User:Conservative/Economics

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Contents

Economic forecasts

See also: Forecasting

Yield curve

American/Debt/Trump Bubble economy

American middle class shrinking. Many jobs are low wage

The difficulty of long term economic forecasting for various companies/sectors/countries

Difficulty of short term economic forecasting due to various factors

Videos: Finance, politics, society

YouTube channels on investing

YouTube Real estate investing

Basic investing/buying

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio

How big is the US National debt

Economics

File:MagensBay.jpg
Magens Bay, United States Virgin Islands

General economic trend forecasting related info

Sources:

How the economy works

Grant Cardone on wealth creation

Grant Cardone on real estate

General principles of investing

File:Matterhorn public domain.jpg
Matterhorn - "Well John, it is going to be difficult for you, but I think we can make it together." - Alfons, the climbing guide. [4]

Personal Principles:

From Invest in Yourself by Mark Eisenson, Gerri Detweiler, and Nancy Castleman:

"According to Gerald Celente, Director of the Trends Research Institute and author of Trends 2000, the key to tracking trends is to read two newspapers every day with a purpose — either The Wall Street Journal or The Financial Times, plus The New York Times or USA Today. Look for stories with social, economic, and political significance, be it about the difficulties older suburbs face or the current currency crisis. (You’ll know by the headline or the first paragraph.) Skip the stories that are purely human interest or that are about something that hasn’t happened yet (for example, a jury resuming deliberation on a sensational trial).

When a crisis does occur, tune in to the extra in-depth analyses that you’ll find in accompanying background pieces probably in more than one of the newspapers. Read them as though you’re a “political atheist,” Celente recommends — not for what you want or hope, but for what is really going on, not only in your own profession or industry, but for trends that may directly or indirectly shape the future.[5]


Rather than searching for decent jobs that are very hard to find, some Americans are deciding to become self-employed.[6] Robert P. Murphy, an economist at the Mises Institute, recommends that one of the best measures to protect against a future economic depression is to develop multiple streams of income rather than risk depending on one or two income sources which may disappear in a depression.[7] Americans are using creative ways to launch a wide variety of low cost businesses.[8][9][10][11]


Market volatility strategies:

Investor psychological traps:

Tech investing:

Stock investing

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

Diversification and asset classes

"Diversification and globalization are the keys to the future." - Fujio Mitarai

Jim Rogers

James O'Shaughnessy

Avoiding pitfalls of investing

Mitigating risks

Stock investing: Good opportunities

MOAT:

Investing in blue chip art:

Books:

  • Understanding Art by Lois Fichner-Rathus, Cengage Learning; 11th edition (January 1, 2016)
  • How To Understand Art (Art Essentials) by Janetta Rebold Benton, Thames & Hudson (October 26, 2021)
  • Foundations of Art and Design by Lois Fichner-Rathus, Wadsworth Publishing; 1st edition (February 16, 2007)


Angel investing study - 27% return - Kaufman study:

Stock investing experts

Mark Lipias

Mark Lipacis: Out of more than 8,000 total analysts in the TipRanks database, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis is rated No. 1 based on his stock-picking track record over the past 10 years. Lipacis has an impressive 73% success rate on his stock ratings, and his 498 stock picks generated an average return of 30.3%.[12]

Eric Fry

Other Notable stock investment specialists


  • Seeking Alpha – Best Investment Research Website for Experienced Investors
  • Morningstar – Best Data-Driven Investment Research Platform (especially for mutual funds and ETFs)
  • Zacks – Best Supplementary Rating System


Motley Fool:

Growth investor:

Louis Navellier:

Tech investors:

  • Produced in partnership with TrueBridge Capital Partners, the Midas List has long tracked venture capital’s ebbs and flows as the definitive ranking of the top 100 tech investors."- Forbes, 2023[13]

Quants: What They Do and How They've Evolved

Real estate investing

Rentals for passive income

Commercial real estate

Reducing taxes via real estate investing

Baby boomers and real estate

Medical office building investing

Stock investment research and trading: Research and firms

Reviews

How long to hold a stock

Value stocks

Market direction indicators

Employment, Inflation, Consumer Activity and investor activity

St. Louis Federal Reserve's Financial Stress Index and Chicago Federal Reserve's National Activity Index

VIX

  • The Volatility Index, or VIX, measures volatility in the stock market. When the VIX is low, volatility is low. When the VIX is high volatility is high, which is usually accompanied by market fear.

The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) creates and tracks an index know as the Volatility Index (VIX), which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 Index options.

