientists, wealthy investors, dissidents, journalists, and musicians.):

• Geopolitics & Empire

• Geopolitics and Empire - Apple Podcast

• Geopolitics and Empire - Soundcloud

Burning archive:

• The Burning Archive, YouTube (Former government worker who has studied world history)
• Burning Archive substack, Substack

Popular International relations and geopolitics:

• Zeihan on Geopolitics - Pro-Western

• Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics (YouTube) - Pyotr Kurzin is a British-Russian expat who lives in Washington DC and graduated from Johns Hopkins Univesity.

• Geopolitical Futures - George Friedman

• Caspian Report, Azerbaijan

• Icarus Project

• John Mearsheimer's substack

Nikola Mikovic - Serbian (Tries to be objective realistic)

• Nikola Mikovic - Twitter

• Nikola Mikovic - Muckrack

• Nikola Mikovic - Diplomaticourier.com

• Nikola Mikovic - Lowy Institute

• Nikola Mikovic - Arab News

• Nikola Mikovic, American Purpose

Pro-Western YouTube channels:

• Foreign Affairs

• The Economist

• Peter Zeihan

• Network 20/20

• RANE (Related to Stratfor)

• Stratfor website

• StratNewsGlobal

• Geopolitical Futures

• Centre for Geopolitics - UK

• Gefira Channel - Netherlands

• Foreign Policy Research Institute

• Geopolitics Daily - Greece, Very Pro-Western

• Foreign Policy Association

• Geopolitico - Run by Infographics channel guy

Pro-Western podcasts:

• The Truth of the Matter - Center for Strategic and International Studies
• Brookings Institution Podcast (Current affairs, tech news, economic news and Africa)
• The World in 30 Minutes - European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
• ECFR on Air
• Economist Podcast
• First Person - Foreign Policy Podcast]

India:

• Amit Sengupta
• DEF - TALKS by Aadi - India focused
• World Affairs
• WION
• Crux
• Study IQ

Pro-Russia, semi anti-Western, anti-Western or pessimistic about the West/USA

• The Duran

• Glenn Diesen substack and Glen Diesen - YouTube

• Dialogue Works - Pro-Russia leaning

• Alexander Mercouris

• Alex Christoforou

• Neutrality Studies

• The New Atlas

Glen Diesen videos:

• The Impending Economic Meltdown: Investor Legend Jim Rogers, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen

International relations websites - Pro-Western

• Foreign Affairs

• The Diplomat - Asia Pacific - Affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies

• Foreign Policy (Founded by Samuel Huntington, but endorsed Hillary Clinton)

• Foreign Policy Research Institute

Major powers: Western World, USA, European nations, China and Russia, World events and world history

• Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century by Mark N. Katz, George Mason University, 2018

Burning Archive

• Burning Archive - YouTube

• Burning Archive substack - Substack

• Burning Archive podcast

• Burning Achive Apple Podcast - Apple Podcast

David Woo Unbound

• David Woo Unbound, YouTube
• David Woo Unbound, Website

Peter Zeihan

• Zeihan on geopolitics
• Peter Zeihan - Patreon

Stephen Kotkin lectures

• Stephen Kotkin - Google search

• Stephen Kotkin - YouTube search

• Stephen Kotkin: Turning Points: Yesterday’s World, and Tomorrow’s

• Steve Kotkin - Sphere of influence lectures - 3 part series

The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

• The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) - website (Based in Warsaw)
• Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) - YouTube, YouTube (Based in Warsaw)

World Politics Review

Combines realist/liberal internationalist school perspective. Written by several hundred contributors from around the world, experts in a variety of disciplines.

• World Politics Review, website
• World Politics Review, YouTube

Adam Tooze

• Adam Tooze - Google News
• Adam Tooze - Substack
• Adam Tooze - Amazon

Emmanuel Todd

• Emmanuel Todd - Contrarian French historian, anthropologist, demographer, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies in Paris.

The changing character of war - Peter Zeihan

• Peter Zeihan | The Changing Character of War, Peter Zeihan

Current state of the world in terms of polarity and international relations

Biggest mistakes of view of international politics in terms of distortions are these 3: Geography is destiny (Mackinder), world is simply great power politics (Mearsheimer) and cycles of history (Turchin). See: Three mistakes geopolitics makes about history (Mackinder, Mearsheimer, Turchin). Better way to look at things is look at specific/unique circumstances. Theories/ideology should not trump reality/specific/unique history.

World is currently a mix of nationalism/cultures/global trade and political blocks (West vs. China/Russia/Iran/North Korea. Also, nonaligned countries. USA is still the strongest country in terms of economics, etc.).

• How ‘Reglobalization’ (nationalism/political blocks/world trade) Is Changing the World)

Polarity (International relations)

• Polarity - International relations

Bipolar:

• The myth of multipolarity. What do the terms unipolar, bipolar and multipolar mean as far as international relations?

• The Myth of Multipolarity, American Power’s Staying Power, Foreign Affairs, April 18, 2023

• No, the World Is Not Multipolar, Foreign Affairs, September 22, 2023

• Multipolarity: What Is It Good For? (Discussion of the above Foreign Affairs article The Myth of Multipolarity, 2023)

• Essay: The 2023 BRICS Summit was a bunch of hoopla. We still don't live in a multipolar world.

• The multipolarity thesis: the verdict of Unhedged and Chartbook, FT, 2023 (Argues multipolarity is exaggerated. Focuses on financial)

• Why has the West been so successful? (Stephen Kotkin - Multipolar world is nonsense)

Middle Ground:

• Prospects for a multipolar world order, GS, 2023 (Liechtenstein based)
• 'A Multipolar World With Bipolar Features', video, Stratfor, 2023
• In Defense of Multipolarity, INTERNATIONALE POLITIK QUARTERLY (IPQ), Nov 17, 2023, Germany's leading foreign affairs magazine, offering a Berlin view on foreign affairs.

Multiple views discussed:

• The Long unipolar moment?, Foreign Affairs, 2023 (Article with counter-response) - Focuses on multiple dimensions, etc.

