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Politics


Contents

International relations and geopolitics YouTube channels, websites and podcasts

International relations:

Geopolitics:

Geopolitics and Empire

Geopolitics and Empire - Features people from the right, center and left (Conducts interviews with prominent international experts on a wide-range of topics. Past guests have included diplomats, government officials, whistleblowers, soldiers, spies, economists, academics, scientists, wealthy investors, dissidents, journalists, and musicians.):

Burning archive:

Popular International relations and geopolitics:

  • Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics (YouTube) - Pyotr Kurzin is a British-Russian expat who lives in Washington DC and graduated from Johns Hopkins Univesity.

Nikola Mikovic - Serbian (Tries to be objective realistic)

Pro-Western YouTube channels:

  • RANE (Related to Stratfor)

Pro-Western podcasts:

India:

Pro-Russia, semi anti-Western, anti-Western or pessimistic about the West/USA

Glen Diesen videos:

International relations websites - Pro-Western

Major powers: Western World, USA, European nations, China and Russia, World events and world history

Burning Archive

David Woo Unbound

Peter Zeihan

Stephen Kotkin lectures

The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

World Politics Review

Combines realist/liberal internationalist school perspective. Written by several hundred contributors from around the world, experts in a variety of disciplines.

Adam Tooze

Emmanuel Todd

  • Emmanuel Todd - Contrarian French historian, anthropologist, demographer, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies in Paris.

The changing character of war - Peter Zeihan

Current state of the world in terms of polarity and international relations

Biggest mistakes of view of international politics in terms of distortions are these 3: Geography is destiny (Mackinder), world is simply great power politics (Mearsheimer) and cycles of history (Turchin). See: Three mistakes geopolitics makes about history (Mackinder, Mearsheimer, Turchin). Better way to look at things is look at specific/unique circumstances. Theories/ideology should not trump reality/specific/unique history.

World is currently a mix of nationalism/cultures/global trade and political blocks (West vs. China/Russia/Iran/North Korea. Also, nonaligned countries. USA is still the strongest country in terms of economics, etc.).

Polarity (International relations)

Bipolar:

Middle Ground:

Multiple views discussed:

Multipolar:

Focuses on the rise of non-state actors and the state having less power:

Western World

USA

Economy:

US economic outlook:

US long term economic outlook:

USA 2030s economic depression:

Articles, leading power:

USA's power relative to other nations and the aging populations in the major powers:

US/China power competition

Canada

Europe

File:There are no atheists on a sinking ship.jpg
According to a September 2022 Ipsos poll, 7 in 10 Britons agree that the UK is in decline.[1]

As the HMS United Kingdom was going down, Britons could be heard saying, "We shouldn't have put Charles Darwin on our currency. God is not mocked. We are reaping what we sowed."

European News:

  • The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) - The Bologna Institute for Policy Research (BIPR) is the research division of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Europe, a leading American graduate school offering advanced degrees in international relations, international affairs and global risk.

Other:

Europe's anti-Americanism post start of Russia vs. Ukraine War:

Classical liberalism view:

Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent:

The deindustrialization of Germany/Europe (Europe's economic engine):

India

Websites:

YouTube:

Articles:

China

Economics:

Chinese politics and economics:

China and financial websites:

YouTube channels:

China:

China, leading economic indicators:

Length of modern, authoritarian/communist regimes:

China's property crisis:

Chinese economy: "Growth is slowing at an alarming pace. The most recent figures, for the three months to the end of June, were the worst in five quarters while consumer prices again threaten to tip into negative territory. More alarmingly, the three-year meltdown in its property market continues unabated. What once was chipping away at personal wealth is now running a wrecking ball through the economy, hitting terminally weak household consumption." [2]

US-China relations

Donald Trump and his China policy

China likely stuck in middle-income trap

China and debt

Chinese export strategy will not work this time

File:House-of-cards.jpg
In the coming years and decades, the slowing Chinese economy will show that it is a fragile house of cards.