  • The Vix Index - Investopedia - The VIX is used as a contrary market indicator, how institutional sentiment can be measured by VIX, and why an understanding of the VIX tends to favor long and short puts.

KEY TAKEAWAYs

  • The Volatility Index, or VIX, measures volatility in the stock market.
  • When the VIX is low, volatility is low. When the VIX is high volatility is high, which is usually accompanied by market fear.
  • Buying when the VIX is high and selling when it is low is a strategy, but one that needs to be considered against other factors and indicators.

Asia and investing

Asian century

China vs. India and investing

Debate: Has China peaked? Pro/con arguments

Angel investing study - 27% return - Kaufman study

Angel investor, Kaufman study:

Key principles of angel investing:

Angel investor groups:

Websites:

Entrepreneur view:

Accredited investor criteria:

Cool companies:

Interesting investment gurus

Paul Mampilly

Internet of Things investments

Stock tracking

Entrepeneurial economy/crowdfunding vs. Corporate welfare and FIRE economy

"Businesses that make up the FIRE economy include banks and credit unions, credit card companies, insurance agencies, mortgage brokers, investment brokerages, real estate agencies, hedge funds and more."[14]

Crowdfunding

Tech stocks

CAN SLIM investing

Pro:

Pros/cons:

List of countries by by GDP (nominal) per capita

Resilient Israelis

Investor and trader psychological profiles

Emerging markets

Asia

CIVETS

The decade of the CIVETS - Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa

Philippines

Africa

Conservation investing

David Rosenburg

Tech boom

Making money in the next downturn

US housing bubbble

Debt bomb under Trump

Decline/collapse of the dollar

Decline vs. collapse:

Conditions needed for collapse

Arguments against

Yuan vs. Dollar chart

Economic depression / Economic collapse

Nouriel Roubini

Videos/articles

Summary

"When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing.

Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis.

While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent.

The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture.

Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate.

With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates.

How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates.

For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage."[15]

BOE and QE:

"Critics say QE played a major role in pushing up house prices and stock markets for more than a decade, worsening inequality. The BoE has said that without QE, consumer price inflation would have undershot its 2% target during the 2010s, and that unemployment would have been much higher at points."[16]

Books

ITR Economics

Intro: The Coming Great Depression of the 2030s

Causes:

Book:

Ray Dahlio

Jamie Dimon

Others

Prepper/frugality

Other resources

Resources on how to prepare:

  • America 2020: The Survival Blueprint, Updated Edition[17][18][19]

Hard core survivalist material:

Other info:

Vox Day indicates that debt fueled GDP growth will ultimately lead to a Great Depression 2.0 that will last for a decade or more.[20][21]

Vox Day predicts an economic collapse in 2033.[22]

Vox Day was one of the few that predicted the 2007 financial crisis. Gerald Celente argues that debt and a reduced productive capacity will also lead to a severe economic depression. Austrian economists are generally better at predicting recessions/depressions due to financial bubbles bursting which are the result of governmental policies or other factors.[23]

Predicting when the Great Depression 2.0 in the short term is very difficult due to the band aids the central banks are putting on the Western economies. Jim Rogers is an excellent investor but lousy trader and often financial analysts have problems predicting the short term.

Historical guide of when a big downturn will hit by Jeremy Grantham: "We do think the market is going to go higher because the Fed hasn't ended its game, and it won't stop playing until we are in old-fashioned bubble territory and it bursts, which usually happens at two standard deviations from the market's mean. That would take us to 2,350 on the S&P 500, or roughly 25% from where we are now."[24] Grantham predicts 7 years of negative returns for the stock market once the bubble burst.[25]

If stock market gets out of its current stall, based on recent anemic growth of S&P 500, an economic crash could happen in the first/second quarter of 2015. Americans are dispirited though and ObamaCare isn't going to make things any better so downturn could happen in 2014 (Even Soros is betting against the S&P 500 and is exercising put options.[26][27]).

Predicting a market crash by the consensus opinion is foolhardy and you will never see it coming. [28] 2014 will see a lot of volatility.[29]

Hedging your bets in case of a stock market crash.[30]

When countries go bankrupt

Is the USA bankrupt and postponing the inevitable?

U.S. Debt crisis

The problem with over printing money

Economic effects of war

Economic collapse and related

US federal govt debt as a percentage of GDP: http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_debt_chart.html

  • Expected Congressional gridlock and Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing policy will not work and stock market could take an abrupt downturn in about 6 months or less.[31][32][33]

Effects of global financial collapse:

Potential economic collapse:

Comparison of current crises to the 17 century economic problems and other crisis

Some prior periods of mankind's history like 1347 to 1351 (Black Death) and 1918-1945 (Spanish flu, WWI, Great Depression and WWII).