• Assumption Testing: Multipolarity is more dangerous than bipolarity for the United States, October 23, 2023

Multipolar:

• Yes, the World Is Multipolar, and that isn’t bad news for the United States. - Foreign Policy, 2023

• A multipolar world can benefit both US and China: ex-FM George Yeo, The Star, 2023 (Singapore)

• US needs to accept it’s a multipolar world and work with China, South China Morning Post, 2023

• Piece by piece, the BRICS really are building a multipolar world, Atlantic Council, 2023

Focuses on the rise of non-state actors and the state having less power:

• The new age of multipolar, 5D war against the West has begun, The Australian, 2023 (See also: The Fate of the State by MARTIN VAN CREVELD)

Western World

• Why the West Won’t Collapse

USA

Economy:

• USA Composite Leading Index
• USA Leading Index
• USA/Western economic indicators
• US economy - Google News search
• US economy - YouTube search
• US debt
• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)

US economic outlook:

• US economic outlook - Google News
• US economic outlook - Google search
• US economic outlook - YouTube

US long term economic outlook:

• US long term economic outlook - Google Search

USA 2030s economic depression:

• 2030s Great Depression (If the USA sees a Great Depression in the 2030s, it will likely affect the whole world. USA 26% of the global economy in 2023 in nominal terms, and about 15.5% in PPP terms.[1])

Articles, leading power:

• These Are the 5 Reasons Why the U.S. Remains the World’s Only Superpower
• I’ve Experienced This Cultural Moment Before … in Russia - Decline of the USA and Christian response

USA's power relative to other nations and the aging populations in the major powers:

• A Geriatric Peace? The Future of U.S. Power in a World of Aging Populations, 2007, Abstract

Pessimistic view:

• Pessimistic view

US/China power competition

• US/China power competition

Canada

• Trudeau's Dystopia: How the Woke Conquered Canada. (Prof. Eric Kaufmann)
• Rebel News - Right-wing
• National Post - Right-wing
• CBC News: The National - Mainstream
• CBC News

Europe

European News:

• The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) - The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) is the research division of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Europe, a leading American graduate school offering advanced degrees in international relations, international affairs and global risk.

• TLDR Euronews YouTube channel
• Breitbart - Europe
• Europe - Bing news
• France 24 - Europe
• Politico Europe
• Europe - Euronews
• Europe - Google News

Other:

• EU records lowest birthrate amid a steady 60-year decline
• Why is Europe losing the will to breed?- Irish Times, 2016
• David Harsanyi – On Busting the Myth of European Superiority
• Everything You Hear About Europe is Wrong
• David Harsanyi: “Eurotrash”—Rejecting the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent
• David Harsanyi, Author of "Eurotrash" on The Interview with Hugh Hewitt

Europe's anti-Americanism post start of Russia vs. Ukraine War:

• Europe’s anti-American itch, Politico, 2022

Classical liberalism view:

Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent:

• Death Wish - Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent - Claremont Review of Books
• Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent - book

The deindustrialization of Germany/Europe (Europe's economic engine):

• The deindustrialization of Germany (Europe's economic engine)

• Europe Is Losing Its Factories

India

Websites:

• Times of India
• WION
• First Post
• Hindustan Times
• Observer Research Foundation

YouTube:

• Times of India
• WION
• First Post
• Hindustan Times
• Observer Research Foundation

Articles:

• India lost the manufacturing race to China. Here's why it could still succeed, 2024

China

Economics:

• China composite leading indicator index
• China economy - Google search
• China's debt

Chinese politics and economics:

• Pekingology

China and financial websites:

• Visual Capitalist - China
• Forbes - China
• Wall Street Journal - China
• Fortune - China

YouTube channels:

• China Update (Pessimistic about China's future)
• Lei's Real talk and Lei's Real talk, Website
• China Uncensored - YouTube
• China Unscripted- YouTube
• China Observer - YouTube
• China Insights - YouTube
• New China TV - YouTube
• China News (Epoch News - China. Falun Gong organization run)
• China in Focus - YouTube (Falun Gong organization just like the Epoch Times)
• South China Morning Post - YouTube
• China Fact Chasers - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel (SerpentZA) and a friend. Both formerly were English teachers in China. Mentions YouTube channels they endorse.
• The China Show - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel (SerpentZA) and a friend.
• ADV China - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel (SerpentZA) and a friend.
• Serpentza - YouTube - Run by the South African Winston Sterzel. Former English teacher in China
• laowhy86 - YouTube. I am Matthew Tye from Laowhy86. I am a human rights advocate for China.

China:

• The Chinese Collapse: A (MASSIVE) Housing Overbuild || Peter Zeihan
• A Conversation with Professor Stephen Kotkin, Kleinheinz Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution - China by Stephen Kotkin, December 2022
• The End of China? - Nomad capitalist
• The Protestant Work Ethic: Alive & Well…In China

China, leading economic indicators:

• China, leading economic indicators (China's figures are suspect due to corruption of the Chinese Communist Party)

Length of modern, authoritarian/communist regimes:

• The Chinese Communist Party is on the verge of turning today's China into yesterday's Soviet Union
• China's Communist Party is at a fatal age for one-party regimes. How much longer can it survive?

China's property crisis:

Chinese economy: "Growth is slowing at an alarming pace. The most recent figures, for the three months to the end of June, were the worst in five quarters while consumer prices again threaten to tip into negative territory. More alarmingly, the three-year meltdown in its property market continues unabated. What once was chipping away at personal wealth is now running a wrecking ball through the economy, hitting terminally weak household consumption." [2]

US-China relations

Donald Trump and his China policy

• Who Will Trump Listen to On China?, 2024, City Journal

• Donald Trump’s First-Term China Strategy Was A Success, National Interest, 2024

China likely stuck in middle-income trap

• China Confronts the Middle-Income Trap by Nouriel Roubini (economist), Project Syndicate, 2024

• With “Xinomics” Caught in a Trap, China Will Not Join the Ranks of Advanced Economies, September 2023, Nippon.com

China and debt

• CHINA Trillion Yuan Debt Disaster: Stimulus Fails to Deliver Economic Growth & Investment Collapses, 2024 video

Chinese export strategy will not work this time

• China Tariffs: US Deals Trade Blow to World's No. 2 Economy, September 2024.

"The U.S.'s steep tariff hikes on Chinese goods took effect on Friday after Beijing criticized the move as mutually destructive protectionism. The Biden administration announced in May that it was upholding tariffs on $300 billion worth of Trump administration tariffs after a four-year review.

Due to China having a significantly higher percentage of world exports than it did 25 years ago, China cannot export its way out of its economic problems because the world is not as able to absorb China's exports (See: China’s Export Game Won’t Work This Time, Forbes, April 15, 2024).