"The U.S.'s steep tariff hikes on Chinese goods took effect on Friday after Beijing criticized the move as mutually destructive protectionism. The Biden administration announced in May that it was upholding tariffs on $300 billion worth of Trump administration tariffs after a four-year review.

Due to China having a significantly higher percentage of world exports than it did 25 years ago, China cannot export its way out of its economic problems because the world is not as able to absorb China's exports (See: China’s Export Game Won’t Work This Time, Forbes, April 15, 2024).

Biden hits China with steel tariffs
US trade chief calls for action to shield EV sector from China
Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60%

In 2023, China's exports made up around 18.9% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

According to World's Top Exports, the United States is one of China's top trading partners, accounting for 14.8% of China's total exports in 2023.

If USA starts decoupling from China, it could spur other countries to as well (Like a contagion). Plus, it would give other countries more bargaining power.

China's economy is already showing "economic cracks".

Video: Chinese economy if Trump is elected in 2024 and raises tariffs on Chinese imports up to as much as 60% ?

US tariffs against China may spark China-EU Trade War
Communist China's plan to address its property crisis will do tremendous damage to China's economic prospects

See: Chinese real estate crisis (2020–present)

Peter Zeihan on Chinese housing overbuild:

Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back

Venke: The property firm that could break China’s back, Economist, May 16, 2024

China and a potential balance sheet recession

Anti-China hawks

Pro-China doves

USA is an era of "cold peace"/frenemies era and not yet cold war yet

Taiwan

Japan

Japan YouTube channels:

Russia

Various Scenarios for Russia's future

Russia's entering stormy, uncharted, economic waters

"According to the Russian Central Bank, over $253 billion in private capital has left the country, and estimates suggest that up to one million highly skilled workers have emigrated, constituting about 10% of Russia's technology workforce and a third of its millionaires​, according to the Financial Times." - Russian Economy in 'Stormy Uncharted Waters,' Putin's Banking Chief Says, 2024

Potential stagflation or deep recession for Russia in 2025

"The Bank of Russia’s statements indicate the central bank sees the economy on the cusp of stagflation. Despite sanctions and labor shortages binding output growth, corporations and consumers don’t expect price increases to slow. They also don’t perceive double digit borrowing rates as particularly restrictive. The central bank is right to be worried — we expect inflation to continue running above policymakers’ 4% target, while GDP growth is likely to slow to 1%-1.5% in 2025." — Alex Isakov, Russia economist[4]

Russia and sales of natural gas:

Fertility rate and demographic crisis relative to Russia:


Alcoholism rising in Russia due to psychological tension related to the war in Ukraine - alcohol consumption is at a 9 year high:

  • But as supply in Russia has dwindled, demand has shot up. As db reported, the increased demand for alcoholic drinks is partly due to “psychological tension” caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. In 2023, the number of litres of alcohol consumed per person per year in Russia reached a nine-year high to eight litres, and may even be higher than that volume. Currently the per capita sales of absolute alcohol are growing in Russia. This clearly indicates an increase in consumption. This is how the population responds to difficulties,” said Evgeny Andreev, a leading researcher at the Centre for Demographic Research of the Russian Economic School (NES).[5].

Tremendous cost of wounded and PTSD/alcoholic veterans post war in Ukraine: Wounded Veterans, Wounded Economy: The Personnel Costs of Russia’s War


Will Russian assets be seized?