The leading investment expert Harry Schultz writes: “Roughly speaking, the mess we are in is the worst since 17th century financial collapse. Comparisons with the 1930’s are ludicrous. We’ve gone far beyond that. And, alas, the courage & political will to recognize the mess & act wisely to reverse gears, is absent in U.S. leadership, where the problems were hatched & where the rot is by far the deepest.”[36]

Some articles on the 17th century "General Crises" can be read HERE and HERE and HERE

Recessions after fiscal crises take much longer to recover historically

Eurocrises

Oil

Survivalism Recommended books

  • How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It: Tactics, Techniques, and Technologies for Uncertain Times by James Wesley Rawles
  • The Prepper's Guide to Surviving the End of the World, as We Know It: Gear, Skills, and Related Know-How by M.D. Creekmore

The weaknesses/woes of categorizing economists as optimists or pessimists

Economic/financial responsible realists that should not be ignored

1. Nouriel Roubini: Nouriel Roubini - YouTube or Nouriel Roubini - Google News

2. Jim Rogers: Jim Rogers - YouTube and Jim Rogers - Google News

Jim Rogers blogs: Jim Rogers - blogspot and Jim Rogers talks markets

Jim Rogers - books: Jim Rogers - Amazon page

3. Bill Goss - Bill Goss - YouTube and Bill goss bonds - Google news

4. Vikram Mansharamani:

Book: Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst by Vikram Mansharamani, 2019

Best (most credible) economic doomsayers

1. Niall Ferguson:

Niall Ferguson is more of an economic historial than pure economist, but his writing and warnings about debt have earned him a prominent place in the US media, and prompted fights with the likes of Paul Krugman.

Niall Ferguson - YouTube and Niall Ferguson - Google News

2. Marc Faber:

3. Dmitry Orlov:

Dmitry Orlov sees similarities between the US and the collapse of Russia in the late 80s. His theory is based on the 5 stages of collapse, starting with the financial system, followed by commerce, then the political system, then social and finally, cultural collapse.

Bibliography:

  • Orlov, Dmitry (2008). Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects. New Society Publishers. p. 208. ISBN 978-0-86571-685-8.
  • Orlov, Dmitry (2012). Absolutely Positive. Dmitry Orlov. p. 138. ASIN B008047OTS
  • Orlov, Dmitry (2013). The Five Stages of Collapse: Survivors' Toolkit. New Society Publishers. p. 288. ISBN 978-0-86571-736-7.
  • Communities that Abide Paperback – August 4, 2014 by Dmitry Orlov (Author), Albert Bates (Author), Ray Jason (Author), James Truong (Author), Peter Kropotkin (Author),
  • Orlov, Dmitry (2016). Shrinking the Technosphere: Getting a Grip on Technologies That Limit Our Autonomy, Self-Sufficiency and Freedom. New Society Publishers. p. 256. ISBN 978-0-86571-838-8.

Blogs:

Harry Dent and his track record and what you can glean from him

America's affluent

Miscellaneous general financial and business websites

Other economic and business sources

Establishment financial:

Austrian and other financial:


ECRI videos:

Meltdown on Main street - NewsMax - High dividend stock strategy and other strategies

"Bob Wiedemer, co-author with Tom Hutchinson of America's Bubble Economy and the New York Times best-selling book "Aftershock", discussed the topic, "Meltdown on Main Street on a program aired by Newsmax. He discussed the rapid extinction of the American middle class — a social and economic catastrophe that has impacted people's ability to achieve prosperity. He is offering a program called The Middle-Class Survival Package, and it includes a brand-new, full-feature DVD presentation, Fortified Income Strategies, and Tom's new book, Powerful Secrets to Achieve Superior Returns."[37]

Dogs of the Dow strategy making resurgence

MOAT Strategy - Warren Buffet - Value Investing - morningstar

20 stocks for the long term

Quantitative investing

Cornerstone Growth strategy - O'Shaunessty funds:

Other investing and stock trading resources

1. Intelligent investor - classic book on value investing

2. Lies your broker tells you - gives advice on investing including reputable mutual funds

Investment strategies - Google news

Absolute return strategies and economic climates

Yale University uses an absolute return strategy which is responsive to economic climates. Has achieved consistent returns. Austrian school economists have had superior predicting of downturns as of late compared to Keynesian economists.