Biden hits China with steel tariffs

• Biden Hits China With Tariffs | EU-China: Trade Tensions | US-China, April 2024

US trade chief calls for action to shield EV sector from China

• US trade chief calls for action to shield EV sector from China, April 17,2024

Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60%

• Trump suggests tariffs against nations including China over illegal immigration, 2024

• Trump says US China tariffs needed on other vehicles, products, Reuters, May 14, 2024

• Joe Biden and Donald Trump battle to prove who can be toughest on China, May 16, 2024 Financial Times

• The US Places Huge Tariffs on Chinese Imports || Peter Zeihan, 2024

• Economists weigh pros and cons of Trump plan for 60% tariff on China

In 2023, China's exports made up around 18.9% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

According to World's Top Exports, the United States is one of China's top trading partners, accounting for 14.8% of China's total exports in 2023.

If USA starts decoupling from China, it could spur other countries to as well (Like a contagion). Plus, it would give other countries more bargaining power.

• Distribution of Chinese foreign trade in 2022, by trade partner

China's economy is already showing "economic cracks".

Video: Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60% ?

US tariffs against China may spark China-EU Trade War

• Why Biden’s monster EV tariffs could inflame a Europe-China trade war

Communist China's plan to address its property crisis will do tremendous damage to China's economic prospects

See: Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)

• Real Estate Crisis Bailout: ‘It Could Bankrupt Them’ – China’s Massive Bailout, Video 5/2024
• China mulls government purchases of unsold homes to ease glut, WION, May 2024
• The Plan For China’s Property Crisis May Cost More Than $280 Billion, Forbes, March 1, 2024 ( Communist China's plan to address its property crisis will do tremendous damage to China's economic prospects)

Peter Zeihan on Chinese housing overbuild:

• The Chinese Collapse: A (MASSIVE) Housing Overbuild, 2023 (2007/2008 USA housing crisis was 5% housing overbuild. China's overbuild of housing is 200%. THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG PROBLEM. )

Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back

Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back, Economist, May 16, 2024

China and a potential balance sheet recession

• What must China do to avoid a Japan-type recession? Economist Richard Koo adds up why ‘the Chinese situation is far more serious’, May 2024, South China Morning Post
• China's 'Balance Sheet Recession' Is Like, Unlike Japan’s, Economist Who Coined Term Says, 2024

Anti-China hawks

• Michael Pilsbury - Google search

• Michael Pilsbury - YouTube

Pro-China doves

• Professor Keyu Jin - YouTube

• Key Jin - Twitter

• Keyu Jin - Google News

USA is an era of "cold peace"/frenemies era and not yet cold war yet

• No, This Is Not a Cold War—Yet, Why are China hawks exaggerating the threat from Beijing?, Foreign Affairs, 2024

Taiwan

• Taiwan talks

• Taiwan Plus News

Japan

• Why Japan Rejects Western Style Globalism

Japan YouTube channels:

• Nippon TV News 24 Japan
• NHK WORLD-JAPAN
• Life Where I am From
• Abroad in Japan

Russia

• Why Is Russia Not Rich?, 2024, video, History Scope
• Russia and Russian economy (Putin's trilemna, Check Russia's economy on 4-19-2027, Put in my electronic calendar). If war in Ukraine ends sooner, then recalibrate when I check on Russia's economy next.
• Russia's leading economic indicators
• Russia crude oil production
• Russia - economy
• Russia fertility rate
• Russia GDP per capita PPP
• Urals oil price
• Russia ranked #99 in the world in road quality, 2019. Russia's Pothole Predicament, 2017. "An estimated 40 percent of rural villages are not connected to a paved road. In 1999 an estimated 43 percent of federal roads (which account for 46,000 kilometers and half of the country’s trucking volume) did not meet minimum quality standards because of broken surfaces, poor marking, and poor lighting. Road conditions are a major factor in Russia’s very high rate of traffic casualties. The road crisis is exacerbated by steady increases in vehicle volume. [Source: Library of Congress, October 2006 **]. Automobile travel is expanding, but the construction of new roads is not keeping pace. Some dreamers believe that in the not too distant future, the pot-holed roads will be replaced with a network of modern highways and goods will thus be moved overland by truck rather than railway."[3]

Various Scenarios for Russia's future

• The Five Futures of Russia by historian Stephen Kotkin, May/June 2024
• Russia Tomorrow: Five scenarios for Russia’s future, February 2024
• Russia Is Burning Up Its Future, How Putin’s Pursuit of Power Has Hollowed Out the Country and Its People, 2024
• Welcome & Keynote, "Past, Present and Future of Putin's Russia (and What Comes Next)", 2023, Russian Sergei Guriev (Economist)
• Will Russia eventually pay Ukraine reparations?, Deteriorating economic conditions post war in Ukraine causes Russia to wish reapproachment with the West and agree to paying Ukraine reparations
• Putin's offensive capability will be gone 'within a decade' | Peter Zeihan

Russia's entering stormy, uncharted, economic waters

"According to the Russian Central Bank, over $253 billion in private capital has left the country, and estimates suggest that up to one million highly skilled workers have emigrated, constituting about 10% of Russia's technology workforce and a third of its millionaires​, according to the Financial Times." - Russian Economy in 'Stormy Uncharted Waters,' Putin's Banking Chief Says, 2024

• Russia Is on a Slow Path to Bankruptcy, But How Slow?, 2024

Potential stagflation or deep recession for Russia in 2025

"The Bank of Russia’s statements indicate the central bank sees the economy on the cusp of stagflation. Despite sanctions and labor shortages binding output growth, corporations and consumers don’t expect price increases to slow. They also don’t perceive double digit borrowing rates as particularly restrictive. The central bank is right to be worried — we expect inflation to continue running above policymakers’ 4% target, while GDP growth is likely to slow to 1%-1.5% in 2025." — Alex Isakov, Russia economist[4]

• Russia faces stagflation prospect amid dogged inflation, lower growth, 2024

• Russia's 'overheating' economy will face a sharp slowdown in 2025 as inflation, labor shortages and sanctions crush momentum, Russia central bank says, 2025. "GDP could fall from as much as 4% to as low as 0.5% in 2025, the report said."