The limits of the Russian military:


File:512px-Changing the guards kremlin.jpeg
Goose stepping changing of the guards in Russia at the Kremlin in 2006.[2]

Russia economy and commentary by economists

Sergei Guriev (Economist):

Articles by Sergei Guriev:

Videos by Sergei Guriev:

Books by Sergei Guriev:

Alexandra Prokopenko:

Alexandra Prokopenko (Expert on Russian economic and monetary policy and the decision-making. From 2017 until early 2022 Alexandra worked at the Central Bank of Russia and at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Moscow. She is a former columnist for Vedomosti. She is a graduate of Moscow State University and holds an MA in Sociology from the University of Manchester:

Key articles by Alexandra Prokopenko:

Anders Aslund:


Jeffrey Sonnenfeld

Russia News


  • John Mearsheimer - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
  • Steve Turley - Middle of the road, but leans Russia
  • Dmitry Orlov - YouTube - Dmitry Orlov is reasonable person overall in some ways and intelligent, leans Russia (American engineer and writer raised in Russia until the age of 12. Witnesswed Collapse of Soviet Union)




Blogs:

Russian oil: Lower production and lower profits:

Economic problems:

Russian culture overview

Other cultural overview:

Religiosity percentages of Russians:

Essay: Why I am not bullish on Russia's future and The true impact of a year of war on Russia's economy

Russia and fertility rate and demographics:

Contemporary Russia:

Putin:

Is Vladimir Putin a beacon of family values or a complete failure in this matter?

Maps of Russia:

Ukraine:

Russians destroying churches and engaging in religious discrimination in Ukraine:

Russia's fertility rate and demographic crisis

"So far, Moscow has demonstrated long-term adeptness in its policies toward immigrants, relaxing regulations when they were most needed. For instance, it admitted more immigrants after the pandemic and during the war, gradually simplified the rules for granting citizenship, and compensated for the natural population decline through naturalisation. This flexible approach, regardless of the current social climate in the country, is likely to continue. Although this will not reverse the negative trends, it will significantly mitigate them to prevent a demographic collapse. However, Russia’s plans could be thwarted by a severe economic downturn, which would discourage immigrants from Central Asia and the Caucasus from choosing Russia as a destination for economic migration."[11]

"An increase in beatings, vandalism and episodes of racism against Central Asian migrants has been reported in Russia since the deadly attacks at Moscow's Crocus City Hall last Friday."[12]

Russian diaspora

"A large Russian diaspora (sometimes including Russian-speaking non-Russians), estimated at 25 million people, has developed all over the world, with notable numbers in the United States, Germany, Brazil, and Canada."[13] See also: Russian diaspora

Post Ukraine invasion Russian diaspora:

Russia is experiencing a large brain drain:

Will Jews Continue To Flee Russia in Large Numbers?


Many high-income people are fleeing Russia:


File:The places that millionaires are leaving 2022 to 2023.png
The places that millionares are leaving in 2023-2024. Russian is 4rth on the list.

Template:Clear

American views of Putin and Russia:

"Americans overwhelmingly rate Putin negatively: 88% say they do not have confidence in the Russian president to do the right thing regarding world affairs, with two-thirds saying they have no confidence in him at all. A similar share lacked confidence in him in 2023 (90%)." - Pew Research, May 8, 2024[14]

"As Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, Americans remain very negative toward Russia: 91% have an unfavorable view of the country, including 62% who say their views are very unfavorable. Just 7% in the U.S. have a favorable view of Russia. This is a similar level of negativity compared with last year’s survey, when 92% of Americans were negative toward Russia." - Pew Research, Pew Research, May 10, 2023[15]

Post Western World notion

Decline of nations:

Map of world by population size

Peter Zeihan's view

The historian Stephen Kotkin on 5 scenarios for Russia's future

Will Russia ever have good relations with Europe again? If so, will it happen relatively/somewhat soon or ever?

Con view

Cultures tend to change slow.

The website Cultural Front notes: Template:Cquote

Pro-view

Better demographics and a country being a stronger power

Countries by population

World economics and trends

Global weekly economic update

GNP by country

Per capita:

Total GNP:

2023

2024: Stephen Kotkin on international relations and geopolitics

World News

World news Western perspective:

World News - NonWestern perspective:

Non-Western international politics YouTube channels perspective:

World news. Data-driven UK YouTube video channel:

Israel

Times of Israel:

CBN News:

General:

  • JNS (BTW, JNS is also critical on ADL's Greenblatt woke stuff), INN, and at times center leaning I24, or left leaning - Ynet or TOI. ILH is center leaning. Note. JPost is usually center leaning when it states it's by "Jerusalem Post Staff," but it often posts pure Reuters stuff.