Stock trading

1. Stockinvesting.net (trading not long term investing)

2. 5 books which will transform your trading

3. Martin D. Weiss

Short trading

Banning of short selling in a crisis:

Elliot wave theorists - speculative and subjective - at odds with efficient market hypothesis

(Technical analysis only goes so far and studying the fundamentals and value investing have yielding excellent results)

Plutonomy stocks

Commodity investing

General advice

Agriculture and food investing

Government money printing strengthens commodities which includes food commodities, world population expected to grow to 9 billion by 2050, stability - in a down economy people still have to eat - ag and food stocks will quickly rebound from a down market or market panic, opposition to science/evidence based increases in crop yields will likely wither when push comes to shove and people need to be fed and second green revolution will happen. Science based initiatives to increase crop yields will see increased advocacy - especially in developing countries which are increasing in their influence such as India.

Good food stock investments:

Specific ag and food companies:

Ag eqpt:

Food distributors:

Miscellaneous:

Discount Retail investing

Utility stock investing

Gold and silver investing

The purpose of gold as an investment (Pros and cons):

Cons of investing in gold:

Bear markets and gold:

Gold analysts

Gold resources and articles

Contemporary and yearly gold/silver charts:

Historic price of gold/silver adjusted for inflation: 100 years:

Other:

Gold:

Farmland investing

Fertilizer

Organic fertilizers

Fertilizer investments

Real estate

Best real estate investments

Best international real estate investments

Realty Mogul

Real estate investing

Realty investing:

Cash is king:

Real estate selling, landlording and mortgage loan origination

Realtor incomes:


Real estate sales, lead generation:

Online lead generation


Mortgage loan officer brokers, income:

Landlording:

Landlording (classic book)

Conforming Mortgage Loans

Debt to income ratio and other criteria:

Private lenders:

Non-profit, NACA:

Tech investing

The decline/death of cash

Miscellaneous stocks in a online economy, global economy and/or rebounding economy

  • UPS - online shopping and international package delivery
  • Fed Ex - online related shopping and international related shipping

Major economies and total debt to GDP

Trends, Predictions and stats

People who predicted 2008 crisis:

Trends:

Predictions and stats:


Stats:

The rise and decline of nations by Mancur Olson

The rise and decline of nations by Mancur Olson

Wealth distribution

Recession/depression proof businesses/jobs

Russia

East and economics

Michael Spence - Interview re: his book The Next Convergence

India and investing

China

China vs. India economies - Which has the best prospects?

Demographic winter/Aging Population and economics

File:Mountain yodel.jpg
Switzerland

(photo obtained from Flickr, see license agreement)

American echo boomers assisting economy:


Birth rate:

Demographic winter may not be as bad as first thought:

Religious vs. secular birthrates:

Early paper - Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century by Eric Kaufmann, Belfer Center, Harvard University/Birkbeck College, University of London

Dent Method of investing:

India, economics and fertility statistics:

World population, to 2050 - UN forecast:

U.S. Hispanics and economics:

Other:

Labor shortages, low fertility rates and immigration in developed countries

“Unless fertility rates dramatically improve,” Turnbull cautioned, “societies with birth rates substantially below replacement level will either dwindle into an ­insignificant fraction of their current ­numbers or be swamped by larger and larger waves of immigration.”[38]

US financial position and national deficit

Sound advice from King Solomon

Proverbs 10:12: "If you are slack in the day of distress, Your strength is limited."

Proverbs 21:5: "The plans of the diligent lead surely to advantage, But everyone who is hasty comes surely to poverty."

Financial collapse

Eurocrisis:


General financial collapse:

Morality and financial collapse

National statistics

Death spiral states and most atheistic cities

Most Business friendly states in the United States - 2012

Texas:

Florida:


Major trends

Robotics:

Localism movement

Taxes


Car

Income disparities

Arguments for


Arguments against

Books:

The Myth of Liberal Ascendancy: Corporate Dominance from the Great Depression to the Great Recession

Some causes

Other

Stats

Protestant work ethic

Academic research indicates that belief in hell/heaven and various religious heritages are associated with increased economic activity and lower corruption. [1][2] The biblical creation affirming United States has a high GDP relative to many evolution believing countries. [3]

Poverty of nations: A sustainable solution

Books - Economics

Forecasting - General

Experts and predictions

Prediction markets

Election betting odds

References

  1. ↑ [1]
  2. ↑ [2]
  3. ↑ [3]
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