• Russia Flags Slowing Economic Demand as Price Pressures Persist, Bloomberg September 2024. "The Bank of Russia sees early indications that policymakers’ nightmare scenario of high prices coupled with slow economic growth — elements of what is known as stagflation — risks becoming a reality for the country."
• Russia's economy is signaling a fate worse than recession, September, 2024
• Russia expected to see ‘severe recession’ within a year

Russia and sales of natural gas:

• The war in Ukraine has turned Russia’s biggest company, Gazprom (a Russian state-controlled energy firm) into a massive money loser, 2024. If Trump is elected, he will likely end Biden's idiotic regulatory “pause” on development of facilities for exporting liquid natural gas (LNG).

Fertility rate and demographic crisis relative to Russia:

• The Hidden Crisis Destroying Russia From the Inside, video
• Putin’s Existential Problem: Not Enough Russians, WSJ, 2024 (Russia’s population has been in decline for years, and the war in Ukraine has made matters worse)

Alcoholism rising in Russia due to psychological tension related to the war in Ukraine - alcohol consumption is at a 9 year high:

• ‘Psychological tension’ driving alcoholic drink demand in Russia, The Drinks Business, July 2024

• But as supply in Russia has dwindled, demand has shot up. As db reported, the increased demand for alcoholic drinks is partly due to “psychological tension” caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. In 2023, the number of litres of alcohol consumed per person per year in Russia reached a nine-year high to eight litres, and may even be higher than that volume. Currently the per capita sales of absolute alcohol are growing in Russia. This clearly indicates an increase in consumption. This is how the population responds to difficulties,” said Evgeny Andreev, a leading researcher at the Centre for Demographic Research of the Russian Economic School (NES).[5].

Tremendous cost of wounded and PTSD/alcoholic veterans post war in Ukraine: Wounded Veterans, Wounded Economy: The Personnel Costs of Russia’s War

Will Russian assets be seized?

• Seize Russian assets - Google search

• Interview: 'I Don't See How This Cannot Happen,' Bill Browder Says Of Seizing Russian Assets, Radio Free Europe, 2/2024
• Momentum Builds in Efforts to Seize Russian Assets for Ukraine, Voice of America, 2/2024
• Bill Browder

The limits of the Russian military:

• The Limits of Russia's War Machine, Peter Zeihan, 2024

Russia economy and commentary by economists

Sergei Guriev (Economist):

• Sergei Guriev Russia - Google search

• Sergei Guriev Russia - YouTube

Articles by Sergei Guriev:

• Q&A with Sergei Guriev: ‘The optimistic scenario is the departure of Vladimir Putin in whatever way’, 2024

Videos by Sergei Guriev:

• Sergei Guriev & Oleg Itskhoki: Russian Economy 2 1/2 Years Into the War Against Ukraine
• Welcome & Keynote, "Past, Present and Future of Putin's Russia (and What Comes Next)"

Books by Sergei Guriev:

• Books by Sergei Guriev

Alexandra Prokopenko:

Alexandra Prokopenko (Expert on Russian economic and monetary policy and the decision-making. From 2017 until early 2022 Alexandra worked at the Central Bank of Russia and at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow. She is a former columnist for Vedomosti. She is a graduate of Moscow State University and holds an MA in Sociology from the University of Manchester:

• Alexandra Prokopenko - Google News

• Alexandra Prokopenko - Moscow Times

• Alexandra Prokopenko - YouTube

• Alexandra Prokopenko - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

• Alexandra Prokopenko - Twitter

Key articles by Alexandra Prokopenko:

• Russia’s new budget is a blueprint for war, despite the cost, Financial Times, 2024
• Russia's economy faces an 'unsolvable trilemma' but can survive for several more years, think tank expert says, Business Insider, 2024. "Defense and national security spending will account for 8% of GDP and 40% of all federal expenditures, Prokopeko said — the highest level since the Soviet Union's collapse. In boosting spending to such heights, Russian President Vladimir Putin is effectively dismissing brewing economic imbalances as other parts of the budget become squeezed. This shift toward a military-oriented economy could last up to eight years, she pred, but will come back to bite Russia down the road."

Anders Aslund:

• Anders Aslund, Swedish economist - Google News

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld

• Jeffrey Sonnenfeld - Google News - Yale Researcher

• Jeffrey Sonnenfeld - YouTube, YouTube

Russia News

• Russia Post
• Center for Strategic & International Studies
• Moscow Times (con)
• The Insider
• The Bell
• Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics (YouTube) - Pyotr Kurzin is a British-Russian expat who lives in Washington DC and graduated from Johns Hopkins Univesity.
• Vlad Vexler (YouTube) - My mission is to guide you through the political challenges we all face in the 21st century. I’m a philosopher. My academic life focuses on the concept of freedom and I'm writing a book about Isaiah Berlin. I'm a British citizen living in London. I was born in Soviet Russia - I left before the collapse of the USSR. I continue to closely analyse Russian politics.
• Silicon Curtain
• Inside Russia (Con)
• Riddle (Con)
• Icarus Project
• Peter Zeihan - Russia (Con)
• Joe Blogs - Russia (Con)
• Stephen Kotkin - Russia (Con) - Stephen Kotkin on Ukraine, Russia, China and the World
• Stephen Kotin - Putin (Con)
• Anna from Ukraine

• John Mearsheimer - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
• Steve Turley - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
• Dmitry Orlov - YouTube - Dmitry Orlov is reasonable person overall in some ways and intelligent, leans Russia (American engineer and writer raised in Russia until the age of 12. Witnesswed Collapse of Soviet Union)

• The Duran (Pro)
• Lena Petrova
• Dialogue Works - Pro-Russia leaning
• Russia Today (Pro)
• Sputnik International (pro)
• Dialogue Works - Pro-Russia leaning

Blogs:

• Russia Matters - Harvard's Kennedy Center for Science and International Affairs
• The Russia File - Mixed bag
• In Moscow's Shadows

Russian oil: Lower production and lower profits:

• The Golden Age of Russian Oil Nears an End
• The Future of Russian Oil Production in the Short, Medium, and Long Term, Abstract
• How Stable Is the Russian Oil Industry? - Video
• Russian Oil's Vanishing Act - video
• Analysts Predict 42% Decline In Russian Oil Production By 2035
• Crumbling Infrastructure in the Russian Taiga - video
• A long-term outlook on Russian oil industry facing internal and external challenges

Economic problems:

• The “no human” factor: How Russia’s workforce shortage rolls back its economic development