Israel and prophecy/Bible/miracles

Modern Israel fulfills biblical prophecy:

Prophecies about the land of Israel fulfilled in our lifetime: Is Modern Israel Fulfilling Prophecy? and Is the modern state of Israel the fullfillment of prophecy and Unveiling the mysteries of Israel: Four biblical prophecies being fulfilled right now.

Miracles

Six Day War

USA foreign policy: Interventionalism vs. Isolationism

Trends:

Pointless and costly wars such as the Iraq War and War in Afghanistan are very expensive. The renowned military strategist and general Sun Tzu wrote: "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." Among the USA public, a less interventionalist and more isolationist sentiment is growing - particularly among young people (See: Isolationalism is growing in the United States. Is this a good thing?). Of course, anything taken to an extreme can be a bad thing. The United States should stay engaged in the world - especially when it comes to the use of skillful diplomacy. At the same time, sometimes wars are unavoidable, but when a nation engages in a war, it should be a just war (See: Just War Theory).

Also, as the USA does more and more onshoring of its companies, there will be less and less of an incentive to be the world's policeman on the high seas (See: Deglobalization: The US Navy's Withdrawl as Global Protector).

NATO

Expansion of NATO

Pro-NATO expansion:

  • Stephen Kotkin on Russia’s argument to NATO expansion - anti-Russian/Putin argument on NATO expansion
  • "But it was Vladimir Putin himself who signed the Rome Declaration on 28 May 2002. The same piece of paper I signed, which enshrined the basic principles of territorial integrity and non-interference in other countries. He signed that. He can't blame anybody else."[16]

Historian Mary E. Sarotte on issue of whether the West promised no NATO expansion:

  • Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate by Mary E. Sarotte. ‎Yale University Press; First Edition (November 30, 2021)


Middle of the road on NATO expansion:

Anti-NATO expansion:

NATO's soft underbellys

China and Christianity

What would a post-communist China look like?

World map

World map by population

Major power politics in the 21st century for the foreseeable future

John Mearsheimer's view

Mearsheimer on US defense establishment likely to learn from the war in Ukraine

Mearsheimer argues that liberalism pulls a society apart due to disagreement on first principles and that is why it preaches tolerance, but nationalism is a glue that helps hold a society together.[17]. Mearsheimer says liberals don't like realist school of politics because it goes against the grain of idealism and they like to pretend that liberal democracies never engage in realpolitik type behavior.[18]

Background info that Mearsheimer doesn't discuss: China is in economic decline, but it might attack Taiwan to distract from domestic economic problems. But such a war would hurt it economically since it is a trading nation and the Chinese appear to know that. Chinese threats of attacking Taiwan may be political kabuki theatre for its domestic population to distract from its interal problems.

Limitations/problems of Mearsheimer's view

Peter Zeihan's view

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio

Changing civilizational world order

Globalization of trade

Books

Research and articles: Type of people who fall for partisan propaganda, government propaganda and foreign government propaganda

Military, wars, mass murder and expense

File:WWII collage.JPG
WWII photo montage

"The level of war in the world seems to have risen to 1989 (post-WWII) peak levels and holding, ending the pacific 1989-2006 era. Does this contradict the Decline of Violence (Pinker) / End of History (Fukuyama) theses, or is it just a blip?". - Professor Eric Kaufmann, Twitter/X.[20], See: War and Peace.

War, debt and the collapse of empires

How long do wars last?