Russian culture overview

• Why Russia sees itself as much more than just a nation
• Prof. Kotkin: "Russia: Back to the USSR or Back to the Tsarist Empire?"
• Russian culture, traditions and art: Russian Culture: Facts, Customs & Traditions and Russian Culture, Traditions, Arts - Britannica and culture of Russia and Russian culture - Core Concepts and Russian Cultural Overview and Russian Culture and A guide to: Russian Traditions, Culture, Customs & Etiquette

• 5 Characteristics of Russian Culture I Have Learned from My Host Family While Teaching English
• Contemporary Russia before the war in Ukraine and Russian history - video playlist

Other cultural overview:

• The Black Legend of Russian History - The Burning Archive Podcast Remixed
• A brief history of Russia with Sergei Guriev
• The History Behind Russia's Expansionary Foreign Policy with Stephen Kotkin | Policy Stories
• Plenary 1: Russia, Civilization, and Western Liberalism
• Unwrapping The Enigma, Mystery And Riddle: Stephen Kotkin Explains Russia To Andrew Roberts
• Are Russians really longsuffering? Russia is more prone to revolution and revolutionary change than places like the United States, United Kingdom or many other modern democratic counties, History Network
• Russia’s Ukraine Resurgence Shows It’s Often Down but Never Out by Hal Brands, 2024
• Vlad Vexler
• A LOOK AT RUSSIAN CIVILIZATION: POWER, TRUTH, TRUST, AND WAR
• The Russian Psyche | Konstantin Kisin
• U.S–Russia Relations, with Stephen Kotkin, August 2022
• The Psychology of an Isolated Russia - Stephen Kotkin
• Isaiah Berlin Memorial Lecture 2018: Stephen Kotkin - Sir Isaiah Berlin was a Russian-British social and political theorist, philosopher, and historian of ideas
• 5 More Questions For Stephen Kotkin: Ukraine Edition
• What is Eurasia? - Stephen Kotkin
• Russia and the West: A Historical Perspective.
• Political abuse of psychiatry in Russia
• Russian television excerpts - Russian imperialism
• 'The borders of Russia do not end' says Putin at awards ceremony - November 24, 2016 (Russian Geographic Society in Moscow)

Religiosity percentages of Russians:

• Religiosity percentages of Russians - chart

Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future and The true impact of a year of war on Russia's economy

Russia and fertility rate and demographics:

• The Hidden Crisis Destroying Russia From the Inside, Video
• Demographics of the Orthodox Christain world by Peter Zeihan
• Russia's Demographic Crisis Explained - TLDR News
• Updates on Russian Demographics
• (Russia is DONE) Russia's Catastrophic Demographics Collapse is Here.

Contemporary Russia:

• Russia is burning up its future, Foreign Affairs 2024 (archive) - War in Ukraine is hiring Russia's long term future

Putin:

• Vladimir Putin - history and analysis
• What Everyone Needs to Know about Russia Under Putin - FPRI's 2018 Champagne Brunch for Partners (Russia is a paradox of strengths and weaknesses)
• Why China's sinking economy could backfire on Vladimir Putin , Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 2024
• The Complete History Of Vladimir Putin's Rise To Power - video
• Vladimir Putin: Life of a Modern Warlord - video
• It’s Time to Discuss Putin Derangement Syndrome (PDS) Type I and Type II
• Andrei Kolesnikov: Putin’s Fragile Compact With the Russian People | Foreign Affairs Interview, 2024
• Putin the planner and Putin: We Must Understand What Makes him tick - Andrei Illarionov, formerly a Senior Policy Adviser during Putin's early period as President]
• Lynch on Lourie, 'Putin: His Downfall and Russia's Coming Crash'
• The Putin Paradox: The Missed Opportunity of 1989 & Beyond | Feb. 12, 2020, video (Russia scholar Richard Sakwa was featured on The Duran on March, 11, 2024).[6]
• Putin Debate | Richard Sakwa | Oxford Union, video, 2020 (Talks about stagnation in Russia)
• President Putin asks outgoing government to remain at work - Richard Sakwa, 2020
• Putin Debate | Richard Sakwa | Oxford Union, 2014 (Achievements and downsides of Putin)
• Putin dismissed US warnings about a potential terror incident as 'blackmail' just 3 days before Moscow concert hall attack
• Putin fell down stairs, soiled himself as speculation over worsening health grows: report.[7][8][9][10]
• Another Russian mercenary leader has turned against Putin, 2024, The Hill

Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?

• Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?
• Vladimir Putin hiding lover Alina Kabaeva and their kids in Switzerland, 2022
• PUTIN & HIS LOVERS: RUSSIAN PARADOX, 2024

Maps of Russia:

• Political map of Russia, or Russian Federation divided by types of federal subjects - republics, krays, oblasts, cities of federal significance, autonomous oblasts and autonomous okrugs. Simple flat vector map with labels - Unknown year
• Political map of Russia - Unknown year
• Russia map - Physical/geographical - Unknown year

Ukraine:

• Kim Iversen: Former NATO Analyst & Top UN Official Says THIS Is The REAL Reason For War In Ukraine
• The Chris Hedges Report: The truth about Ukraine with Medea Benjamin - History of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia (And U.S. involvement)
• Why it’s wrong to assume American evangelicals are siding with Russia over Ukraine

Russians destroying churches and engaging in religious discrimination in Ukraine:

• Report: 500 Ukrainian Churches and Religious Sites Damaged by Russian Military, Christianity Today, 2023

• Russia’s War Against Evangelicals, Time, 2024

Russia's fertility rate and demographic crisis

• A Russia without Russians? Putin’s disastrous demographics, August 2024
• Russia's fertility rate is "catastrophically low", bne IntelliNews, July 29, 2024
• Russia is Running Out of People, 2024
• Can Putin’s Russia Have More Children, Boost Growth and Reduce Poverty All at Once?, Russia Post, 2024

"So far, Moscow has demonstrated long-term adeptness in its policies toward immigrants, relaxing regulations when they were most needed. For instance, it admitted more immigrants after the pandemic and during the war, gradually simplified the rules for granting citizenship, and compensated for the natural population decline through naturalisation. This flexible approach, regardless of the current social climate in the country, is likely to continue. Although this will not reverse the negative trends, it will significantly mitigate them to prevent a demographic collapse. However, Russia’s plans could be thwarted by a severe economic downturn, which would discourage immigrants from Central Asia and the Caucasus from choosing Russia as a destination for economic migration."[11]

"An increase in beatings, vandalism and episodes of racism against Central Asian migrants has been reported in Russia since the deadly attacks at Moscow's Crocus City Hall last Friday."[12]

Russian diaspora

"A large Russian diaspora (sometimes including Russian-speaking non-Russians), estimated at 25 million people, has developed all over the world, with notable numbers in the United States, Germany, Brazil, and Canada."[13] See also: Russian diaspora

Post Ukraine invasion Russian diaspora:

• Wartime Emigration and the Russian Diaspora, 2024

• The New Russian Diaspora: The New Emigres’ Impact on Putin’s Rule, 2023

• Ukrainian And Russian Refugees Fleeing War Set Up Whites Only Bars In Sri Lanka

Russia is experiencing a large brain drain:

• Russia's massive brain drain is ravaging the economy - these stunning figures show why it will soon be smaller than Indonesia's, Business Insider, September 2023

• Russia's economy faces a 'massive brain drain' as over 1 million young workers exit labor force, Markets Insider, 2023

• The Great Russian Brain Drain, Novaya Gazeta Europe, 2023

• As Russia sees tech brain drain, other nations hope to gain, Associated Press, 2022

Will Jews Continue To Flee Russia in Large Numbers?

• Will Jews Continue To Flee Russia in Large Numbers?, 2023 (43,000 Jews fled Russia since the war in Ukraine)

Many high-income people are fleeing Russia:

• Billionaire Oligarchs’ Jets Flee Moscow As Putin’s Regime Plunges Into Crisis, Forbes 2024

• Russia is ‘hemorrhaging’ millionaires, June 2022

Template:Clear

American views of Putin and Russia:

"Americans overwhelmingly rate Putin negatively: 88% say they do not have confidence in the Russian president to do the right thing regarding world affairs, with two-thirds saying they have no confidence in him at all. A similar share lacked confidence in him in 2023 (90%)." - Pew Research, May 8, 2024[14]

"As Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, Americans remain very negative toward Russia: 91% have an unfavorable view of the country, including 62% who say their views are very unfavorable. Just 7% in the U.S. have a favorable view of Russia. This is a similar level of negativity compared with last year’s survey, when 92% of Americans were negative toward Russia." - Pew Research, Pew Research, May 10, 2023[15]

Post Western World notion

• A Post Western World? A Disturbing Interview With Prof. Harry Redner - Part 1

• A Post Western World? A Disturbing Interview With Prof. Harry Redner - Part 2

Decline of nations:

• Decline of nations - Daniel Greenfield's blog

Map of world by population size

• Map of world by population size

Peter Zeihan's view

• Peter Zeihan is an American geopolitical analyst and author.
• Predicting the Future with Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan

The historian Stephen Kotkin on 5 scenarios for Russia's future

• Stephen Kotkin: Russia’s Murky Future | Foreign Affairs Interview, 5-2-2024
• The Five Futures of Russia by the historian Steven Kotkin

Will Russia ever have good relations with Europe again? If so, will it happen relatively/somewhat soon or ever?

• The Five Futures of Russia by the historian Steven Kotkin

Con view

• Does the Bible say anything about Russia in relation to the end times?, Gotquestions.org

• Putin's offensive capability will be gone 'within a decade' | Peter Zeihan

• West must rebuild relations with Russia from scratch – Kremlin, Russia Today, 2024

Cultures tend to change slow.

The website Cultural Front notes: Template:Cquote

Pro-view

• Russia’s Economy, War in Ukraine, and Hopes for Post-Putin Liberalization, 2023

• Welcome & Keynote, "Past, Present and Future of Putin's Russia (and What Comes Next)", 2023

• Will Russia Return to Europe?, 2019

Better demographics and a country being a stronger power

• Political Demography: How Population Changes Are Reshaping International Security and National Politics
• With Great Demographics Comes Great Power, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2019
• Demography, geopolitics and great power: A lesson from the past, Aim Press, 2023
• The Geopolitical Importance of Demographic Power, 2018

Countries by population

• Countries by population size

World economics and trends

Global weekly economic update

• Global weekly economic update, Deloitte

GNP by country

Per capita:

• List of countries by GNI (PPP) per capita
• List of countries by GNI (nominal) per capita List of countries by GNI (nominal) per capita

Total GNP:

• Gross national income
• GNP by country, Macrotrends
• GNP by country, Worldpopulationreview.com

2023

• Visualizing the $105 Trillion World Economy in One Chart, August 2023
• Ranked: The World’s 25 Richest Countries by GDP per Capita, 2023

2024: Stephen Kotkin on international relations and geopolitics

• Stephen Kotkin on Lost in Translation: World Order & Word Order | HISPBC Ch.1, 2024
• Stephen Kotkin on Principles & Pragmatism: Walking the Geopolitical Tightrope | HISPBC Ch.2, 2024

World News

World news Western perspective:

• World News - Christian website
• World news - United Press International
• World News - Reuters
• Wall Street Journal
• World news - Associated Press

World News - NonWestern perspective:

• Times of India - World news
• Hindustan Times - World news
• Wion News - World
• Russia Today - World news
• Hindustan Times - YouTube
• WION news
• Business basics - Mixed bag of quality, geopolitics

Non-Western international politics YouTube channels perspective:

• The Duran
• Dialogue Works - Pro-Russia leaning
• The Caspian Report, Azerbaijan based, Mixed bag in terms of quality

World news. Data-driven UK YouTube video channel:

• Joe Blogs

Israel

Times of Israel:

• Times of Israel website
• Times of Israel - YouTube

CBN News:

• CBN News - Israel, YouTube

General:

• Here’s THE TRUTH About the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (A Comprehensive History) by Ben Shapiro
• Why Evangelical Christians Love Israel | VICE on HBO

• JNS (BTW, JNS is also critical on ADL's Greenblatt woke stuff), INN, and at times center leaning I24, or left leaning - Ynet or TOI. ILH is center leaning. Note. JPost is usually center leaning when it states it's by "Jerusalem Post Staff," but it often posts pure Reuters stuff.

Israel and prophecy/Bible/miracles

• Jonathan Cahn: Seeing God's Guiding Hand Over Israel

Modern Israel fulfills biblical prophecy:

Prophecies about the land of Israel fulfilled in our lifetime: Is Modern Israel Fulfilling Prophecy? and Is the modern state of Israel the fullfillment of prophecy and Unveiling the mysteries of Israel: Four biblical prophecies being fulfilled right now.