Wars start out as wars of maneuver. If a war a war of maneuver doesn't achieve victory in 6 months, then it most cases it turns into a war of attrition (Wars of attrition are more common than insurgencies after a war).[21]

Wars are ended by removing an enemies will to fight and/or ability to fight (Productive capacity)[22]

  • "Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." - Sun Tzu
  • "What is essential in war is victory, not prolonged operations." - Sun Tzu
  • "There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare." - Sun Tzu

How long do post WWII wars last? Some statistics:

Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization & think tank analyzing global issues.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies article How Does It End? What Past Wars Tell Us about How to Save Ukraine Template:Cquote

File:Georgetown 2.jpg
Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that most wars lasting over a year extend to over a decade on average, resulting in sporadic clashes.[3]

Template:Clear

Just war vs. realist view of war

Winning the peace vs. winning a war

Military

Wars and warlike natures

Studies:

Democratic peace theory and related matters

Mass murder

Right-wing death squads vs. Left-wing murderous regimes

Military concepts

Military competence and incompetence

  • Task and purpose (Chris Cappy is a former US Army infantryman and Iraq Veteran. I cover geopolitics, history, weapon systems and all things military related — I do this from a veteran's perspective.).

Military competence

  • Deliberate Discomfort: How U.S. Special Operations Forces Overcome Fear and Dare to Win by Getting Comfortable Being Uncomfortable by Jason B.A. Van Camp and Andy Symonds. Ballast Books (February 18, 2020)

Military incompetence

  • On the Psychology of Military Incompetence by Norman F Dixon. Basic Books; Illustrated edition (May 31, 2016)
  • Military Incompetence: Why the American Military Doesn't Win (American Century) by Richard A. Gabriel. Hill & Wang Pub; First Edition (January 1, 1985)

Sanctions have a poor record in effectiveness with unintended consequences

International agreements

International agreements often fail to achieve their intended results

While international agreements certainly have their place and peace/peacemaking are always a good thing to pursue, research indicates that most international agreements fail to achieve their aims (International treaties have mostly failed to produce their intended effects, PNAS, August 1, 2022, 119 (32) e2122854119 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2122854119). Given men's frequent cases of poor thinking/planning and the sinfulness of human nature, this is not entirely surprising.

Also, as far as the Russian/Ukrainian peace negotiations, agreements are only as good as the trustworthiness of the people signing them. And unfortunately, Russia/Putin/Biden Administration are all corrupt and shown HERE as can be seen in points #1, #2 and #3.

And when I look at the Minsk Agreements, former agreements and promises mentioned below, I see Russia/Ukraine/West breaking agreements/promises. Also, as far as the Minsk Agreements, as can be seen below, Russia appears to be the biggest violaters of the Minsk Agreements, with Ukraine breaking the agreements also.

Russia, West, Ukraine and the West all acting badly in terms of Minsk Agreements, agreements and promises:

Russia acting badly:

TUESDAY, JUNE 7, 2016, U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations: "Russia has acted contrary to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, and the Incidents at Sea Agreement. Russia has altered the human rights landscape within its own country, decreasing democracy and begging questions about the future of governance, not just in Moscow, but across the Federation. Moreover, Russia has joined the civil war in Syria and begun militarizing the Arctic."[4]

West and Ukraine acting badly:

World politics, peak oil consumption, technology, forecasts, China and Russia

China, economic decline, green energy adoption and oil consumption:

USA's oil production:

  • Why U.S. Oil Production Is 6.5% Ahead Of Last Year’s Record Pace, September 2024. Ongoing growth in U.S. oil output remains a key driver of the global energy market. U.S. crude oil production will almost certainly set a second consecutive record this year, reflecting strong demand and advances in extraction technologies, particularly in shale oil. If Trump is elected, USA oil production may further improve.

Saudi oil production:

Nuclear power growing due to technological advances:

Short-term oil price forecast:

Forecast of world oil consumption:

Exxon Mobil forecast:

OPEC Forecasts:

Notes

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