Miracles

Six Day War

• GOD'S HAND IN THE SIX DAY WAR
• Six Days of Miracles
• Did God Help Israel During The Six Day War?
• Fmr Israeli Commander: God Protected us in Battle

USA foreign policy: Interventionalism vs. Isolationism

• United States involvement in regime change
• Timeline of United States military operations

Trends:

Pointless and costly wars such as the Iraq War and War in Afghanistan are very expensive. The renowned military strategist and general Sun Tzu wrote: "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." Among the USA public, a less interventionalist and more isolationist sentiment is growing - particularly among young people (See: Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?). Of course, anything taken to an extreme can be a bad thing. The United States should stay engaged in the world - especially when it comes to the use of skillful diplomacy. At the same time, sometimes wars are unavoidable, but when a nation engages in a war, it should be a just war (See: Just War Theory).

Also, as the USA does more and more onshoring of its companies, there will be less and less of an incentive to be the world's policeman on the high seas (See: Deglobalization: The US Navy's Withdrawl as Global Protector).

NATO

• NATO

• Why NATO may have to stop a Russian invasion - without the US, Daily Mail, 2023

• NATO–Russia relations

• NATO and Russia

Expansion of NATO

Pro-NATO expansion:

• Stephen Kotkin on Russia’s argument to NATO expansion - anti-Russian/Putin argument on NATO expansion
• "But it was Vladimir Putin himself who signed the Rome Declaration on 28 May 2002. The same piece of paper I signed, which enshrined the basic principles of territorial integrity and non-interference in other countries. He signed that. He can't blame anybody else."[16]

Historian Mary E. Sarotte on issue of whether the West promised no NATO expansion:

• Historian Mary E. Sarotte argues that there was no promised for NATO not to expand eastward
• Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate, Hoover Institution
• Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate, Washington History Seminar
• MARY ELISE SAROTTE - Not One Inch: Nato's Eastward Expansion
• Lecture of Mary Sarotte «Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate
• Mary Sarotte, "Not One Inch"

• Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate by Mary E. Sarotte. ‎Yale University Press; First Edition (November 30, 2021)

Middle of the road on NATO expansion:

• Did NATO promise Russia never to expand to the east? | DW News, claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO

Anti-NATO expansion:

• Stephen F. Cohen: NATO expansion and Russia, claims H.W. Bush broke promise to Russia concerning expansion of NATO

• Gravitas Ukraine Direct: Did NATO betray Russia?

• Why NATO is a threat to Putin | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman

• War in Ukraine is the fault of US and NATO | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman

• Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer - Anti-NATO expansion

• Putin Tells Oliver Stone about his NATO Concerns

• Part 1: Oliver Stone Interviews Putin on U.S.-Russia Relations, 2016 Election, Snowden & NATO

• Part 2: Oliver Stone Interviews Putin on U.S.-Russia Relations, 2016 Election, Snowden & NATO

NATO's soft underbellys

• Russian MP’s Big Claim: Putin Planning to Attack NATO's Underbelly? | Vantage with Palki Sharma

• NATO Must Contest Russian Moves in Its Southern Underbelly

China and Christianity

• This fascinating map shows the new religious breakdown in China

What would a post-communist China look like?

• What Comes After the Communist Party in China?

World map

• World Map

World map by population

• World map by population, 2018

Major power politics in the 21st century for the foreseeable future

John Mearsheimer's view

• John Mearsheimer's substack

• The 2022 Holberg Debate w/ John Mearsheimer and Carl Bildt: Ukraine, Russia, China and the West
• John Mearsheimer: The West is playing Russian roulette
• Russians and NATO both feel that they cannot lose - War could drag on at a lower level for years and this is a dangerous situation.

Mearsheimer on US defense establishment likely to learn from the war in Ukraine

• Does the US still have the Capacity for Global Dominance? | Prof. John Mearsheimer, 2024, Ukraine, Taiwan and The True Cause of War | John Mearsheimer, 2024. Mearsheimer says the war in Ukraine revealed shortcomings of US Defense policies. Mearsheimer believes USA will fix its industrial capacity problems and upgrade its drone capabilities so it can better fight a potential war with China. Mearsheimer says that the USA's unpreparedness is a vestigage of the former unipolar world and that major power politics has returned. US populace embracing isolationism more in terms of young people, etc., but Mearsheimer argues that Washington/military industrial complex ignores what public wants.

Mearsheimer argues that liberalism pulls a society apart due to disagreement on first principles and that is why it preaches tolerance, but nationalism is a glue that helps hold a society together.[17]. Mearsheimer says liberals don't like realist school of politics because it goes against the grain of idealism and they like to pretend that liberal democracies never engage in realpolitik type behavior.[18]

Background info that Mearsheimer doesn't discuss: China is in economic decline, but it might attack Taiwan to distract from domestic economic problems. But such a war would hurt it economically since it is a trading nation and the Chinese appear to know that. Chinese threats of attacking Taiwan may be political kabuki theatre for its domestic population to distract from its interal problems.

Limitations/problems of Mearsheimer's view

• Why John Mearsheimer is wrong about realism, great power politics and history, The Burning Archive
• Here’s Where Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer Disagree

Peter Zeihan's view

• The Old World Order Is About To Collapse - Peter Zeihan - 2022

• Peter Zeihan Warns End Of Great Powers Will Bring Famine And Destruction For Smaller Nations -2022

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio

• Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio -2022 (Ray Dahlio has some good ideas, but he is inconsistent when it comes to China[19])

Changing civilizational world order

• Why the post-1989 global system is facing collapse
• Civilizational World Order w/Dr. Steve Turley - Listen to this

Globalization of trade

• Globalization of Trade Isn’t Going Anywhere. World trade in goods may have plateaued but did so at historically high levels, Meanwhile, other indicia of globalization—trade in services, digital trade, cross‐​border investment and migration, and cultural exchange—continue to increase. CATO, 2023

Books

• Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies by Jared Diamond Ph.D.

• The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan

Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda

• Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda

Military, wars, mass murder and expense

"The level of war in the world seems to have risen to 1989 (post-WWII) peak levels and holding, ending the pacific 1989-2006 era. Does this contradict the Decline of Violence (Pinker) / End of History (Fukuyama) theses, or is it just a blip?". - Professor Eric Kaufmann, Twitter/X.[20], See: War and Peace.

War, debt and the collapse of empires

• War Debt & Collapse of the Empire, 2018

• Comparing how empires fall, Khan Academy

• Empires Fall, Khan Academy

How long do wars last?

Wars start out as wars of maneuver. If a war a war of maneuver doesn't achieve victory in 6 months, then it most cases it turns into a war of attrition (Wars of attrition are more common than insurgencies after a war).[21]

Wars are ended by removing an enemies will to fight and/or ability to fight (Productive capacity)[22]

• "Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." - Sun Tzu

• "What is essential in war is victory, not prolonged operations." - Sun Tzu

• "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." - Sun Tzu

How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics:

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies article How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine Template:Cquote

Template:Clear

Just war vs. realist view of war

• War and International Politics , John Mearsheimer (He discusses realist view of war vs. Just War doctrine of war)

Winning the peace vs. winning a war

• How Not to Win the War, but the Peace - Stephen Kotkin

• Stephen Kotkin: Winning the peace vs. winning a war - short version

Military

• US Army fails to meet annual recruitment target, again
• US Military's Biggest Recruiting Crisis Is Here

Wars and warlike natures

Studies:

• Democracies More Prone to Start Wars – Except When They're Not

Democratic peace theory and related matters

• Democratic peace theory

Mass murder

• Atheism and mass murder

• Godless leftists with utopian visons are more mass murder prone than godless libertarians

Right-wing death squads vs. Left-wing murderous regimes

• Do they want right-wing death squads

Military concepts

• Sun Tzu
• Sun Tzu quotes
• Political warfare
• Fifth-generation warfare
• Asymmetric warfare
• Irregular warfare
• Lawfare
• Carl von Clausewitz
• List of military strategies and concepts
• Fourth generation warfare

Military competence and incompetence

• Task and purpose (Chris Cappy is a former US Army infantryman and Iraq Veteran. I cover geopolitics, history, weapon systems and all things military related — I do this from a veteran's perspective.).

Military competence

• Deliberate Discomfort: How U.S. Special Operations Forces Overcome Fear and Dare to Win by Getting Comfortable Being Uncomfortable by Jason B.A. Van Camp and Andy Symonds. Ballast Books (February 18, 2020)

Military incompetence

• On the Psychology of Military Incompetence by Norman F Dixon. Basic Books; Illustrated edition (May 31, 2016)

• Military Incompetence: Why the American Military Doesn't Win (American Century) by Richard A. Gabriel. Hill & Wang Pub; First Edition (January 1, 1985)

Sanctions have a poor record in effectiveness with unintended consequences

• DO SANCTIONS ACTUALLY WORK? EXPERTS EVALUATE THE EFFICACY OF THIS WIDELY USED FOREIGN POLICY TOOL (“What we found is that it works in ways that we don’t want it to work. And it doesn’t work in the ways that we want it to work,” said Middle East expert Vali Nasr, one of the book’s authors.)

International agreements

International agreements often fail to achieve their intended results

While international agreements certainly have their place and peace/peacemaking are always a good thing to pursue, research indicates that most international agreements fail to achieve their aims (International treaties have mostly failed to produce their intended effects, PNAS, August 1, 2022, 119 (32) e2122854119 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2122854119). Given men's frequent cases of poor thinking/planning and the sinfulness of human nature, this is not entirely surprising.

Also, as far as the Russian/Ukrainian peace negotiations, agreements are only as good as the trustworthiness of the people signing them. And unfortunately, Russia/Putin/Biden Administration are all corrupt and shown HERE as can be seen in points #1, #2 and #3.

And when I look at the Minsk Agreements, former agreements and promises mentioned below, I see Russia/Ukraine/West breaking agreements/promises. Also, as far as the Minsk Agreements, as can be seen below, Russia appears to be the biggest violaters of the Minsk Agreements, with Ukraine breaking the agreements also.

Russia, West, Ukraine and the West all acting badly in terms of Minsk Agreements, agreements and promises:

Russia acting badly:

• Both Russia and Ukraine Were Violaters of Minks Agreements, but Russia was a bigger violater, 2017

• History shows that no ceasefire or treaty with Russia can be trusted, The Hill, 2024

TUESDAY, JUNE 7, 2016, U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations: "Russia has acted contrary to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, and the Incidents at Sea Agreement. Russia has altered the human rights landscape within its own country, decreasing democracy and begging questions about the future of governance, not just in Moscow, but across the Federation. Moreover, Russia has joined the civil war in Syria and begun militarizing the Arctic."^[4]

West and Ukraine acting badly:

• Merkel admits that West were not sincere about Minsk Agreements, Yahoo News, 2022

• The West has broken its promises to developing countries – and we’re all paying the price, The Guardian, 2023

World politics, peak oil consumption, technology, forecasts, China and Russia

China, economic decline, green energy adoption and oil consumption:

• Beijing is no longer hiding its panic about the state of its economy, September 2024

• China is Russia's biggest customer of oil. China’s oil demand dips, ticks down as economic ebb eases fuel imports, August 2024. China has reduced its oil imports in recent months, as lower economic activity and green energy adoption have depressed demand.

USA's oil production:

• Why U.S. Oil Production Is 6.5% Ahead Of Last Year’s Record Pace, September 2024. Ongoing growth in U.S. oil output remains a key driver of the global energy market. U.S. crude oil production will almost certainly set a second consecutive record this year, reflecting strong demand and advances in extraction technologies, particularly in shale oil. If Trump is elected, USA oil production may further improve.

Saudi oil production:

• Blow to Putin's War Machine As Saudi Arabia Ramps Up Oil Production, September 2024 (If Trump is elected, US-Saudi relations may improve)

Nuclear power growing due to technological advances:

• Nuclear power expansion fuelled by small modular reactors, says IAEA', Nuclear energy capacity is now expected to increase 2.5 times by 2050 compared to current levels.

Short-term oil price forecast:

• Crude Oil Primed for Explosive Short-Squeeze as Bearish Sentiment Peaks, September 2024

Forecast of world oil consumption:

• Charted: What Powered the World in 2023, Visual Capitalist

• Global Energy Trends: Insights From The 2023 Statistical Review Of World Energy, Forbes, 2023

• Global energy sources by type over time, Graph/pie chart

Exxon Mobil forecast:

• ExxonMobil Global Outlook: Our view to 2050, Executive summary

OPEC Forecasts:

• Russia Expects Strong Global Oil Demand Growth Through to 2050, OilPrice.com, September 2024

• OPEC boosts long-term oil demand outlook, driven by developing world growth

Notes

Template:Reflist
Cite error: <ref> tags exist, but no <references/> tag was found